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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2


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2 hours ago, OHweather said:

The last slug of heavy stuff is going to exit the next couple of hours. It'll be light the rest of the night. Think probably another 2-3" left most spots (maybe 4" far eastern OH into PA, and more like 1" or less in NW OH). 

I wanted to measure what I got here in Orrville.  It’s just blown around so much.  From this afternoon until now.  It seems like we’ve picked up 5-6”.  
Also,  thanks for the replies.  Don’t comment on here much.  Always been a big fan of weather and enjoy following these events. I’m just a novice, so I apologize in advance if I ask any dumb questions. Thanks again. 

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10 minutes ago, NEOH said:

This was a tough snow to measure... I'll go with 10-12" storm total. The snow was dense and tightly compacted by the wind. Great long duration event. 

Yep same range I am coming up with.  Definitely some deep drifts out there!

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30 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Yep same range I am coming up with.  Definitely some deep drifts out there!

Looks like CLE reported 8" as of midnight with a depth of 2" :huh:. With the windy conditions this is a storm they will come in with a low measurement. 

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21 hours ago, OrrvilleWX said:

I wanted to measure what I got here in Orrville.  It’s just blown around so much.  From this afternoon until now.  It seems like we’ve picked up 5-6”.  
Also,  thanks for the replies.  Don’t comment on here much.  Always been a big fan of weather and enjoy following these events. I’m just a novice, so I apologize in advance if I ask any dumb questions. Thanks again. 

Your analysis of the radar starting to fall apart was spot on. Lighter snow lingered for a while, but the heavier stuff was on its way out. There aren't any dumb questions in this field!

12 hours ago, NEOH said:

Looks like CLE reported 8" as of midnight with a depth of 2" :huh:. With the windy conditions this is a storm they will come in with a low measurement. 

They came in with a 9.5" storm total...which I think is slightly low, but within reason. That depth in the daily climate report is the 7 AM number and they were up to 10" this morning. Blowing/drifting caused a lot of issues with measuring and caused the snow on the ground to start compacting last night. We had some public obs of 15"+ when all surrounding obs were more like 10-13"...those reports didn't get sent out, but did send out a number of LSRs from the public/social media of believable amounts near or just over a foot...on the other hand I do think some measurements came in low due to snow blowing away/compacting, anything under 8" in our area is too low. We will hopefully add up all of the 12 hourly spotter obs tomorrow and send those in a PNS. 

 

Best guess here was a little under a foot when I left this morning with about an inch additional since...so, close to a foot here. Another good synoptic storm in the books! Roads were still trashed early this morning with little traffic but still a few slide offs on 480, but quickly improved towards midday.

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3 hours ago, OHweather said:

Lake effect surprised last night…2” in Reminderville but have a couple spotter reports out east of 4”

 

2" here as well.  Must have been a few cracks in the ice.   Nice surprise.  A few depth measurements avg around 18".

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The lake effect last night was very scenic this morning. Definitely unexpected. Was in bentleyville early this morning and it was dumping snow with at 3-4” of fresh snow. Very localized. Took some measurements around the yard today… Anywhere from 16” to 22” on the ground. 

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Suspect this weekend will be sneakily snowy downwind of Lake Erie...cold front moves through early Saturday with some snow showers. Suspect that mainly light but also very fluffy lake effect flares up Saturday into Saturday evening as 850mb temperatures drop below -15C, with enough lingering synoptic moisture to help the situation. Seems like any lake effect Saturday - Saturday evening will be pretty low-topped, but temperature profiles will favor very good snow growth by the afternoon and evening. With a fairly light WNW flow, could see a few bands from Cuyahoga County into the primary Snowbelt. Feel like a general 1-3" is likely between the front and lake effect late Friday night through Saturday night, could locally be a bit more if some organized bands develop.

Sunday afternoon through early Monday would probably be a honking lake effect set-up if the lake were wide open with a very nice upper level trough moving right overhead. Even as it is, there's really good synoptic support for a time late Sunday into Sunday night with a light west-northwest flow and 850mb temperatures near -20C. Inversion heights look to rise to 8-10k feet with some synoptic moisture and perhaps some upstream connections. The light flow may favor mesolow formation over the lake and may also suggest the heaviest snow falling closer to the shoreline than normal, with temperature profiles again suggesting very fluffy snow. 

I suspect models are underdoing moisture flux and hence QPF as there's plenty of wide open water east of the islands and off of Cleveland, with the rest of the lake mainly ice covered but with plenty of cracks. The strong southerly winds through Friday will help push that ice around some more. The synoptic set-up would scream warning criteria snow Sunday afternoon through Monday morning in the Cleveland area and parts of the Snowbelt with a completely open lake. Even as it is, I suspect someone may get a surprising amount of fluffy snow out of it.

