blizzardof96 Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Just went through and revised some of my analog years yesterday, coming up with 51-52,69-70,02-03,03-04,93-94 and 12-13 in the set. Mostly focused on monthly SSN/QBO/MEI numbers with some focus on PDO,AMO,ONI lead up, ENSO configuration, Walker Cell etc. These years appear to hint at a cool and very nino like start to winter with a more nina like finish as the el nino weakens and -EPO forcing takes over. This would more then likely cause the storm track to shift into a more favourable position for our region with the presence of a weak SE ridge. Based on my analogs/research Jan-Mar should be the month's to watch for average to above average snowfall which actually contradicts the modelling(NMME/Euro) which have a wetter/stormier dec and more suppressed storm track from Jan-March. Dec has that RNA,+WPO,+EPO and neutral NAO/AO look: Jan(-EPO,-WPO,-AO/-NAO): Feb(-NAO/AO,-EPO,+WPO,+PNA) March(+PNA,-WPO,Neutral EPO,-NAO/AO) Oh and maybe we can pull off a snowy november finally... very exciting times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Thats amazing. This summer in general wasn't too bad. In my opinion it was quite boring considering we didn't have much severe weather to track. I haven't done much research into this Winter yet, but i will be doing so in the coming week or two. Whats your preliminary thoughts? I think the Arctic Sea ice behaviour plays a role in the AO/NAO situation. I dont know if there's any peer reviewed papers on that but its an interesting anomaly to consider. This year we saw a similar Arctic sea ice minimum as last year. A far cry from the years that preceded it, where we saw a bad pattern setting up from 2007-2012. Hopefully those bad years weren't the start of a new trend and we see a recovery in sea ice anomalies. Anyways, i'm getting off topic, haha. This summer wasn't too bad? It was the worst summer I've ever lived through! Hell, even 2009 and 2003 (didn't think I'd go there, 2003 sucked!) looked pretty nice compared to the rotting turd that is the summer of 2014, and that's unfair to rotting turds. You are right about it being boring, I could have not checked the forecast or anything once and I would have missed pretty much nothing other than what occurred in early June. Maybe I would have missed the TWN forecast showing one of the mid-July nights going down to 6ºC feeling like 4C . Severe thunderstorms? Didn't see anything remotely close to one but had some good storms, nothing too memorable. Even though ON has had a large number of tornadoes (19), 97% of them were unexpected, quick spin-ups that don't mean much. EC didn't warn for most of them anyways. Its gotten to the state where my interest in meteorology slid down a mountain just like in the early part of last decade. Since we're in this cold pattern, that's not surprising because I'm a warm pattern junkie. In my view what goes on outside of winter in the same pattern isn't worth this, not even close. I still love the memories of the intense winter weather, they are great and exciting but in the big picture this whole deal is rotten to the core. Just this week I realized I can throw in pretty much the whole year as being horrible for both weather and personal reasons. Used to be around 220cm...based on the new 1981-2010 numbers I think it's more like 190ish. Definitely not the snowiest of the snowy in the Lake Belts but certainly snowier than anywhere I've lived so far (Toronto, Edmonton). I'm in the snow belt and I don't often think about London but they are in the belt nonetheless. A short drive from London can give you a view of insane things far beyond your past experiences with snow, like with December 2010 when 180 cm of snow fell in Lucan ON within 2-3 days. Oh and maybe we can pull of a snowy november finally... very exciting times ahead. Yeah, we haven't had a snowy November in our belt since 2000 (2005 had a moderate to above average amount here though). Good info so far about the winter . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 I'm in the snow belt and I don't often think about London but they are in the belt nonetheless. A short drive from London can give you a view of insane things far beyond your past experiences with snow, like with December 2010 when 180 cm of snow fell in Lucan ON within 2-3 days. He may not have to drive anywhere to see stuff he hasn't seen before.......... 21" overnight in my backyard Nov last year and 100 cms overnight in Dec 1978. Not saying it will happen this year but it has happened before and will again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 He may not have to drive anywhere to see stuff he hasn't seen before.......... 21" overnight in my backyard Nov last year and 100 cms overnight in Dec 1978. Not saying it will happen this year but it has happened before and will again. True, I was thinking far beyond because huge events are more common to the west and a bit north of London. A good chunk of them are even more impressive than what I get here so if I was in London, I'd be snow-chasing that junk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 16, 2014 Author Share Posted October 16, 2014 Pea soup outside. Can barely see the trees 50 feet away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 NWS released their winter outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 17, 2014 Author Share Posted October 17, 2014 NWS released their winter outlook. Looks very Nino-ish although those forecasts are usually inaccurate. Nothing against the NWS. It's just the skill in LRF is not very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 17, 2014 Author Share Posted October 17, 2014 Apparently some local flooding in Toronto from that slow moving TSRA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Apparently some local flooding in Toronto from that slow moving TSRA. Yup, best thunderstorm of 2014 for downtown T.O. on October 16th between 7:00 pm - 8:30 pm. Tons of lightening and heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Apparently some local flooding in Toronto from that slow moving TSRA. EC late to the party as usual. They are warning that 40mm is possible when already 50mm has fallen here with RN continuing. Basement flooded a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 17, 2014 Author Share Posted October 17, 2014 EC late to the party as usual. They are warning that 40mm is possible when already 50mm has fallen here with RN continuing. Basement flooded a little bit. Yup, no surprise there. Although these convective cells are hard to predict. I guess they thought it'd dissipate before warning criteria amounts would be realized. Pearson has been completely fringed by this storm. Wouldn't be surprised if "officially" Toronto only ends up with a mm or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Yup, no surprise there. Although these convective cells are hard to predict. I guess they thought it'd dissipate before warning criteria amounts would be realized. Pearson has been completely fringed by this storm. Wouldn't be surprised if "officially" Toronto only ends up with a mm or two. It recorded 5.2mm surprisingly haha. Quite the storm last night indeed. My rain gauge recorded a whopping 58mm in less than an hour. On top of that, my basement nearly flooded too. Alot of road closures due to local flooding last night. Thus far were running way above normal in terms of temperatures for October. Sometimes a cold October can have a negative effect on our Winter as you stated earlier. Lets see how the rest of this month progresses as we head into November. Early signs show for another period of above normal temperatures as we close out the month and begin November. Hope you enjoy that LES out there in London this winter, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Great to be back. Looking forward to another fun and exciting winter in the GTA. This past summer was perfect. Comfortable temperatures and low humidity for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 GFS/Euro in surprising agreement on the D8 trough. Things could get interesting if the trough amplifies as shown. 