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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 5


wxmx

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New SWODY1 lost small area hatched hail near SPS.  But, finally, a non-chilly morning in Houston.

 

12Z sounding cap not too bad at FWD and OUN.  Yet.  If MAF and DRT are any indication, today could get iffy on initiation.

 

New NAM looks best for SE Oklahoma and well after dark.

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E-mail from Jeff:

 

Area has greatly moistened over the past 24 hours with muggy dewpoints in the 60’s and low 70’s. Weak short wave along with modest surface heating has ignited showers and thunderstorms this afternoon north of I-10 with fairly heavy thunderstorms ongoing over NW Harris County. This appears to be just the start of an active weather period over the next 24 hours which will hopefully bring welcomed rainfall to much of the area.
 
Weak cool front over C TX is drifting southward and will interact with increasing Gulf moisture (PWS 1.5-1.6 inches) and a stronger short wave tonight to produce numerous showers and thunderstorms. Given the development this afternoon with a weak short wave than progged for the overnight period, think the area will see a decent shot at widespread rainfall tonight-early Sunday. The weak front will drift southward and act as a focus for thunderstorms tonight. CAPE is on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg and while shear is in the modest 35-45kt range it is enough to help storms organize. Think additional storms will develop along the frontal boundary after dark from Del Rio to Lufkin and in the region of favorable lift. Not sure what to do with the ongoing current activity as meso models continue and even increase coverage over the next few hours and based on the radar trends this seems reasonable.
 
Short term models tonight develop a MCS out of NE MX and drive it toward the coastal bend while additional storms develop from College Station to Livingston and sag southward. Not sure how far NE the potential coastal bend MCS will reach as this will be a highly meso scale event. Radar trends will be very important in the overnight period. A few severe storms will be possible with gusty winds likely the main threat.
 
While moisture levels are not excessive, potentially slow storm motions and cell training could yield some high totals in a short period of time as currently noted over NW Harris County. Think most areas will see a solid 1-2 inches with isolated amounts greater than 3 inches possible. Will need to watch for any type of meso boundary developing from Harris County back WSW over the next few hours that could potentially keep storms going for the next several hours with little motion away from such a feature. 

 

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
335 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

TXZ213-272115-
HARRIS TX-
335 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM CDT...

AT 323 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER WESTERN HARRIS COUNTY
WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST. THIS STORMS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
1/2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL. JERSEY VILLAGE...ALDINE AND SPRING VILLAGE
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM. THE STORM IS MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. A
STORM SPOTTER REPORTED DIME SIZED HAIL NEAR WEST HOUSTON AIRPORT AT
329 PM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPRING...ALDINE...JERSEY VILLAGE...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...BUNKER
HILL VILLAGE...SPRING VALLEY...HEDWIG VILLAGE AND HILSHIRE VILLAGE.
 

 

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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
424 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

TXC157-201-272330-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0017.130427T2124Z-130427T2330Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FORT BEND TX-HARRIS TX-
424 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY  HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
  HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 419 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
  THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY
  AREA. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN
  HARRIS COUNTY AND ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
  BY 530 PM.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
  HOUSTON...PASADENA...MISSOURI CITY...CHANNELVIEW...DEER PARK...
  MISSION BEND...SUGAR LAND...CLOVERLEAF...FIRST COLONY...BELLAIRE...
  SOUTH HOUSTON...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...GALENA PARK...JACINTO
  CITY...STAFFORD...TOWN WEST...MEADOWS...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...
  BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...SPRING VALLEY...PINEY POINT VILLAGE...HEDWIG
  VILLAGE...SOUTHSIDE PLACE AND HILSHIRE VILLAGE.

