blizzardof96 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Looks like the 12z Euro bumped up precip a bit... now showing ~0.4" for the GTA. In line with the NAM/GFS and RGEM on a 3-4" event in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 No issues with temperatures here in the GTA, at least between 401 and Bloor. Solidly below freezing, very dry flakes falling and accumulating no problem. Biggest issue right now is the precip is drying up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Yeah that document makes it seem like that 77 inches in 24 hours to be untrue, but not positive. Yeah, definitely looks like a fun time next week for Lake effect. Bands should be meandering all over for most of the week. I'm not sure what I received in lake effect last season, but most of the time 60% of our yearly snowfall is from lake effect. Had 162 inches total last year at my location, 130 at the Buffalo Airport. Here is my YouTube channel if you want to see my Lake effect chases from last year. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3LutXF6kA73itxjVZ9h7-w Amazing videos man. Stay safe and warm, haha! Wow thats crazy! 162 inches in one season, damn? i can only imagine that. I recall Quebec city got a record breaking 220 inches of snow back in 07-08 and all of that came from consistent storminess. Lets hope this Winter is good for all of us. Nothing beats a classic widespread Winter storm, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Looks like the 12z Euro bumped up precip a bit... now showing ~0.4" for the GTA. In line with the NAM/GFS and RGEM on a 3-4" event in the city. Interesting to say the least. I rather prefer analyzing short range models now like the NAM, RUC, HRRR and RGEM, but seeing great consensus among models is astounding. The radar is starting to look great as the storm begins to organize itself. My initial call is for 5-7cm north of the 401 and 1-4cm south of the 401. Whats your thoughts? Stay safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 I'd say a uniform 2-3" for the GTA. I don't see a large north-to-south gradient because where areas along the lake may struggle with higher temperatures, areas north of the 401 will have less precip unless a classic deformation line forms along the 401.. but since the system is not very intense, I don't see the signature line forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 RGEM is going to nail this event. It has been perfect with how today has gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Perfect weather for the Guelph Santa Claus Parade. Just cold enough for snow and mood flakes when they're needed most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 717 WOCN11 CWTO 161651 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 11:51 AM EST SUNDAY 16 NOVEMBER 2014. --------------------------------------------------------------------- SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR: =NEW= SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK =NEW= DUNNVILLE - CALEDONIA - HALDIMAND =NEW= NIAGARA =NEW= BROCKVILLE - LEEDS AND GRENVILLE =NEW= CITY OF OTTAWA =NEW= GATINEAU =NEW= PRESCOTT AND RUSSELL =NEW= CORNWALL - MORRISBURG =NEW= SMITHS FALLS - LANARK - SHARBOT LAKE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS 5 TO 10 CM POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF ONTARIO ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. AT THIS POINT, IT APPEARS THAT AREAS NEAR THE EASTERN LAKE ERIE SHORE, AND AREAS NORTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER WILL LIKELY RECEIVE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS. CURRENT INDICATION SUGGEST THAT SNOW WILL BEGIN OVER REGIONS NORTH OF LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING, THEN MOVE EASTWARD TO EASTERN ONTARIO MONDAY MORNING, AND SPREAD TO THE AREAS NORTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 10 CM. SNOW ACCUMULATION COULD BE LESS ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER AS IT MAY BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS AS WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED. PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT WWW.WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA END Environment Canada going with only south and east regions in the 5-10cm range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Environment Canada going with only south and east regions in the 5-10cm range. Only typical of them smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Latest RUC has 3-6" for areas north of the 401 and 2-3" near the Lake. In the radar loop you can see some deformation bands trying to form which aide in the total accumulations its spitting out. Should be a fun night, haha! Edit: The latest RAP is more reasonable and shows 2-3" for the GTA, closer to 3-4" in Hamilton and 5- 6" around the Niagara region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 I would be flabbergasted if areas near the 407 saw more than 5".. I really don't see anyone in the GTA surpassing 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 I'm going with 2" IMBY. Great start to the winter season! Great to see all of you guys again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 I would be flabbergasted if areas near the 407 saw more than 5".. I really don't see anyone in the GTA surpassing 4" Agree... amounts should stay in the 2-4" range in the GTA with perhaps 5" locally. There is pretty good consensus right now from the EC/RGEM/NAM etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Latest HRRR shows 2-3" with a burst of >3" near the lake. However, it cut down on amounts in the Niagara region. Interestingly enough the latest RUC still being consistent on its amounts. I don't think anybody in the GTA is gonna see more than 3 or 4", maybe localized, but thats about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Latest RAP has 2-4" for the GTA. Looks like we get two waves of snowfall in the area. First one now and the second one tomorrow morning. Stay save everyone! I got class tomorrow morning, gonna be tough going to downtown tomorrow from Vaughan, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 2z HRRR total run snowfall for you southern Ontario folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 2z HRRR total run snowfall for you southern Ontario folks. 11:17 2z HRRR Toronto.png Gotta love that tiny 4" bullseye right over downtown Toronto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Interestingly enough the latest RUC still being consistent on its amounts. I don't think anybody in the GTA is gonna see more than 3 or 4", maybe localized, but thats about it. Do people even use the RUC anymore? Decommissioned I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Gotta love that tiny 4" bullseye right over downtown Toronto lol yeah, it's a nice touch by the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Measured 5.2cm here in my area. About to head out now, traffic is gonna be crazy with all the delays everywhere. Stay safe everyone! YYZ recorded 1.8cm yesterday, now up to 4cm for the month and 5.4cm for the season. Amazing start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 2.5 cm near Yorkdale right now and light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Anywhere from 2" to a trace depending on the surface... but man is it a beautiful scene. We should be in for another 1-2" once the CCB widens a bit between 15-19z. Snow continues to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 2.5 cm near Yorkdale right now and light rain. Island's reporting -RA, but it's surprising that it's as far north as Yorkdale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Island's reporting -RA, but it's surprising that it's as far north as Yorkdale. Switched to flurries now up here. Will be making a pitstop near YorkU later in the day and will report obs there. My place near Yonge-Eglinton was spitting rain earlier this morning as well. Had about 1.5 cm there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 A little over 1.5" here. Still coming down, looks like we might make a run for 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 2.8 cm at York. Virtually was the same at Lawrence south of yorkdale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 4.5cm down so far, SN coming down at a nice clip. That amount brings my november snow total to 9.1cm. Already above the Nov average with more snow to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 4.5cm down so far, SN coming down at a nice clip. That amount brings my november snow total to 9.1cm. Already above the Nov average with more snow to come. There was like 2cm in downtown at UFOT this morning haha. At the moment, Its mixing in with rain at times and melting on contact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 There was like 2cm in downtown at UFOT this morning haha. At the moment, Its mixing in with rain at times and melting on contact. Most of the accumulation is on grass/non paved surfaces although the side street are becoming increasingly slick. Lets see what happens over the next few hours. Wouldn't surprise me if rates increase quite a bit towards 17z-19z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Most of the accumulation is on grass/non paved surfaces although the side street are becoming increasingly slick. Lets see what happens over the next few hours. Wouldn't surprise me if rates increase quite a bit towards 17z-19z. Yeah roads are slick everywhere. This storm caught alot of people off guard. How much has YYZ recorded? I'm at UFOT all day, so I'll be watching to see if it turns to all snow later on. Seeing some decent radar returns atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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