12z EC 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 As blizzard posted above, the potential exists for the first flakes of the season to be flying around on Halloween. Timing and vort placement are crucial for the right set-up, but favouring climatology, i doubt there will be any accumulations. At the most, I expect a cm or two, and that too in localized areas away from the city. Once the front passes we should see a brief cool down to well below normal temperature anomalies for the weekend, before we see a warming trend as a ridge begins building in. Early indications point towards a warm first half of November, but I do expect the AO to go more negative around Nov 15-20th leading towards a more cooler second half, similar to last year. Regarding the build-up of snow in Eurasia, thus far its looking fantastic. A few years that resemble this year may ring a bell to some and they include; 2013, 1970, 1976 and 2002. All 4 years had Winters that featured extreme cold and variable snowstorms (esp 2013-14 and 1970-71 over the other two). Sadly enough, snow maps have been down at the NSIDC, so hopefully they can be up and running sooner than later. In addition, we have quite the Sunspot activity going on at the moment. The AP index and Sunspots will be a key element for this Winter as blizz noted earlier. Higher sunspot activity could translate to more CME Waves bombarding the Earth and thus having an impact on the Stratosphere and QBO. Not sure how closely its linked together, but their are some peer reviewed papers out based on that. Going back to my first paragraph, the latest NAM has a similar set-up compared to the 18z GFS when analyzing the 500mb Vort maps. To be in our favour, we need the Vort to dig a bit further south and get more amplified as it heads East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The 18z NAM looks euro/euro ens like. Seems feasible that we do see at least some flakes in the GTA late friday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 1, 2014 Author Share Posted November 1, 2014 Kinda looks like a meso-low over western Lake Ontario spinning some +RA bands onshore. Too bad this wasn't a couple of weeks later. Could have been real fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Kinda looks like a meso-low over western Lake Ontario spinning some +RA bands onshore. Too bad this wasn't a couple of weeks later. Could have been real fun. The HRRR is making things real interesting later tonight. Maybe it scores a coup... 03z 09z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 1, 2014 Author Share Posted November 1, 2014 The HRRR is making things real interesting later tonight. Maybe it scores a coup... 03z hrrr_ref_toronto_5.png 09z hrrr_ref_toronto_11.png Pearson's temp has been slowly declining the last 2 hours. Based on King City radar, looks like the snow line is south of Barrie. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Pearson's temp has been slowly declining the last 2 hours. Based on King City radar, looks like the snow line is south of Barrie. We shall see. Oddly enough, 925's actually managed to warm a tad between 22-1z b/c winds veered a little more bringing that lake air into the city. This should reverse between now and 4z as winds back to the NNE, which is exactly what the updated 0z HRRR is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Hearing reports of SN as far south as Aurora. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Oddly enough, 925's actually managed to warm a tad between 22-1z b/c winds veered a little more bringing that lake air into the city. This should reverse between now and 4z as winds back to the NNE, which is exactly what the updated 0z HRRR is showing. I doubt it will stick to more than trace amounts in the GTA. Best areas to get maybe a cm in the GTA look to be Vaughan/Markham and further north. However, if what the HRRR is depicting comes to fruition, it'll be quite the surprise for many tomorrow morning. Temperatures crashing through the day tomorrow. Could be Toronto's first sub-freezing temperature of the season. Unfortunately, we end October without a sub freezing overnight low temperature being recorded at YYZ. And btw I just recently had a chance to view your revised Winter outlook and I agree on every point presented. Well documented outlook. This Winter could be fun and games if the pieces come together. High Latitude blocking can favour us depending on its strength. A repeat of 09-10 would be horrendous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 1, 2014 Author Share Posted November 1, 2014 Buttonville reporting -RASN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Buttonville reporting -RASN I can confirm. Snow mixing in with rain in my area as well. Temperature on my thermometer down to 1.9C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I can confirm. Snow mixing in with rain in my area as well. Temperature on my thermometer down to 1.9C. I can confirm that here as well. -RASN. EDIT: Appears to be going over to mostly snow now at a bit of a heavier clip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I can confirm that here as well. -RASN. EDIT: Appears to be going over to mostly snow now at a bit of a heavier clip. Yeah same here. Rain is slowly starting to diminish. Alot of wet snow flakes flying around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 1, 2014 Author Share Posted November 1, 2014 I can confirm that here as well. -RASN. EDIT: Appears to be going over to mostly snow now at a bit of a heavier clip. Bathurst and 401 right? RA/SN line has been dropping south fast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Bathurst and 401 right? RA/SN line has been dropping south fast! Ya exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Light to moderate snow falling in my area atm. Some snowfall is sticking onto my car, however; its melting on contact elsewhere. YYZ reporting -RASN with a temperature of 1.9C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Update to post above; YYZ now reporting -SN with a temperature of 1.5C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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