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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2


Trent
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33 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Picked up 4” of lake effect last night. That was a surprise. Looks great with the ice on the trees.

Yep definitely very scenic out there this morning!  I came up with 5.25" measuring off my deck.  Includes whatever fell throughout the day yesterday as well. 

 

20220226_095113.jpg

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Definitely read to close the books on this winter. Pretty good winter overall considering how bad December was. Jan and Feb were cold and snowy... and we had snow cover for an extended period of time despite the brief thaws. DTA is probably keeping track but I'd guess we are at or slightly above average with snowfall at this point. Unless April 2007 comes along I'm ready to move on to Spring. That was the heaviest heart attack snow I've ever experienced. 

 

Eastersnow1.png

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17 hours ago, NEOH said:

Definitely read to close the books on this winter. Pretty good winter overall considering how bad December was. Jan and Feb were cold and snowy... and we had snow cover for an extended period of time despite the brief thaws. DTA is probably keeping track but I'd guess we are at or slightly above average with snowfall at this point. Unless April 2007 comes along I'm ready to move on to Spring. That was the heaviest heart attack snow I've ever experienced. 

 

Eastersnow1.png

Same here, ready for Spring unless it's a big event.   I'm around 82" for the season including the 1" that fell last night.  It's been a good season, and definitely one where storms for the most part have trended in our favor.  

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Only have one full forecast package this week, but it included the entirety of the upcoming wintry system Friday evening through Saturday. Here were the snow grids...

StormTotalSnowWeb1.thumb.jpg.c2edbfc54d81081f2f006c11ee709410.jpg

The synoptic snow is odd...a band of snow driven by mid-upper level lift well northwest of a deepening surface low will gradually slide across the area Friday evening through Saturday morning, with mainly light to moderate snow that can start turning heavier into Saturday. Current issues are that the trough looks positively tilted until Saturday morning and the low jumps quickly to the east coast. Because of that, most models keep the band of synoptic snow somewhat progressive and don't really rip the heavier rates until it exits to our east/northeast on Saturday. Some models, such as the Canadian, are a little less progressive and support over 6" of snow from Lorain and Mansfield points east. It wouldn't take a huge change on the other models to get that, but for now the forecast leaned on the more progressive camp which has much more model support. 

There will likely be some lake enhancement to the synoptic snow starting late Friday night and continuing until it exits by midday Saturday with a NNW flow and 850mb temperatures cooling enough for lake enhancement. That may be a several hour window in which the higher terrain from Lorain and Medina Counties points east get a nice boost into Saturday morning. Pure lake effect takes over Saturday afternoon and evening...it's a mixed signal set-up with moderate to extreme instability and fairly high inversions, but a brisk NW flow and fairly dry air. My guess is most areas don't get a ton of additional accumulation from the lake effect, but given the instability if any upstream connections set-up they could have some intensity. It will get quite cold and windy into Saturday so there will be some blowing/drifting snow, it will feel like January instead of March. 

My impression is that I mainly like our current snow grids (I'd hope so since I put them together), but I do have a sneaky feeling that the lake enhancement component pushes those hills south/southeast of the lake a little higher than our map...and we'll see if the true lake effect later Saturday into Saturday night adds much more or not. We'll see if there's any trend to a more amped system and more synoptic snow farther west, but we'd need to see that trend commence rather soon. At the moment my guess is we'll need advisories from roughly Lorain, Ashland, and Richland points east, with a lower chance for a few counties seeing warning amounts if the lake enhancement over-performs...or perhaps in some of our southeastern counties if the synoptic snow trends less progressive (which I kind of doubt). 

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Everything has trended even more progressive in the 0z and 12z runs...feel like even the above map is probably optimistic. Could see up to a few inches in the higher terrain SE of the lake as there will still be some lake enhancement to the light synoptic snow and some lake effect snow showers Saturday afternoon and evening, but this is looking like a minor event in the grand scheme. No big snow threats on the horizon...I'd like one more good snow, but the weather last weekend was quite nice and it's nice to be able to do things outside that aren't snow related now that the pack has completely melted, so I won't argue if we slowly fade into spring from here on out. 