 

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From NESDIS:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/27/13 2202Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 2145Z KUSSELSON
NOAA AMSU:1945Z  DMSP SSMIS:1415Z
.
LOCATION...SE TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...HGX...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...SLUG OF HIGHER MOISTURE HAS COME INTO S TO SE TX COAST AND
INTERACTIONS OF BOUNDARIES FOR CONVECTIVE FLAIRUP...HVY RAINFALL...WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRAINING...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...SLUG OF HIGHER PWAT MOISTURE FROM SW
GULF OF MEXICO THE PAST 12-18HRS HAS INVADED THE S TO SE TX GULF COAST.
IMPRESSIVE PWAT VALUES AS PER LATEST GPS SITES SHOWING 1.6"-1.7" AND EVEN
A 1.8" VALUES UPPER TX COAST INTO EXT SW LA.    THIS IS ABOVE 2 STANDAR
DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO AND CAN HELP PRODUCE 2" IN A QUICK 30-90 MINUTES.
COLDEST AND STEADIEST/PERSISTENT COLD TOPS CENTERED S AND WESTERN HARRIS
TO NEAR EASTERN FORT BEND/E WALLER COUNTY.  IF CONVECTIVE ON BACK END
CONTINUES IT WILL BE HELPED BY OUTFLOW FROM S HARRIS CONVECTIVE BAND THAT
FORCES HIGH MOISTURE BACK INTO THAT AREA AND WHAT ALSO MAY BE FEEDING
ACTIVITY BACK TO THE WEST CENTERED ON GONZALES/LAVACA COUNTY THAT IS
MOVING SLOWLY AND CAN GIVE 1.5" IN A SHORT TIME.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2200-0100Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING TROUGH S HARRIS INTO THE
BAY...ANY OUTFLOW CAN ALLOW FOR TRAINING/REPEAT ACTION WESTERN HARRI/E
FT BEND/E WALLER THAT MAY SHIFT EAST TO GIVE ADDITIONAL HVY RAINS TO
S HARRIS COUNTY.  SO HVY RAIN NOT FINISHED BY A LONG STRETCH..BUT MAY
WEAKEN TOWARD END OF PERIOD.  GONZALES/LAVACA AREA OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN
NEXT 1-2HRS AS SEA BREEZE CONVECTIVE BAND CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM AND
THEN STABILZE RESULTING IN HVY RAIN THRU 23Z AND RATES UP TO 1.5"/HR.
SMALL BUT CAUTIONARY THREAT THAT SOME OF GONZALES/LAVACA CONVECTIVE
CELLS COULD FEED INTO BACK OF HARRIS/
E FORT BEND/WALLER ACTIVITY AS WEAK SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY PASSES BY TO
THE NORTH NEXT FEW HRS.

 

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
506 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY  HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
  SOUTHERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 502 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
  HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
  ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS SOUTHERN HARRIS COUNTY AND ANOTHER ONE TO
  THREE INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED
  TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  MISSION BEND...SUGAR LAND...BELLAIRE...PECAN GROVE...WEST
  UNIVERSITY PLACE...STAFFORD...TOWN WEST...MEADOWS AND SOUTHSIDE
  PLACE.
 

 

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
651 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY  HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
  EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
  EXTREME WESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 945 PM CDT

* AT 634 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
  HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.  FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING
  AND THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. A SWATH OF 4 TO 5 INCHES
  OF RAIN FELL FROM ADDICKS RESERVOIR TO STAFFORD TO RELIANT STADIUM
  TO NEAR HOBBY AIRPORT. MOST OF THE RAIN FELL BETWEEN 330 PM AND
  630 PM.

FLOODING OF MANY CITY STREETS HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AND WATER     
RESCUES CONTINUE. BRAYS BAYOU AND KEEGANS BAYOU BORE THE BRUNT OF
THE HEAVY RAIN AND THESE WATERSHEDS WILL LIKELY RISE TO BANKFULL OR
POTENTIALLY EXCEED BANKFULL AND FLOOD. 7.08 INCHES OF RAIN FELL AT
KEEGANS BAYOU AT ROARKE WITH 5 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN NEAR RELIANT
STADIUM. BRAYS BAYOU WILL LIKELY COME OUT OF BANKS NEAR LAWNDALE AVE.


* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  HOUSTON...PASADENA...MISSOURI CITY...MISSION BEND...SUGAR LAND...
  FIRST COLONY...BELLAIRE...SOUTH HOUSTON...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...
  KATY...STAFFORD...TOWN WEST...MEADOWS...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...
  BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...SPRING VALLEY...PINEY POINT VILLAGE...
  FRESNO...HEDWIG VILLAGE...BROOKSIDE VILLAGE...SOUTHSIDE PLACE AND
  HILSHIRE VILLAGE.

