Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

[LakeEffectOH]

Haven't had near as much snow this month as points south have.  

[NEOH]

50 minutes ago, LakeEffectOH said:

Haven't had near as much snow this month as points south have.  

The few events we've had favored areas that cash in on a NW wind direction. The Bentleyville/Solon area seems to be ground zero. Payback for all the events that have a due westerly wind we miss out on 

[LakeEffectOH]

6 minutes ago, NEOH said:

The few events we've had favored areas that cash in on a NW wind direction. The Bentleyville/Solon area seems to be ground zero. Payback for all the events that have a due westerly wind we miss out on 

Yep, there's always payback!  Hopefully there won't be that much payback for all the cold we've seen for the past few weeks...

[OHweather]

I decided to give the trails at West Woods not too far from NEOH and DTA a visit yesterday afternoon. The amount of snow on the ground in that area was shocking compared to what I had in northern Summit (was down to about an inch of dense snowpack yesterday afternoon), and the gradient is really noticeable between Macedonia and even Twinsburg and Solon. Also, hiking around here is not fun right now lol, need some more snow to cover up the old/packed down ice and mud. Had a 2.1" measurement (which doubles as a storm total) around 8 AM this morning, another quick burst a little after 10 AM dropped a fluffy half inch or so. We'll see if I can get any more bonus snow from lake squalls through this evening down here. 

Looks like some lake enhanced snow Saturday into Saturday evening with a W or WNW flow as the clipper goes by, which could favor the northern half of the snowbelt. Winds go more NW into Sunday as the coldest air moves overhead which should favor the inland snowbelt yet again. The moisture is definitely best with the first phase of the event Saturday afternoon and evening. The instability increases into Sunday as brutally cold air aloft moves in (850mb temps of -20C or so), but I have some concerns about a shorter fetch by then, drier air at times, and lower snow ratios due to it becoming colder than ideal. I don't doubt that LES will continue through Sunday and into Sunday night across inland portions of the snowbelt, but you may need to get under an upstream connection to get better accumulations in that window. 

[LakeEffectOH]

Better enjoy the cold & snow now.  Looks like our chances for a white Christmas are dwindling. 

[NEOH]

55 minutes ago, OHweather said:

I decided to give the trails at West Woods not too far from NEOH and DTA a visit yesterday afternoon. The amount of snow on the ground in that area was shocking compared to what I had in northern Summit (was down to about an inch of dense snowpack yesterday afternoon), and the gradient is really noticeable between Macedonia and even Twinsburg and Solon. Also, hiking around here is not fun right now lol, need some more snow to cover up the old/packed down ice and mud. Had a 2.1" measurement (which doubles as a storm total) around 8 AM this morning, another quick burst a little after 10 AM dropped a fluffy half inch or so. We'll see if I can get any more bonus snow from lake squalls through this evening down here. 

Looks like some lake enhanced snow Saturday into Saturday evening with a W or WNW flow as the clipper goes by, which could favor the northern half of the snowbelt. Winds go more NW into Sunday as the coldest air moves overhead which should favor the inland snowbelt yet again. The moisture is definitely best with the first phase of the event Saturday afternoon and evening. The instability increases into Sunday as brutally cold air aloft moves in (850mb temps of -20C or so), but I have some concerns about a shorter fetch by then, drier air at times, and lower snow ratios due to it becoming colder than ideal. I don't doubt that LES will continue through Sunday and into Sunday night across inland portions of the snowbelt, but you may need to get under an upstream connection to get better accumulations in that window. 

The local snow gradient is quite noticeable over short distances. The corridor from Rt.87 south to 422 seems to have the most amount of snow on the ground. Thankfully I'm sandwiched right between that area 

[NEOH]

Looking forward to a snowy weekend. We've had a great start to Winter... best I can remember in quite some time. Going to enjoy the deep snow pack this weekend before the warm up next week. 

 

[OHweather]

For verification purposes later, here was the snow map that fell out of my forecast this afternoon. If I were to say there are two areas I'm most concerned about, it's potential for a locally higher amount in the secondary snowbelt or western Cleveland metro area (i.e. western Cuyahoga or Lorain, Medina, Summit, Portage or Trumbull) if banding settles into those areas Saturday night or Sunday...and also potential for the eastern lakeshore to again come in lower than forecast if banding doesn't settle over that area late Saturday afternoon/evening. 