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1 hour ago, OHweather said:

Everything has trended even more progressive in the 0z and 12z runs...feel like even the above map is probably optimistic. Could see up to a few inches in the higher terrain SE of the lake as there will still be some lake enhancement to the light synoptic snow and some lake effect snow showers Saturday afternoon and evening, but this is looking like a minor event in the grand scheme. No big snow threats on the horizon...I'd like one more good snow, but the weather last weekend was quite nice and it's nice to be able to do things outside that aren't snow related now that the pack has completely melted, so I won't argue if we slowly fade into spring from here on out. 

Yep, I'm hoping for nothing more than a frontal passage with a few snow showers at this point. Spring doesn't come easily around here unfortunately. 

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Right around 4" here.  Looks like a pretty widespread 3-5" east of 271.  This afternoon could be interesting.. a few short rangers bring a lake effect band near the area with what looks like an upstream connection.  

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Got a little over 3" here, not too shabby. The lake effect so far is quite cellular and battling dry air but has upticked a bit with a couple hints at an upstream connection, one into Lake/northern Geauga, another into Ashtabula County, and maybe another one trying to drift towards the southwest side. We'll see if any of these sustain enough to drop some accumulations this evening as the winds weaken a bit, that may help improve organization despite the dry air. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Not that we want it, but it's looking like a fairly snowy weekend especially in the higher terrain east of Cleveland, through NW PA and southwest of Buffalo. A couple of troughs move through during the day Saturday and will likely cause upticks in rain/snow (mainly snow in the hills, but may mix with rain in the lower terrain as the boundary layer will be fairly "warm" during the day Saturday). There's a deep enough layer of moisture and steep lapse rates to go with it, so the snow may be bursty at times during the day Saturday and could stick a bit in the higher terrain.

However, the best accumulations will occur Saturday night into Sunday. A couple little spokes of energy move through, one Saturday evening and another late Saturday night into Sunday morning and will likely bring relative upticks in snow. It should change to all snow fairly quickly Saturday evening and begin accumulating in the hills better around sunset, with ratios improving overnight as the DGZ lowers and surface temps drop well into the 20s. The burst in the evening will be more synoptically driven with a bit of lake enhancement/upslope with 850mb temperatures falling from around -8C to -12C by 2 AM Sunday, and could be moderate to briefly heavy in the higher terrain. By early Sunday 850mb temperatures drop to around -15C with the DGZ lowering enough for significant lake enhancement/upslope. With a well-aligned WNW flow and lake-induced instability up to 5-7k feet, lake to 850mb differentials of around -18C, good upslope, some upstream connections and synoptic moisture and lift persisting to about 9-10k feet through early Sunday it could snow quite well and also efficiently in the favored higher terrain from parts of eastern Cuyahoga County across the interior snowbelt for several hours into Sunday morning.

The synoptic moisture gradually strips away starting Sunday morning from west to east, but enough moisture persists below 850mb with sufficient instability for some LES to continue through Sunday night and early Monday, especially in NW PA where there will likely be a connection to Lake Huron. The snow may become disorganized for a time Sunday afternoon due to the diurnal influence on lake effect this time of year and probably won't be particularly heavy after that, but could accumulate a bit through early Monday where any bands set-up. 

I suspect there's a great enough window Saturday night into Sunday morning in the higher terrain of the primary NE Ohio snowbelt between when it gets cold enough to really start accumulating in the evening and when the synoptic moisture and lift start stripping away on Sunday to get up to several inches, enough for an advisory. The hills of southern Cuyahoga, northern Medina, northern Summit, as well as locations surrounding the primary snowbelt (i.e. northern Portage and Trumbull) could see a few inches too, especially if moisture doesn't strip away too quickly late Saturday night into Sunday morning. If it cools quicker Saturday evening or if the synoptic moisture lingers longer on Sunday, I could see spots getting 6-10" in the higher terrain of Geauga. I think this will be a warning criteria event with storm totals reaching over a foot in spots in the higher terrain of NW PA, especially in Erie County, as the synoptic moisture and lift will last longer into Sunday and as the Lake Huron connection may keep somewhat better snow going there while NE Ohio is down to lighter LES Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. The lakeshore across the board will see less, but Erie could get a few inches. 

