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Capt. Adam

First Week of March Nor'Easter

777 posts in this topic

Just a word of caution: I sat through three days of snow with 2 m temps at 33 F this week.  ~1.50" of liquid translated into 2" of snow in 3 days.  Beware the March sun angle.

 

That is all.

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Oh yes and I'll be home for this event, so given that fact you might as well just write it off now...

Maybe that will counteract the fact that my birthday is this week and there's no way I can make it back there (which means Ma Nature would be more inclined to torture me by having a big storm back home around my birthday). :lol::axe::gun_bandana:

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Assuming tonight's modeling is right (either camp) going to be a bigger issue at the Shore in terms of coastal flooding/wind/beach erosion than from any precip.

 

Even if it nudged north a bit, the precip shield would need to move north a good 75 miles to get in the heavier precip zone on the Euro.

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I was surprised to see some of the language used over at Accuweather concerning the storm potential next week. A few quotes from an article written this morning by Alex Sosnowski:

 

“A wintry system that will make a cross-country tour beginning this weekend has the potential to develop into a powerful, damaging and very disruptive storm along the East Coast next week.” He also stated “Once the storm reaches the Atlantic coast Wednesday into Thursday (March 6-7), conditions at most levels in the nearby atmosphere and well away from the storm throughout North America will favor explosive development. At this point, the storm could become a real monster. While being too cold and stopping shy of becoming a tropical system, it could pack the punch like one with serious impacts to lives, property and travel plans.

According to Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams, "There may be similarities to a storm which affected much of the same area around March 6, 1962."

 

Seems like a pretty daring statement five days out. Any thoughts from our mets.

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I was surprised to see some of the language used over at Accuweather concerning the storm potential next week. A few quotes from an article written this morning by Alex Sosnowski:
 
“A wintry system that will make a cross-country tour beginning this weekend has the potential to develop into a powerful, damaging and very disruptive storm along the East Coast next week.” He also stated “Once the storm reaches the Atlantic coast Wednesday into Thursday (March 6-7), conditions at most levels in the nearby atmosphere and well away from the storm throughout North America will favor explosive development. At this point, the storm could become a real monster. While being too cold and stopping shy of becoming a tropical system, it could pack the punch like one with serious impacts to lives, property and travel plans.
According to Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams, "There may be similarities to a storm which affected much of the same area around March 6, 1962."
 
Seems like a pretty daring statement five days out. Any thoughts from our mets.

 

 

 

 

i respect elliot abrams and usually he does not call for snow unless he's pretty darn certain that it's going to happen......but i usually hear him on kyw1060....not sure if he has to "market" this storm over the website..........fyi.....here is the link to 1962

 

 

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ash_Wednesday_Storm_of_1962

 

 

http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/features/f6/years-later-are-we-prepared-for-the-inevitable-next-time/article_4bf4d660-6400-11e1-8284-001871e3ce6c.html

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i respect elliot abrams and usually he does not call for snow unless he's pretty darn certain that it's going to happen......but i usually hear him on kyw1060....not sure if he has to "market" this storm over the website..........fyi.....here is the link to 1962

 

 

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ash_Wednesday_Storm_of_1962

Here are some totals from that storm:

 

ABE:  0.48" liquid, 3.3" snow

RDG:  0.74" liquid, 4.0" snow

TTN:  0.93" liquid, 3.7" snow

PHL:  0.74" liquid, 6.8" snow

ILG:  0.77" liquid, 4.3" snow

ACY:  2.22" liquid, 3.6" snow

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It's coming north on the GFS. The Southeast ridge seems to be more defined and further west, forcing it to go up over the top of it.

that plays a little role in it, but the main issue is the confluence is still to far south and won't allow it to gain latitude. Need that confluence to shift futher east and allow that ULL to traverse further north. 

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i respect elliot abrams and usually he does not call for snow unless he's pretty darn certain that it's going to happen......but i usually hear him on kyw1060....not sure if he has to "market" this storm over the website..........fyi.....here is the link to 1962

 

 

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ash_Wednesday_Storm_of_1962

 

 

http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/features/f6/years-later-are-we-prepared-for-the-inevitable-next-time/article_4bf4d660-6400-11e1-8284-001871e3ce6c.html

Even today you can see the streets laid out for the planned development on Assateague Island.   This storm

levelled everything standing and forced cancellation of the development.

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Damn. Still can't get it up here on the GFS.

 

 

 

this is one of those times where you wish/hope that some sort of "SE bias" on the GFS actually exists           

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GFS shifted a little north continuing trend of last couple of runs. Getting close to last nights Euro.

The 12Z GFS surface low track is almost identical to the 0Z EC... at least where it counts.  EC stalls it where the GFS doesn't but for this region it doesn't matter (except from a coastal standpoint).

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GEM back north again. Hard to buy into that Chicago gets heavy precip and the storm tracks to our south. Don't think I've ever seen that. 

 

A little slower which allows convergence to relax and storm to expand to NE. 

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Hard to buy into that Chicago gets heavy precip and the storm tracks to our south. Don't think I've ever seen that. 

Its definitely happened, depending on your definition of "heavy precip".  March 9-10 1999 comes to mind.

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The GEFS are substantially further north than the operational and it isn't just a fluke couple of members. They would become more concerning for our shore areas, most notably.

There is a fine line here between the north trend and the blocking 50-50/Quebec High. This likely puts someone in our region on the fringe and the fringe does NOT work for getting good snow accumulation.

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HM, I saw you post in another thread that you were happy the models lost that northern lobe over the lakes that the GFS was phasing yesterday. While its true without it forecasting becomes easier, but I am surprised you werent rooting that on because with that the storm could have been something special ya know. 

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The GEFS are substantially further north than the operational and it isn't just a fluke couple of members. They would become more concerning for our shore areas, most notably.

There is a fine line here between the north trend and the blocking 50-50/Quebec High. This likely puts someone in our region on the fringe and the fringe does NOT work for getting good snow accumulation.

 

Yep, just because models give our area .1-.4 we would need to be in the heavy stuff to get it to accumulate, and right now with no phasing this looks unlikely. Well, winter has been a fun ride. I'm happy I took the trip to NE cause my eyes would have been shutout if I hadn't lol. 

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Here are some totals from that storm:

 

ABE:  0.48" liquid, 3.3" snow

RDG:  0.74" liquid, 4.0" snow

TTN:  0.93" liquid, 3.7" snow

PHL:  0.74" liquid, 6.8" snow

ILG:  0.77" liquid, 4.3" snow

ACY:  2.22" liquid, 3.6" snow

 

Remember that storm well. Heavy wet snow in Delco with no problem accumulating during daytime. Started as rain the day before.

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