Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

[LakeEffectOH]

1 minute ago, NEOH said:

Seems like the 12z models shifted south a bit... or maybe a quicker transfer to the EC. Still like where we sit at this point if the energy can hang back longer. 

Thinking the biggest risk is the transfer of energy to the coastal low.

[dta1984]

3 minutes ago, LakeEffectOH said:

Thinking the biggest risk is the transfer of energy to the coastal low.

Ya it seems we have had this situation in the past, it's helped us a few times by hanging on longer and also gone the opposite way.  Let's hope it hangs on longer before transferring!

[LakeEffectOH]

3 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Ya it seems we have had this situation in the past, it's helped us a few times by hanging on longer and also gone the opposite way.  Let's hope it hangs on longer before transferring!

It looks like most models are showing us keeping a deformation zone of light snow into Monday morning, so that's good.  It's the transfer that's always so unpredictable. 

[NEOH]

Here's a recap of total precip from the 12z runs... fairly uniform and with ratio's around 15:1 that's a good storm. 

GFS AI - .79

GFS - .71

CMC - .75

 

 

[LakeEffectOH]

47 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Here's a recap of total precip from the 12z runs... fairly uniform and with ratio's around 15:1 that's a good storm. 

GFS AI - .79

GFS - .71

CMC - .75

 

 

Those numbers make sense.

Snow equivalent:

GFS AI - .79/~12"

GFS - .71/~10.5"

CMC - .75/~11"