[OHweather]

The 12z RGEM would be pretty interesting for the western lakeshore and secondary snowbelt at times overnight tonight through Sunday! It also looks plenty snowy for the inland core snowbelt.

[dta1984]

Estimating 4-5" out there since yesterday.   Not much on radar now, but hopefully we get some bands to form in the NW flow.  

[NEOH]

44 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Estimating 4-5" out there since yesterday.   Not much on radar now, but hopefully we get some bands to form in the NW flow.  

Same measurements here. Should see an uptick in the snow this morning. Shorter fetch and dry arctic are not the best combo for heavy snow. 

[OHweather]

A little over 4" here so far (a bit over 2.5" from the clipper, about 1.5" from LES). Should see stuff fill in towards midday, good chunk of dry air moving overhead this morning. 

[dta1984]

5.75" total so far.  It's brutal out there!

[vpbob21]

Got about .9" here.  Seasonal snow just under 8".

 

[OHweather]

5.8" total here from the clipper + LES. The cold has done a number on western Lake Erie!

[NEOH]

1 hour ago, OHweather said:

5.8" total here from the clipper + LES. The cold has done a number on western Lake Erie!

Wow. That has to be near record early for that much ice on 12/15. We have an excellent snowpack out there... too bad it turns warm later this week. 

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, NEOH said:

Wow. That has be near record early for that much ice on 12/15. We have an excellent snowpack out there... too bad it turns warm later this week. 

[NEOH]

Read this over the weekend... 

Consistent snow cover through the first 12 days of December has happened only four other times since 1938.

Cleveland hasn’t seen bare ground since Thanksgiving, with snow remaining on the ground through every day of December so far — an early-season stretch that has happened only a handful of times in the city’s recorded history.

Climate records from Cleveland Hopkins International Airport since 1938 show that Cleveland has had consistent snow cover from Dec. 1 through Dec. 12 in only four other years: 1958, 1974, 1976 and 2002.

Snow-on-the-ground measurements come from a single site at Cleveland Hopkins Airport, where trace readings can occur even when substantial snow remains on the ground elsewhere in the region.

The four Decembers that began with snow on the ground for all 12 of the month’s opening days did not all unfold the same way.

In 1958, snow remained on the ground for nearly the entire month, finishing with 24 days of snow cover.

In 1974, 1976 and 2002, snow lingered well into mid-December before warmer stretches briefly erased it, preventing those months from rivaling the most snow-dominant Decembers overall.

In other words, an early lock-in doesn’t guarantee a snow-covered Christmas — but it does tilt December toward a more wintry-than-usual outcome.

Historically, the most snow-dominant Decembers — measured by days with snow on the ground — include 1963 and 2010, when snow cover lasted 25 days, and 1958, 1989 and 2000, each with 24 days.

But for those who feel like winter arrived early this year and never really loosened its grip, the data supports that impression — and shows just how rarely December begins this way.

[OHweather]

4 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Read this over the weekend... 

Consistent snow cover through the first 12 days of December has happened only four other times since 1938.

Cleveland hasn’t seen bare ground since Thanksgiving, with snow remaining on the ground through every day of December so far — an early-season stretch that has happened only a handful of times in the city’s recorded history.

Climate records from Cleveland Hopkins International Airport since 1938 show that Cleveland has had consistent snow cover from Dec. 1 through Dec. 12 in only four other years: 1958, 1974, 1976 and 2002.

Snow-on-the-ground measurements come from a single site at Cleveland Hopkins Airport, where trace readings can occur even when substantial snow remains on the ground elsewhere in the region.

The four Decembers that began with snow on the ground for all 12 of the month’s opening days did not all unfold the same way.

In 1958, snow remained on the ground for nearly the entire month, finishing with 24 days of snow cover.

In 1974, 1976 and 2002, snow lingered well into mid-December before warmer stretches briefly erased it, preventing those months from rivaling the most snow-dominant Decembers overall.

In other words, an early lock-in doesn’t guarantee a snow-covered Christmas — but it does tilt December toward a more wintry-than-usual outcome.

Historically, the most snow-dominant Decembers — measured by days with snow on the ground — include 1963 and 2010, when snow cover lasted 25 days, and 1958, 1989 and 2000, each with 24 days.

But for those who feel like winter arrived early this year and never really loosened its grip, the data supports that impression — and shows just how rarely December begins this way.

Interesting stats! Obviously it has felt like the coldest start to winter in a number of years, but it's impressive that this prolonged snow cover is so rare for this early in the season. 2010-11 was quite a winter...