 

 

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Morning e-mail from Jeff:

 

Very impressive rainfall event yesterday afternoon and evening over Harris and Fort Bend Counties resulting in significant and widespread flooding along with large amounts of hail. Rainfall amounts averaged 3-5 inches west and south of a line from La Porte to Pasadena to downtown Houston to near Katy and 2-3.5 inches over much of Wharton County and extreme SW Montgomery County. However, not all saw rain and that was very clear in Harris County where BUSH IAH picked up .26 of an inch yesterday while Hobby Airport recorded 6.05 inches (just missing the daily rainfall record of 6.20 inches in 1972).
 
Air mass over the region has been worked over by storms from yesterday and MCS progressing off the middle TX coast into the NW Gulf overnight. Weak diffuse frontal boundary located across SE TX currently with a weak wind shift noted across the northern ½ of the region. Models prog another short wave to move out of MX this afternoon and with surface heating over the area this morning (if clouds scatter out) the air mass will begin to recover. Moisture return is aimed at the coastal bend first and then into the Matagorda Bay region by this afternoon as SE winds return in response to lower pressures to our NW and the approach of the next short wave. Feel that the air mass will take time to recover locally and do not expect any activity until midafternoon. Short wave crossing the Rio Grande will likely develop severe storms in MX which will cross the Rio Grande this evening and possibly develop into a MCS across SW/SC TX and move toward S TX and the coastal bend similar to last night.
 
It should be noted that meso scale influences are in full control of the weather pattern with several short wave disturbances forecast to ripple through a favorable divergent flow aloft over the next 24-36 hours. Any one of these disturbances could set things off, but the limiting factor is starting to be the depletion of rich Gulf moisture. Will need to watch trends closely this afternoon for storm development.
 
As far as severe weather goes, storms will be capable of some hail and gusty winds, but for the most part do not expect widespread severe weather. Severe chances may increase overnight for the coastal bend region into Matagorda Bay if any MCS comes out of SW TX toward the coast….and this would likely be a severe wind threat.
 
As for rainfall, moisture levels have decreased since yesterday with PWS down from 1.7 inches to around 1.3-1.5 inches. Still plenty of moisture to produce heavy rainfall especially where any cell training or slow storm motion is found. There are numerous boundaries across the area and any one could become the focus for storms and heavy rainfall today-Monday. If heavy rains fall on areas hard hit on Saturday additional flooding would be likely as grounds are saturated in those areas. Most other areas are still in significant drought and could stand 2-3 inches of rainfall before getting into trouble. Do not think the hourly rainfall rates which were pushing 4.5-5.0 inches yesterday will be common today (see attached spreadsheet) for incredible short term rates on Saturday. 
 
Extended:

Moisture levels drop off more by Tuesday with only isolated chances for storms in the heat of the today. Powerful late season cold front looks to arrive Thursday or Friday with another blast of very cold air for this time of year. Record lows look possible next Saturday with lows in the 40’s as the upper pattern becomes blocky with NW flow aloft looking likely over TX pushing surges of cold air southward. 
 
Radar Rainfall Estimates:

 

 

 

 

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High/low forecast for Friday here is very similar to the coldest day average on January...probably the coldest May day I have ever experimented here...amazing considering we had a 106F a couple weeks ago (and several 100+ since March)

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High/low forecast for Friday here is very similar to the coldest day average on January...probably the coldest May day I have ever experimented here...amazing considering we had a 106F a couple weeks ago (and several 100+ since March)

I hate Winter, and nearby stations suggest we had about a quarter to a half inch of rain here.

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Showers and storms are developing to our SW where a bit better moisture is in place and convective temps have been reached. This area of showers and storms may move a bit closer to Brazoria and Galveston Counties this afternoon. Also of note is a tornado has been reported NNE of Corpus by law enforcement.

HGX_loop.gif

 

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Showers and storms are developing to our SW where a bit better moisture is in place and convective temps have been reached. This area of showers and storms may move a bit closer to Brazoria and Galveston Counties this afternoon. Also of note is a tornado has been reported NNE of Corpus by law enforcement.

HGX_loop.gif

 

 

Stolen from the internet.

