Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 6

[bubba hotep]

Surprised how many places are opening tomorrow with the snow totals being bandied about

 

A lot of places have been closed for the last two days and the early message this evening was, "mehhh, no big deal, over early, melts for drive home" but seemed to leave out the "getting there" part. 

[jhamps10]

A lot of places have been closed for the last two days and the early message this evening was, "mehhh, no big deal, over early, melts for drive home" but seemed to leave out the "getting there" part. 

 

yup, everyone was like oh hey we can get home, but nobody seems to care about how your going to get there in the morning.. the heaviest snow is supposed to hit during the rush hour so that will be interesting to say the least.

[bubba hotep]

I'm not even going to post the 00z NAM 4K snow maps, nearly pornographic! 

[Roy]

Yeah all the schools are saying no decision until 5 a.m.

[Captmorg70]

I'm not even going to post the 00z NAM 4K snow maps, nearly pornographic!

Haha thought the same thing

[cheese007]

yup, everyone was like oh hey we can get home, but nobody seems to care about how your going to get there in the morning.. the heaviest snow is supposed to hit during the rush hour so that will be interesting to say the least.

Last year at my campus they gave the go ahead for school to start even though they knew snow was coming and it was yet to fall. Ended up sliding through two intersections and getting to campus only to have class immediatly canceled. Bonus was the snow melted soon after. Was the February event for those curious

[Quixotic1]

Believe it or not, I am seeing flakes at the Frisco AThletic Center. Not a lot, but not flurries either....

[jhamps10]

Last year at my campus they gave the go ahead for school to start even though they knew snow was coming and it was yet to fall. Ended up sliding through two intersections and getting to campus only to have class immediatly canceled. Bonus was the snow melted soon after. Was the February event for those curious

 

heh I remember that one... the office I was working for told us to go home at 2, which was right when it started melting lol

[bubba hotep]

Believe it or not, I am seeing flakes at the Frisco AThletic Center. Not a lot, but not flurries either....

 

[aggiegeog]

It sure had been interesting watching the models runs today. The heavy snow band has been shown all over the place. Not sure what to go with. The NAM and short range models have def adjusted this west since the afternoon. Not sure what I expect right now.

[Captmorg70]

Here's the 4k NAM btw. A little bit of sleet may be mixed in. Also it's at 10:1 ratio but probably won't be that high.

[bubba hotep]

Looks like all the NE burbs are down to 32 or below and DFW is down to 33.  Wow, radar is blowing up! 

[jhamps10]

Dan Henry is bumping up totals north of DFW because of colder temps... didn't give the numbers yet but said he is bumping them up.. details coming shortly lol talk about a tease

[Quixotic1]

That gif is awesome. In the words of the movie Platoon: "they ain't waiting til later. They're coming now."

[bubba hotep]

FWD mentioned in the aviation update that confidence is increasing in the area seeing heavy snow. I wonder if we will see an upgrade to Warning? David? 

[bubba hotep]

Down to 31

[cheese007]

heh I remember that one... the office I was working for told us to go home at 2, which was right when it started melting lol

I'll be mad if they cancel right after my exam lol. Happened to a friend last year

[bubba hotep]

For those worried about ratios, the NAM 4K spits out nearly 1" of QPF for the NE burbs. The soundings that I was looking at earlier would probably be in the 8:1 range, now if you adjusted them to reflect the colder than modeled temps at the surface...  (wild card is what does the whole column end up looking like) 

[DFWWeather]

FWD mentioned in the aviation update that confidence is increasing in the area seeing heavy snow. I wonder if we will see an upgrade to Warning? David? 

 

Looks like the Winter Weather Advisory will remain for now for DFW Metroplex. They are going with 2 to 4 inch accumulations officially.

[bubba hotep]

I'll be mad if they cancel right after my exam lol. Happened to a friend last year

 

I can remember getting hurricane cancels and it being sunny, that was awesome! Going to school for weeks without power after Andrew... not awesome. 

[DFWWeather]

FWD has changed forecast from all snow to a rain/snow mix in the grids. Interesting...wonder if they are thinking this might all fall as rain?

[NTXYankee]

For those worried about ratios, the NAM 4K spits out nearly 1" of QPF for the NE burbs. The soundings that I was looking at earlier would probably be in the 8:1 range, now if you adjusted them to reflect the colder than modeled temps at the surface...  (wild card is what does the whole column end up looking like)

Your wild card is what I'm wondering about too. I think there could be a period of sleet then the heavy snow.

[bubba hotep]

FWD has changed forecast from all snow to a rain/snow mix in the grids. Interesting...wonder if they are thinking this might all fall as rain?

 

Yea, they adjusted the grids at some point this evening.  I went from Snow and 2-4" to Rain/Snow 1-2", thought that was odd given the model data coming in.  At this point, it's almost go time, dig in and make your best call. 

 

They mentioned the RAP coming in dryer but I haven't looked at it in days.  Maybe they are going with the RAP and 12z Euro/EPS?

[DFWWeather]

My best call is someone is going to get clobbered and someone is going to bust...

 

Steve McCauley's stat method is usually pretty spot on. Coupled with the latest model data. What a call! Wouldn't be surprised to see a Warning issued in the morning for parts of the DFW Metro anyway.

 

There lies a lot of the NWS confusion right there. They have so many different products each saying a different accumulation amount.

[Captmorg70]

The RAP is coming in drier. But also everything that has developed out west disappears after the first frame. It kinda looks lost

[Captmorg70]

Here's the 0Z GFS

[bubba hotep]

Here's the 0Z GFS

 

Looks like 0.5 - 0.75" QPF area wide...  I bet there is some chair throwing and table flipping over at the FWD office  

[Captmorg70]

Looks like 0.5 - 0.75" QPF area wide...  I bet there is some chair throwing and table flipping over at the FWD office

Yep - nice .5 slice where the purple is

[bubba hotep]

Updated call from Dan, I wonder if he will bump again if the Euro falls in line?

 

[bubba hotep]

Updated call from Chris: