NEOH Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 4 hours ago, HO1088 said: The 12Z ECMWF on Windy.com shows 6" for the eastern suburbs of Cleveland! Very tricky forecast. CLE seems sold on freezing rain/mixing. But just about every model has several inches or more on the east side of CLE. WAA seems to always ways to win around here but it’s hard to disregard models. Currently 26/20 imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Precip has started as a mix. Mostly ice pellets at this point. Wonder if we can flip to snow as the column cools or if it will remain a mix throughout. Already a light glaze out there so it could get ugly with the heavier precip moving in. 28/20 imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 10 minutes ago, NEOH said: Precip has started as a mix. Mostly ice pellets at this point. Wonder if we can flip to snow as the column cools or if it will remain a mix throughout. Already a light glaze out there so it could get ugly with the heavier precip moving in. 28/20 imby. Yep same here, ice pellets started around 7. Hoping we can flip to snow. Models seemed to still look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Freezing rain and poorly formed sleet in Chagrin since it started. 30/24 at 8 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 54 minutes ago, dta1984 said: Yep same here, ice pellets started around 7. Hoping we can flip to snow. Models seemed to still look good. The models do look good. Maybe they are not handling the mix precip well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 32 and ice in Chardon, parking lots definitely slick. Had a few flakes mixing in earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 1 hour ago, dta1984 said: 32 and ice in Chardon, parking lots definitely slick. Had a few flakes mixing in earlier. Just raining in Chagrin at 33/30. Definitely slick out there. The WTOD will never be denied around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, NEOH said: Just raining in Chagrin at 33/30. Definitely slick out there. The WTOD will never be denied around here. Seeing some snow reports around Columbus and out west.... definitely encouraging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 1 hour ago, dta1984 said: Seeing some snow reports around Columbus and out west.... definitely encouraging I'd imagine we'll flip back to snow in an hour or two. Just looked outside and the ice is accumulating on the elevated surfaces. Temp is back down to 32/30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Just glancing outside, maybe 1" of snow. Definitely seems the models were having trouble with the sleet and freezing rain that fell today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Just got home from being out of town for the weekend and have 1.5" new snow on the deck. All rain and grass until 422 , 271 areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 14 hours ago, dta1984 said: Just got home from being out of town for the weekend and have 1.5" new snow on the deck. All rain and grass until 422 , 271 areas. It was snowing pretty hard late yesterday afternoon... huge flakes. With temps hovering near freezing it didn't accumulate that well. This cold stretch hasn't produced much snow (at least locally) unfortunately. Would have rather stayed mild to keep some warmth in the lake for later in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Another snowy morning. Might pick up another inch or so today it looks like. I'll have to look back, but this is looking to be one of the snowier November's in at least a few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Agreed. I cannot ever remember a November like this with constant snow throughout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 54 minutes ago, dta1984 said: Another snowy morning. Might pick up another inch or so today it looks like. I'll have to look back, but this is looking to be one of the snowier November's in at least a few years. A pretty decent batch of snow is moving in off the lake. Might be a bit of an over performer if that sits around for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 1.75" new snow on the deck when I got home. November total a bit over 6" so far. The most since winter of 14-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 -6 F on average at CLE this month with almost no sun to speak of, yet not one major lake effect event. Bizarre pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 31 minutes ago, HO1088 said: -6 F on average at CLE this month with almost no sun to speak of, yet not one major lake effect event. Bizarre pattern. Ya, it's certainly been a nickel and dime snowfall month. Next week looks to have some prospects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 3 hours ago, HO1088 said: -6 F on average at CLE this month with almost no sun to speak of, yet not one major lake effect event. Bizarre pattern. Exactly. That’s a lot of cold with not much to show for it besides a cold lake. Our les window is short in this area since we rely on the western basin for fetch. Not a great scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 With the low that gives us rain on Monday forecast to stall over Maine and the Canadian Maritmes for a few days (unlike the previous pattern of lows moving more progressively east), it looks like we may be able to keep more boundary layer humidity and thus maybe have a good shot of lake effect snow (I hope)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 21 minutes ago, HO1088 said: With the low that gives us rain on Monday forecast to stall over Maine and the Canadian Maritmes for a few days (unlike the previous pattern of lows moving more progressively east), it looks like we may be able to keep more boundary layer humidity and thus maybe have a good shot of lake effect snow (I hope)? Not sure. It looks like the elongated low to the northeast will keep the winds due westerly. Models have been trending more favorably though. Just want to avoid a scenario where a trough sits to the north and we wait until it moves south turning winds to NW... right as high pressure build in. We’ve seen that happen more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 The ECMWF models the trough over the South shore of Lake Erie Tuesday night. Temps are cold enough, the wind over the lake is the right direction and there is a lot of convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Models trends have been pretty good. Looks like winds will come around from a wnw direction... good news for those south of 322. Still might be a close call but looks better than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Cuyahoga County Airport now has an AWOS. 216-289-4113 It is scheduled to start transmitting officially in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Looks like two shots for some snow the next few days...first Monday night into Tuesday morning with some initial wrap-around and lake enhancement...my impression is it's 2-4" in the higher terrain of Geauga and 3-6" for the higher terrain of Erie PA and SW NY through Tuesday afternoon...it's an ok but not outstanding setup, synoptic moisture decent but winds rather westerly and instability limited. So there should be accumulating snow in the usual spots, maybe pushing advisory criteria for some, most likely in parts of Erie County and the Chautauqua Ridge. The next period is Tuesday night and Wednesday when the models drop another vort max and good moisture through. The Euro is more of a clip job for NE OH while the NAM would be very good back into NE OH. With a WNW wind, colder temps, and longer duration, that's the window that could produce a substantial accumulations perhaps worthy of a warning...highest confidence again in the higher elevations of NW PA/SW NY, though if the NAM is right (and it's only a small shift west for the Euro) that could get as far west as the higher terrain of Medina County. A prolonged lake enhanced event with decent ratios, upslope and broad shoreline convergence with a WNW wind, and good moisture and instability would do quite well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Nam and short range models looking good. Cle snow maps show 12-18 in most of the snowbelt and eastern Cuyahoga. https://www.weather.gov/cle/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 2 hours ago, dta1984 said: Nam and short range models looking good. Cle snow maps show 12-18 in most of the snowbelt and eastern Cuyahoga. https://www.weather.gov/cle/winter I'm trying to curb my enthusiasm but everything seems to be coming together for a significant LES event. Hopefully the vort max OHWeather mentioned is a little further west than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 This is my fourth year in Lorain County and the cutoff between here and places just to the east in terms of LES accumulations still amazes me. We're forecasted for a run-of-the-mill 2-5" between today and Wednesday, while Cleveland (just 30 miles to the east) is slated for 10-18"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 4 minutes ago, featherwx said: This is my fourth year in Lorain County and the cutoff between here and places just to the east in terms of LES accumulations still amazes me. We're forecasted for a run-of-the-mill 2-5" between today and Wednesday, while Cleveland (just 30 miles to the east) is slated for 10-18"! Oh, we still get tortured in the snowbelt... just from a closer range. Areas just north of here can get 2+ feet while we get a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 4 hours ago, NEOH said: I'm trying to curb my enthusiasm but everything seems to be coming together for a significant LES event. Hopefully the vort max OHWeather mentioned is a little further west than modeled. Ya, so am I. Short range models continue to look good from about chagrin then north east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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