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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2


Trent
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1 hour ago, OHweather said:

Perhaps I over measured a bit, but had 0.3" yesterday morning and 3.8" last night. Had a few hours of moderate to heavy lake enhanced snow.  

Should be a general 1-2" snow tonight, but a narrow band of moderate high-ratio snow may survive this far to the east and drop a narrow corridor (a county or two wide) of 3-4" of fluffy snow near Cleveland. 

There were some heavy returns on radar near 271/480 last night. It was windy and the snow turned fluffy so perhaps I under measured. I'd gladly give up some of these smaller snows for a large one. Tough to get a big synoptic system in this pattern.

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6 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Wonder if the heavier snow might go further south tonight... just looking at the radar and hrrr it would appear that way.

I was initially concerned the best banding may go a bit to our north, but looking like it may be right across the Cleveland area...it should slide ENE once it gets into Ohio.  We will see if there's enough banding left to help ratios out...I think they'll be better than 10:1, but by how much is the question.  Also thinking the potential is increased a bit for some decent snow showers/possibly squalls along the front during the pre-dawn hours...with some low-level instability showing up on the models and a nice accompanying vort max along the front.  All in all, thinking we look good for 2-3" tonight...if there's still enough banding for moderate rates and higher ratios could see a bit more, but I'm on the fence about it.  If we keep racking up these 2-3" snows it eventually adds up.  Pretty good dynamics with the Wednesday storm, so if the shortwaves interact properly (and don't just shear out the southern stream wave) that could be a positive trender in the last minute.  At the moment thinking 2-4" of a wetter snow for that one. 

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It will be interesting to watch the evolution of tomorrow's storm. 12z NAM has a good low position for Ohio... but not much precip in the NW side. Seems like Northern Ohio is sandwiched between a precip shield to the NW and SE for a few hours before filling in. Hoping for a more expansive precip shield as I'm not sure what would cause the gap over this area.

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7 minutes ago, NEOH said:

It will be interesting to watch the evolution of tomorrow's storm. 12z NAM has a good low position for Ohio... but not much precip in the NW side. Seems like Northern Ohio is sandwiched between a precip shield to the NW and SE for a few hours before filling in. Hoping for a more expansive precip shield as I'm not sure what would cause the gap over this area.

It's a gap between lift from the northern stream shortwave and southern stream shortwave since they aren't really phased.  It's definitely annoying if it verifies like that.  Still possible the storm intensifies a bit quicker than modeled and fills it in faster. 

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1 hour ago, NEOH said:

It will be interesting to watch the evolution of tomorrow's storm. 12z NAM has a good low position for Ohio... but not much precip in the NW side. Seems like Northern Ohio is sandwiched between a precip shield to the NW and SE for a few hours before filling in. Hoping for a more expansive precip shield as I'm not sure what would cause the gap over this area.

Some of the splits in precip being shown are brutal. We definitely have the benefit of being further east, which looks ok so far.  Need the two areas to come closer to phasing as ohweather said. 

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2 hours ago, OHweather said:

It's a gap between lift from the northern stream shortwave and southern stream shortwave since they aren't really phased.  It's definitely annoying if it verifies like that.  Still possible the storm intensifies a bit quicker than modeled and fills it in faster. 

Thanks for the info. This is starting to feel like the hyped storm a few weeks back. I think we ended up with 2 or 3" which seems plausible once again.

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8 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Thanks for the info. This is starting to feel like the hyped storm a few weeks back. I think we ended up with 2 or 3" which seems plausible once again.

Yeah the screw hole has me worried as it will be somewhere near Cleveland.  As it stands, a few hours of moderate, dense snow falling near rush hour could be a high impact 2-3" for us, but if that hole takes longer to fill in it could cut that in half.  And I really don't have a gut feeling on whether it will or not. 

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2 hours ago, OHweather said:

Yeah the screw hole has me worried as it will be somewhere near Cleveland.  As it stands, a few hours of moderate, dense snow falling near rush hour could be a high impact 2-3" for us, but if that hole takes longer to fill in it could cut that in half.  And I really don't have a gut feeling on whether it will or not. 

Just about every model has the screw hole... so much for the models not being consistent! A low in western MD on the WV border typically produces for OH. What's surprising is to see so much snow forecasted for areas NE of here in WNY. Their proximity to the low isn't any better than this area. The models have the majority of the precip to the North and Northeast of the low with very little on the backside which seems odd. 

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4 minutes ago, OHweather said:

It's definitely been borderline ripping here.  No complaints.  Sharp cutoff, Westlake maybe got an inch judging by radar.  

Definitely a sharp gradient. We've been lucky on the east side. Looks like the current low position is a bit further westy than what was modeled.

 

NEsf.fronts.gif

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13 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Definitely a sharp gradient. We've been lucky on the east side. Looks like the current low position is a bit further westy than what was modeled.

 

NEsf.fronts.gif

Yeah it looks to be a bit.  Go figure, the precip is pulling away an hour or two faster than modeled though. There's that nice band near Toledo that the hi-res NAM brings through Cleveland around noon, so perhaps we add another half inch or inch on top of where we're at now.  

