Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

[LakeEffectOH]

1 minute ago, NEOH said:

Seems like the 12z models shifted south a bit... or maybe a quicker transfer to the EC. Still like where we sit at this point if the energy can hang back longer. 

Thinking the biggest risk is the transfer of energy to the coastal low.

[dta1984]

3 minutes ago, LakeEffectOH said:

Thinking the biggest risk is the transfer of energy to the coastal low.

Ya it seems we have had this situation in the past, it's helped us a few times by hanging on longer and also gone the opposite way.  Let's hope it hangs on longer before transferring!

[LakeEffectOH]

3 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Ya it seems we have had this situation in the past, it's helped us a few times by hanging on longer and also gone the opposite way.  Let's hope it hangs on longer before transferring!

It looks like most models are showing us keeping a deformation zone of light snow into Monday morning, so that's good.  It's the transfer that's always so unpredictable. 

[NEOH]

Here's a recap of total precip from the 12z runs... fairly uniform and with ratio's around 15:1 that's a good storm. 

GFS AI - .79

GFS - .71

CMC - .75

 

 

[LakeEffectOH]

47 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Here's a recap of total precip from the 12z runs... fairly uniform and with ratio's around 15:1 that's a good storm. 

GFS AI - .79

GFS - .71

CMC - .75

 

 

Those numbers make sense.

Snow equivalent:

GFS AI - .79/~12"

GFS - .71/~10.5"

CMC - .75/~11"

  

[dta1984]

7 minutes ago, LakeEffectOH said:

Those numbers make sense.

Snow equivalent:

GFS AI - .79/~12"

GFS - .71/~10.5"

CMC - .75/~11"

  

Seems like consistency for a 10-12" range.  Maybe more if the coastal transfer is delayed.  Just hoping we don't waste too much qpf overcoming the dry air that's in place.  

[NEOH]

10 minutes ago, LakeEffectOH said:

Those numbers make sense.

Snow equivalent:

GFS AI - .79/~12"

GFS - .71/~10.5"

CMC - .75/~11"

  

12z euro is .77". Tight cut off to the NW. Hopefully we can avoid any further shifts. Seems like the primary low always winds up a little more NW than forecast so hopefully that holds true. 

[dta1984]

3 minutes ago, NEOH said:

12z euro is .77". Tight cut off to the NW. Hopefully we can avoid any further shifts. Seems like the primary low always winds up a little more NW than forecast so hopefully that holds true. 

I caught a reference to this in the cle discussion 

The past several model cycles have seen a NW shift in the track of the surface low and resultant axis of heaviest snowfall, and there is still time for further refinements to the track as model guidance resolves the aforementioned phasing. Northern and southern stream jet phasing is known to pull systems farther NW than models initially indicate, so this NW trend has not been surprising

[LakeEffectOH]

23 minutes ago, NEOH said:

12z euro is .77". Tight cut off to the NW. Hopefully we can avoid any further shifts. Seems like the primary low always winds up a little more NW than forecast so hopefully that holds true. 

Updated list:

Snow equivalent:

GFS AI - .79/~12"

GFS - .71/~10.5"

CMC - .75/~11"

ECMWF - .77/~11.5"

Average snow accumulation per 12z models: ~11"