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Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion


PrinceFrederickWx
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  • 3 weeks later...

Some mood flakes and a dusting to start the morning. But my current focus is on the upcoming pattern that looks to offer some real chances, including a strong west-based -NAO pattern. The first chance appears to be this weekend with a southern slider that, at first glance, appears to be a miss to the south. However, the track is very close to the benchmark for our area and it would not take much of a north trend to produce here. Temps are marginal, but evaporative cooling and melting along the system's northern edge could help produce enough diabatic cooling to support a changeover to snow.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 12/31/2025 at 8:01 AM, csnavywx said:

Some mood flakes and a dusting to start the morning. But my current focus is on the upcoming pattern that looks to offer some real chances, including a strong west-based -NAO pattern. The first chance appears to be this weekend with a southern slider that, at first glance, appears to be a miss to the south. However, the track is very close to the benchmark for our area and it would not take much of a north trend to produce here. Temps are marginal, but evaporative cooling and melting along the system's northern edge could help produce enough diabatic cooling to support a changeover to snow.

Well after this dud, we've got another shot this weekend. Finally a decent slider track. Boundary layer temps are super marginal and I expect we "waste" some liquid to cool the column via diabatic cooling. It's also during the middle of the day, but that's a little less of a showstopper in mid-Jan. The trough orientation isn't the best, so there's still a chance of a whiff, but there's at least some agreement between the RRFS, AIGFS and EC-AIFS on track now and it should be able to produce a decent band of accumulation on the northwest side.

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6 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Well after this dud, we've got another shot this weekend. Finally a decent slider track. Boundary layer temps are super marginal and I expect we "waste" some liquid to cool the column via diabatic cooling. It's also during the middle of the day, but that's a little less of a showstopper in mid-Jan. The trough orientation isn't the best, so there's still a chance of a whiff, but there's at least some agreement between the RRFS, AIGFS and EC-AIFS on track now and it should be able to produce a decent band of accumulation on the northwest side.

Just to confirm/clarify, you are speaking of the Sunday(1/18) system?

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13 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

How is that not warm and fuzzy? snow is snow lol

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk
 

I was meaning moving towards a slightly snowier solution. I've seen enough of these storms where I'm sitting on the edge of the precip shield in the model world and usually these events end up slightly further east so it's mostly clouds and 10 mins of pixie dust. 

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I was meaning moving towards a slightly snowier solution. I've seen enough of these storms where I'm sitting on the edge of the precip shield in the model world and usually these events end up slightly further east so it's mostly clouds and 10 mins of pixie dust. 
You're in Salisbury, right? Seems like you and I are in the corridor that's ground zero, for lack of a better term

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk

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