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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2


Trent
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2 hours ago, NEOH said:

Good disco from the WPC on the Friday/Saturday storm. Interesting that the euro jumped so far west last night... it probably has been the least consistent model with this storm but hard to ignore it.



 


 

We are definitely riding a fine line.  12z GFS still keeps us in it,  although it did move west some. 

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2 hours ago, dta1984 said:

We are definitely riding a fine line.  12z GFS still keeps us in it,  although it did move west some. 

And just like that the 12z comes east... significantly. It's going to be fun watching the models the next few days. If I had to guess, I'd say west of 71 in Ohio jackpots while we mix for quite some time. Looks like the one thing we want is the low to dig as far south as possible before it turns northeast.

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On 1/8/2018 at 1:18 PM, dta1984 said:

2.5" event total here.  Just drizzle now, temp 33.  

Still looking good next weekend.   If anything I'd be more worried about a miss to the southeast. 

Ha! You jinxed the storm DTA. Crazy trends with the models. We'll see what happens with the overnight runs but definitely looking like a less than impressive event after looking at 12z. Still a decent storm but if trends continue down this path we'll be too far west for anything appreciable.

The melting has started. Probably won't be much snow left by Friday morning.

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19 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Ha! You jinxed the storm DTA. Crazy trends with the models. We'll see what happens with the overnight runs but definitely looking like a less than impressive event after looking at 12z. Still a decent storm but if trends continue down this path we'll be too far west for anything appreciable.

The melting has started. Probably won't be much snow left by Friday morning.

Haha most everything today has been weaker and east.  The nam runs have been super juiced though and further west.  

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25 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Haha most everything today has been weaker and east.  The nam runs have been super juiced though and further west.  

And there's the 18z with a nice thump. Huge difference's with the various models. OHWeather might want to wait until after the storm to post his snowfall map.

Edit: Just noticed CLE issued a watch for the Central counties on Northeast...

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches, with localized amounts
up to 12  inches are possible. Ice accumulations of one tenth to around a  quarter of an inch are possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest Pennsylvania and north central
  and northeast Ohio.
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2 hours ago, dta1984 said:

The cle discussion mentions lake enhancement, but seems to discount it due to ice cover.  I'd have to think the warmup we're getting will melt and move some of it.  

The ice will move around quite a bit so lake enhancement will help. CLE seems to think the only open water is out east but that's not the case. We aren't dealing with a solidly frozen lake.

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Watching these models the past few days emphasizes how incredibly difficult it is for Cleveland to score a 6"+ synoptic storm. Still plenty of time for things to turn around, but it would seem this will either end up being a run of the mill 3-6" snowfall or a narrow miss. 

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12 minutes ago, Trent said:

Watching these models the past few days emphasizes how incredibly difficult it is for Cleveland to score a 6"+ synoptic storm. Still plenty of time for things to turn around, but it would seem this will either end up being a run of the mill 3-6" snowfall or a narrow miss. 

Yep, now the nam slams Youngstown.   Crazy the waffling that has gone on.  Still... I like that we are in the middle of the recent bullseyes being shown.... Sandusky and now Youngstown.  Maybe it'll wiggle back?

Edit;  3km nam looks good

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The snow cover is starting to get down to patches. Temps held around 47 IMBY all night. Surprised to see CLE at 56 this morning... that's a pretty large temp spread. Speaking of spreads, here are estimated snowfall totals from the latest model runs (estimated from the snowfall maps) --

GFS - 6-8"

Euro - 3-5"

RGEM - 6-8"

NAM3k - 8-10"

NAM12k - 2-4"

 

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We may have a last second bump NW as the storm actually develops.  Everyone gets a good period of sleet tomorrow afternoon which may wreck the roads and have a big impact even if the snow underwhelms.  For snow/sleet totals thinking 3-6" for Cleveland and 6-9" a little farther south towards Akron/Youngstown, but that's not a final forecast.  When I make my final call maps this afternoon I'll post them, still don't have a great feel/handle for this storm.  Thermals don't look great for LES behind the storm but maybe it adds an inch or two locally. 

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52 minutes ago, OHweather said:

We may have a last second bump NW as the storm actually develops.  Everyone gets a good period of sleet tomorrow afternoon which may wreck the roads and have a big impact even if the snow underwhelms.  For snow/sleet totals thinking 3-6" for Cleveland and 6-9" a little farther south towards Akron/Youngstown, but that's not a final forecast.  When I make my final call maps this afternoon I'll post them, still don't have a great feel/handle for this storm.  Thermals don't look great for LES behind the storm but maybe it adds an inch or two locally. 

Its not often we hope for a NW bump with a storm... usually hoping for the opposite. I kind of like where we sit at this point. Given the dynamics its hard to believe we aren't seeing a stronger storm on the models... but I'm no meteorologist. In addition to the track and intensity the models seems to be expanding and contracting the precip shield with every run. I have very little confidence either way. Just a guess but I'd go with 5-8" for areas east of 71 in northeast ohio. I do think that lake enahncement will boost totals in the lakeshore counties. Hoping we don't waste a lot of the precip on sleet.