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12 hours ago, OHweather said:

Suspect this weekend will be sneakily snowy downwind of Lake Erie...cold front moves through early Saturday with some snow showers. Suspect that mainly light but also very fluffy lake effect flares up Saturday into Saturday evening as 850mb temperatures drop below -15C, with enough lingering synoptic moisture to help the situation. Seems like any lake effect Saturday - Saturday evening will be pretty low-topped, but temperature profiles will favor very good snow growth by the afternoon and evening. With a fairly light WNW flow, could see a few bands from Cuyahoga County into the primary Snowbelt. Feel like a general 1-3" is likely between the front and lake effect late Friday night through Saturday night, could locally be a bit more if some organized bands develop.

Sunday afternoon through early Monday would probably be a honking lake effect set-up if the lake were wide open with a very nice upper level trough moving right overhead. Even as it is, there's really good synoptic support for a time late Sunday into Sunday night with a light west-northwest flow and 850mb temperatures near -20C. Inversion heights look to rise to 8-10k feet with some synoptic moisture and perhaps some upstream connections. The light flow may favor mesolow formation over the lake and may also suggest the heaviest snow falling closer to the shoreline than normal, with temperature profiles again suggesting very fluffy snow. 

I suspect models are underdoing moisture flux and hence QPF as there's plenty of wide open water east of the islands and off of Cleveland, with the rest of the lake mainly ice covered but with plenty of cracks. The strong southerly winds through Friday will help push that ice around some more. The synoptic set-up would scream warning criteria snow Sunday afternoon through Monday morning in the Cleveland area and parts of the Snowbelt with a completely open lake. Even as it is, I suspect someone may get a surprising amount of fluffy snow out of it.

 

Oh c'mon... I was just getting into Spring mode. But seriously... there should be plenty of open water to work with especially after the strong winds today. I'm sure the models are underestimating that. 

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Just had a quick shower of light mixed stuff with the front earlier today...still not cold enough for a lake response yet and there was a drier wedge of air right behind the front, but it should get cold enough for minor lake effect to develop this afternoon into tonight into the primary snowbelt with a largely west flow. Think a dusting to locally 2" is possible later this afternoon through this evening, focusing on the higher terrain of the primary snowbelt.

I'm still rather intrigued by Sunday afternoon and evening...getting a few glimpses at the central basin through the clouds this morning and it's more open than the above image. Actually looks like little ice east of the islands in the central basin. With plenty of synoptic support Sunday afternoon and evening and a light W/SW flow initially turning more NW Sunday evening, expect lake effect to develop over the lake and near the central lakeshore and then push inland Sunday evening. I still think the amount of instability and synoptic support may support decent accumulations, perhaps enough to warrant an advisory or even close to warning somewhere on either side of Cuyahoga County. The RGEM and Euro are picking up on this somewhat...the NAM is getting closer. Most hi-res models still aren't properly handling temperatures over the lake though (colder than the surrounding land). My main question is where it sets up with a rather light flow, but expecting it to focus on the largest area of open water in the central basin and then push southeast Sunday evening as the flow goes more NW, before focusing back up the eastern lakeshore into Monday as the flow turns westerly. 

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19 hours ago, OHweather said:

Just had a quick shower of light mixed stuff with the front earlier today...still not cold enough for a lake response yet and there was a drier wedge of air right behind the front, but it should get cold enough for minor lake effect to develop this afternoon into tonight into the primary snowbelt with a largely west flow. Think a dusting to locally 2" is possible later this afternoon through this evening, focusing on the higher terrain of the primary snowbelt.

I'm still rather intrigued by Sunday afternoon and evening...getting a few glimpses at the central basin through the clouds this morning and it's more open than the above image. Actually looks like little ice east of the islands in the central basin. With plenty of synoptic support Sunday afternoon and evening and a light W/SW flow initially turning more NW Sunday evening, expect lake effect to develop over the lake and near the central lakeshore and then push inland Sunday evening. I still think the amount of instability and synoptic support may support decent accumulations, perhaps enough to warrant an advisory or even close to warning somewhere on either side of Cuyahoga County. The RGEM and Euro are picking up on this somewhat...the NAM is getting closer. Most hi-res models still aren't properly handling temperatures over the lake though (colder than the surrounding land). My main question is where it sets up with a rather light flow, but expecting it to focus on the largest area of open water in the central basin and then push southeast Sunday evening as the flow goes more NW, before focusing back up the eastern lakeshore into Monday as the flow turns westerly. 

Good call on the snow last night. Picked up around 2 inches. Unusual look to the radar this morning with the light flow. West side should be picking up decent snow under the heavier returns.

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Just woke up and looked outside and at the radar myself…just a dusting down here last night but it did snow. Fascinating radar and will be a fun evolution to watch today with a mesolow forming over Lorain County over the last couple hours. Convergence is setting up west and south of this feature. Best guess is this feature edges east through this afternoon and weakens a bit, but still focuses snow west and south of it. Already good moderate snow out west and instability, moisture and synoptic support improve markedly this afternoon and evening. I think parts of Lorain, Cuyahoga, Medina and Summit Counties get dumped on through tonight but also think that as far west as eastern Erie County and as far east as Lake, Geauga and Portage can get at least a chunk of accumulation too at times. I’d have at least advisories out for all of those counties outlined at the least and feel pretty good about parts of the first four I mentioned getting warning criteria amounts through tonight. 