The airmass is unstable in the low levels and another shortwave goes by this evening.  Even tho moisture flux is quite limited by the ice now, between the lift from the shortwave, unstable low levels, moisture from Lake Michigan and limited moisture from Lake Erie it wouldn't surprise me if we saw some minor lake effect tonight.  It'll have a lot more fluff than this morning's snow so it could fluff out enough to accumulate a bit in some areas.  

There's that weird overrunning event late Thursday night-Friday night.  Best looks to be to our west/northwest but some models tease maybe a 1-3" or so snow for the northernmost row or two of counties on Friday in OH.  Also another potential system Sunday-Monday...not huge by perhaps another 1-4" synoptic snow potential as it looks.  We are adding up the snow.  I'll add up my spread sheets sooner or later but I'm coming up on 65" for the season I'd imagine.  If late February and March don't suck 90" seems doable for me which I'd imagine is at least 10" above normal.  

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10 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Yeah it looks to be a bit.  Go figure, the precip is pulling away an hour or two faster than modeled though. There's that nice band near Toledo that the hi-res NAM brings through Cleveland around noon, so perhaps we add another half inch or inch on top of where we're at now.  

The airmass is unstable in the low levels and another shortwave goes by this evening.  Even tho moisture flux is quite limited by the ice now, between the lift from the shortwave, unstable low levels, moisture from Lake Michigan and limited moisture from Lake Erie it wouldn't surprise me if we saw some minor lake effect tonight.  It'll have a lot more fluff than this morning's snow so it could fluff out enough to accumulate a bit in some areas.  

There's that weird overrunning event late Thursday night-Friday night.  Best looks to be to our west/northwest but some models tease maybe a 1-3" or so snow for the northernmost row or two of counties on Friday in OH.  Also another potential system Sunday-Monday...not huge by perhaps another 1-4" synoptic snow potential as it looks.  We are adding up the snow.  I'll add up my spread sheets sooner or later but I'm coming up on 65" for the season I'd imagine.  If late February and March don't suck 90" seems doable for me which I'd imagine is at least 10" above normal.  

Surprised that the precip isn't filling in between the band out by Toledo and this area. I'd imagine of the lake was open the radar would look a little differently. We've had a good run of snow to start February so no complaints.

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4 hours ago, vpbob21 said:

Only a few tenths out here.  Glad to see you guys out east cashing in.

That's a bummer. Western Cuyahoga on west didn't do very well with this system. Still keeping an eye on the overrunning event. The Ukie was a huge hit for northern Ohio, but an outlier at this point. Several inches is certainly possible, with larger amounts not out of the question.

CLE brought up an interesting point in the AFD yesterday -

The system for Friday into Saturday still leaves much to be desired when it comes to details. A west-east baroclinic zone will 
set up across the lower Great Lakes for Friday. Broad lift is expected with favorably positioned jet energy developing overhead.
Snow aught to break out Thursday night and continue into Friday. Any more moderate snow will likely be confined to a narrow corridor. Latest runs seem
to have pushed this a bit more northward along a line from Toledo to Cleveland to Erie. Would be hesitant to push it too far north
with a cold lake to overcome and in the absence of a stronger wave. So for now have a 3 to 6 inch swath across the far northern 
counties for Thursday night/Friday.



 

 

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1 hour ago, dta1984 said:

Saw the uk map in the other thread and it's definitely a huge hit for us for the weekend.  Euro doesn't look bad either..

CLE's afternoon disco didn't offer anything. They normally don't offer much insight so no surprise. I believe the energy gets sampled tonight so we'll see what the overnight model runs show. A shift south would be great.

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In the "it just wants to snow" category, had a little flare up of very high ratio lake effect here the last couple of hours that did deposit a few tenths.  With a little shortwave going by tonight and some Lake Michigan moisture, suspect we'll see 1-3" of very fluffy lake effect in some areas tonight into Thursday morning in NE OH.  The remaining lake effect may shift across NW PA Thursday morning and early afternoon as the wind backs with a potential light accumulation.  

As for the overrunning event, it's looking more likely we see at least a 1-3" type snow in the Cleveland area late Thursday night/Friday morning.  After that, it's a question of how far north the snow lifts Friday afternoon into Friday night.  At the moment it still looks more likely to shift to our north at that point and shut off the snow while areas 50 miles to our north get good snow, but there has been some bump south in the models today and yes, we start getting partial sampling tonight and better sampling for tomorrow's 12z runs.  I don't think we are in a great spot for a big snow, but it's still well within the margin of error at this point.  The northernmost counties in NW OH, including Toledo, are in better position, and Erie County, PA may be far enough north as well.  

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2 hours ago, NEOH said:

Will wait until the 12z models roll in before waving the white flag. Northern Ohio will definitely be riding a fine line. Definitely a mid-Winter feel outside with snow still flying this morning.

GFS and rgem aren't terrible,  Cmc is very close and the nam is flat out terrible.   So close.....  

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