We'll see how this goes, but these prolonged set-ups with some synoptic moisture and good upslope tend to do well, with the best snow likely occurring at night into Sunday morning when the sun angle influence is lower, even this time of year. 

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Ground is covered here as well, though just a few tenths so far. It’s looking like a nice burst will drop in from the NW later this morning and will give it a go to accumulate during the daylight hours at the end of March. 
 

Trend has been for temperatures to drop a bit quicker into tonight allowing good lake/upslope enhanced snow to kick in this evening into Sunday morning for a good 12 or so hour period (a bit longer in NW PA and SW NY where the deeper synoptic moisture pulls away slower) before activity tapers to lingering multi-banded LES that may linger through early Monday, especially downwind of Lake Huron into PA. The temperature profile will favor very efficient snowfall by later tonight with 850mb temps dropping to -15 to -18C, near climo mins for this late in the season, with some lingering moisture below 800mb allowing for some fluffy accumulations to continue under any organized bands through Sunday night. 
 

Given a better shot at some accumulation today and a pretty good window tonight into Sunday morning, feel the higher terrain will do quite well. Think the current headlines that were thankfully issued just before the 11th hour are fine, though northern Geauga will get awfully close to needing a warning and given how well these areas do in a lake enhanced/upslope situation with a WNW flow such as tonight, northern Medina, Summit, and Portage may get a few inches too and push advisory criteria amounts. 

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A little over 1.5” here yesterday (about 0.5” in the morning that melted, then a little over an inch in the afternoon that started melting). 3.5” last night into this morning. So at roughly 5” for the event, but roughly 3 on the ground. 

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Just now, OHweather said:

A little over 1.5” here yesterday (about 0.5” in the morning that melted, then a little over an inch in the afternoon that started melting). 3.5” last night into this morning. So at roughly 5” for the event, but roughly 3 on the ground. 

Similar here, measuring off my deck about 1.5" yesterday before noon and 4.5" after...total around 6".

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3 hours ago, NEOH said:

1..5” of snow last night. Checked out from the weather for awhile so wasn’t excepting that. 

Sure is scenic outside this morning.   Same here, I'm ready for Spring and 60s.

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Had a little over an inch here this morning when I left. Was coming down hard enough to make the roads a bit slushy along 480 and 422 in eastern Cuyahoga County around 6:30. And as is typical this late, not a trace left by midafternoon. A bit of a surprise, surface temps dropped to 32-33 pretty quickly as steady precip came in and allowed much of it to fall as snow. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Didn't really stick at home yesterday, but did immediately to my north/west and had about 1" at the office in Brooklyn Heights. Drove out to Ottawa County in the evening and there was 1-3" the entire way through Sandusky, before dropping off to the west. Most was in parts of Lorain and Erie Counties.

Just woke up to about 2" of lake effect this morning, which was a surprise...covering everything, including a lesser amount on pavement. Very scenic. 

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Ended up measuring slightly under 3" when I walked out the door at 7 AM...the burst that moved through after I left likely pushed the total a bit over 3". It was an interesting drive west along 480 to Brooklyn Heights, alternating between heavy snow and graupel, with the roads covered in many areas. They were out plowing. Some of it survived the afternoon on the ground. 

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  • 2 weeks later...
19 hours ago, WHEATCENT said:

the struggle to hit 60 around here this spring when forecasted 70 is real lmao 

Given how close you are to the lake its tough this time of the year. Looking forward to a warm-up though. Leaf out is still going slowly although we have made some progress over the last week. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

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