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1 hour ago, OHweather said:

Just woke up and looked outside and at the radar myself…just a dusting down here last night but it did snow. Fascinating radar and will be a fun evolution to watch today with a mesolow forming over Lorain County over the last couple hours. Convergence is setting up west and south of this feature. Best guess is this feature edges east through this afternoon and weakens a bit, but still focuses snow west and south of it. Already good moderate snow out west and instability, moisture and synoptic support improve markedly this afternoon and evening. I think parts of Lorain, Cuyahoga, Medina and Summit Counties get dumped on through tonight but also think that as far west as eastern Erie County and as far east as Lake, Geauga and Portage can get at least a chunk of accumulation too at times. I’d have at least advisories out for all of those counties outlined at the least and feel pretty good about parts of the first four I mentioned getting warning criteria amounts through tonight. 

I can’t recall a radar representation like this. Highly unusual for sure. As you mentioned, some areas are going to see a lot of fluff today. That band in Lorain county is intense.

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A few reports of 2-4" so far out of Lorain County...likely that eastern Erie County (near the city of Huron) got a few inches too as a band dumped on them this morning and a webcam at the mouth of the Huron River looked really intense for a while. The mesolow has edged east and weakened a bit. Those of us on the east side need the feature to unravel a bit more, as it's messing with the wind fields and is keeping our flow east for the time being. The mesolow should open up within the next couple of hours and we should get a more W or WSW push of wind west of the remnant convergent zone ahead of the approaching vort max, so I think we'll see the remaining convergence push towards western Cuyahoga and Summit this afternoon though it may not get east of there, as the flow is weak and I suspect it'll maintain some tie to the large area of open water east of the islands. This remaining convergence should be a focus for more organized snow through this afternoon and evening, with a significant uptick likely this evening. I suspect the greatest additional accumulations will be in parts of Lorain, Medina, western Cuyahoga and into western Summit where another few inches seem possible under any more focused band.  

For the rest of the primary snowbelt, as the mesolow weakens winds should turn more north/northwest. While the water is icier east of Cleveland there's still some open water and a lot of cracks so there will be a flux. We should see some lake enhanced snow develop and move into the rest of the NE Ohio snowbelt later this afternoon into this evening as synoptic support peaks. It will be a fluffy snow and may briefly have some intensity this evening so it could still produce a few fluffy inches in the higher terrain in eastern Cuyahoga, southern Lake or Geauga. 

It has largely been steady flurries here this morning, we picked up a few tenths through 9 AM from last night into this morning...it's been melting/sublimating faster than it's falling the last couple of hours. 

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41 minutes ago, vpbob21 said:

Got about 3.5" here.  Nice surprise!

I feel like some of your better LES events over the years in Erie County have been surprises like this when most of the lake is frozen but a crack opens up east of the islands. Glad you got a taste of the fun this morning! 

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Have gotten about 2" here this evening, one more squall to go. Counting the dusting we got last night into this morning slightly under 2.5" for an event total. Just drove home from southwestern Cuyahoga and clipped the southern edge of a band that's sitting along and just east of I-77, is snowing good under it. 

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9 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Got another inch or so overnight, event total 3.8" (have 3.6" on the deck, but the few tenths from Saturday night partially melted yesterday afternoon). Not too bad. Very fluffy and with a calm wind snow is still sitting on the trees. 

It is definitely a picturesque snowfall... very fluffy. Over 4" IMBY. Great call on this snowfall. 

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50 minutes ago, NEOH said:

It is definitely a picturesque snowfall... very fluffy. Over 4" IMBY. Great call on this snowfall. 

We've had a couple of "Cleveland specials" the last few weeks with lake effect/enhancement causing things to really overperform. Seems like a broad 2-5" from western Lake County and most of Geauga and Portage points west to eastern Erie County. Highest reports I've seen here are 6-7" in Westlake and parts of Lorain County. Quite a bit for a "snow showers and inch or less" forecast ahead of time...saw some properly snarky comments on social media about the forecast yesterday. It was tough but it's regrettable that certain things were overlooked ahead of time. 

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Looks like the big meltdown begins tomorrow. Not sure how much, if any snow will be left after 2 days in the 50's and rain. Still quite a bit of spread with the models... won't take much a south shift for the northern counties to see snow. 

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3 hours ago, NEOH said:

Nice to walk outside this morning and feel the mild temps. Burke is at 50 while its 40 IMBY... that area really torches with a south wind. Going to a mess out there after the rain and snow melt. 

Feels amazing out!   Depth down to 6-8".   Tomorrow will be a mess.   Looks like some models trying to give us backside scraps on Fri.

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