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CLE issued a WSW. Surprised they are calling for a 1/4 inch of ice. That would explain the lower snowfall totals. 6-8" of system snow on top of that much ice wouldn't be good.

..WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. A glaze of ice up to a quarter of inch is expected 
Friday afternoon, then accumulating snow later Friday and Friday night. Total snow  accumulations will
 average 3 to 6 inches outside of the snowbelt and 6 to 8 inches in the snowbelt.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest Pennsylvania and northeast Ohio.
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12 minutes ago, MAIDEsNow said:

Indeed a surprise...a "glaze" and "1/4 inch" of ice are not synonymous imo.

Went to the top of our big coaster about 2 hours ago. A far as I could see, not a lick of ice, save for a little along the shore. Maybe some lake enhancement will be in play.

 

Looking west:

 

 

Looking east

 

Nice view up there! Even better not to see ice. The southerly winds have probably pushed to the canadian shoreline. The snow is just about melted here and the rain tonight should finish things off.

This has been a strange storm to track. Thought it was going to be a true apps runner but has evolved into a weak low riding a cold front. We'll see what happens.

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Posted this in the main thread, will post it here too.  Went NW of the Euro as obs appear to suggest there is potential for some last minute NW bump, but I'm still not confident as a couple pieces of hi-res guidance (the ARW and HRRRx in particular) have a lot more snow, but the Euro/Canadian are both like 50-75 miles SE of where I have the swath of heaviest snow.  Lake enhancement looks minor, and lake effect on Saturday also looks minor.  Could that boost totals by an inch or two somewhere, sure, but thermals don't look good for LES with a very low inversion during the synoptic snow and even on Saturday as the storm pulls away. 

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13 hours ago, OHweather said:

Posted this in the main thread, will post it here too.  Went NW of the Euro as obs appear to suggest there is potential for some last minute NW bump, but I'm still not confident as a couple pieces of hi-res guidance (the ARW and HRRRx in particular) have a lot more snow, but the Euro/Canadian are both like 50-75 miles SE of where I have the swath of heaviest snow.  Lake enhancement looks minor, and lake effect on Saturday also looks minor.  Could that boost totals by an inch or two somewhere, sure, but thermals don't look good for LES with a very low inversion during the synoptic snow and even on Saturday as the storm pulls away. 

 

Nice forecast. The models continue to waffle back and forth on snowfall amounts...but the trend pretty clear that areas to the east will see the heaviest snows. Where's that last minute NW shift when we need it?! Didn't take very long to melt all the snow so we will be starting fresh. Even the piles are almost gone at this point. Look forward to seeing what happens later today.

What is causing the the low to shift to the EC when it hits PA... The northern stream energy pushing down?

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Should be interesting to see how it all plays out, and which models had a better handle on things. 

Seems like these changeover events have high bust potential.  A quicker changeover and less sleet would mean more snow, and less if it takes longer.  

Kind of funny looking at the cle winter page. Chardon has a range of 1 - 14" with a mean of 6".  Alot of variance lol. 

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15 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Bummer. Can you elaborate?

Edit: 12z NAM's weren't that bad. That low take a sudden jog east though.

The issue I'm seeing is the next northern stream shortwave is diving in from the NW just a little too fast.  The low is developing good over the south, but that northern piece coming in gives it that last second nudge east, so we're on the outside looking in on the area of better snow tonight.  It also probably jumps to the coast a little faster. 

EDIT: Didn't see your post from about 45 minutes ago.  Yeah, it's the northern stream causing the storm to turn east last second and preventing a NW shift.  Storm is developing good over the south so I think we woud've been hit really good if the northern stream shortwave was even a few hours slower.  Ugh. 

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25 minutes ago, OHweather said:

The issue I'm seeing is the next northern stream shortwave is diving in from the NW just a little too fast.  The low is developing good over the south, but that northern piece coming in gives it that last second nudge east, so we're on the outside looking in on the area of better snow tonight.  It also probably jumps to the coast a little faster. 

EDIT: Didn't see your post from about 45 minutes ago.  Yeah, it's the northern stream causing the storm to turn east last second and preventing a NW shift.  Storm is developing good over the south so I think we woud've been hit really good if the northern stream shortwave was even a few hours slower.  Ugh. 

Thanks for the info. The low looks good down south. Wonder if that could be enough to slow down the shortwave. Oh well. This storm has been a mess to track.

Edit: 34/33 IMBY. That didn't take long.

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It really is amazing how you could bank on a widespread 6-12" synoptic storm across NE Ohio almost every year or at least every other year. Now, it's becoming once every 8 years. 

CLE had a 3.7" seasonal snowfall deficit as of yesterday. It practically takes a miracle pattern just to get close to normal these days.

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