 

400721_10151546914609654_702494076_n.jpg

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Saw a nice dust devil vortex on the TAMU campus where the golf course is under construction.  A downpour 3-4 miles west of us on the E side of town.  Oh so close.  

 

The 59°F high is gone from the forecast, but mid 60s expected TH and FR.  TWC as usual has jumped the shark hanging onto mid 70s+ - it's stunning how off they are on the local forecasts compared with NOAA and the local Aggie meteorologists

 

Cloudy, cooler, chance of rain - I'd take this all summer long.  Not a fan of triple digit heat combined with humidity...and our utility bill certainly isn't!

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Morning e-mail from Jeff:

 

Upper level low centered between San Antonio and Houston this morning is moving eastward slowly and will help drive another day of scattered afternoon thunderstorms.

 

Large complex of thunderstorms over the NW Gulf of Mexico south of the SW LA coast this morning is the remains from the storm cluster that moved off the middle TX coast overnight. Additional storms have developed from Matagorda Bay into Matagorda County recently. Upper level system between Houston and San Antonio responsible for the active weather will continue a slow east movement today passing directly over the SE TX region. With skies mostly clear across the area this morning, surface heating will commence early with temperatures warming into the upper 70’s by late morning. Cold pocket aloft with the upper level low and warming low levels will make for an increasingly unstable air mass by late morning into the early afternoon hours. Expect scattered storms to develop by early to mid afternoon as convective temperatures are reached.

 

Hard to pin point any favored area over another as there are likely numerous low level boundaries in place from the storms yesterday. Position of the upper low would tend to favor areas along and SE of US 59 for the best chances for afternoon convection. I am always wary with large NW Gulf storm complexes that they will “rob” the inflow of moisture and prevent or greatly limit storm development. For what it is worth the short term models do not show much activity his afternoon.

 

Of concern will be the potential for slow moving storms with weak surface to 700mb steering and continued fairly high moisture levels. Evening sounding from Corpus had a PW value of 1.74 inches and the current meso analysis shows 1.4 inch PWS along and south of I-10 and values of 1.6 along the coast. Moisture is being transported NNE from the Matagorda Bay region on the ESE side of the upper level low. With storm motions of less than 10mph and the moisture profile in place, rainfall rates of 1-2.5 inches per hour can be expected under the stronger storms. Radar estimates yesterday over Jackson and Wharton Counties indicated totals of 3-5 inches in a couple of hours. Will have to watch for cell training and continuous development of cells today especially on the SE side of the upper low where favorable divergence aloft will help vent convection.

 

Very strong cold front is still on tap for Thursday with record low temperatures likely Friday and Saturday. Friday and Saturday will feel more like early March than early May with lows in the 40’s and highs struggling to reach 70. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the front on Thursday, but at this time the severe threat will be low and the fast movement of the front should preclude prolonged heavy rainfall. 

 

sat_wv_us_loop-12.gif

 

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Morning e-mail from Jeff:

 

Powerful late season cold front will arrive on Thursday resulting in potentially record setting cold on Friday and Saturday.

 

Very cold Canadian air mass for this time of year is surging down the plains this morning and will reach TX this evening and move off the TX coast Thursday afternoon. Today will feature warm and humid conditions ahead of this front with highs in the low to mid 80’s under weak south winds. The upper level low responsible for the scattered storms on Wednesday has moved into LA this morning with a drier and subsident air mass in place across SE TX. Would not rule out an isolated shower or storm east of I-45 today…but the key word is isolated.

 

Strong front will reach our NW counties by sunrise and push off the coast by mid afternoon. High temperatures will be ahead of this boundary in the low to mid 70’s with a quick fall into the 60’s and possibly 50’s under gusty north winds. Chances for rain look marginal as best dynamics are well north of the region and drying on the backside of the LA upper level low is reducing the moisture profile. Winds also shift to the N prior to the front reaching the area which reduced surface convergence. Expect a thin line of showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm along the boundary.

 

Cold air mass surges into the region Thursday night with lows Friday morning in the mid 40’s. Low temperature records are in the upper 40’s and it appears that these will be broken. A few all-time monthly low temperature records look in jeopardy also either Friday or Saturday mornings. Highs on Friday will struggle to reach 70 degrees under conditions cold air advection. Lows Saturday morning may be cooler in the lower 40’s with clear skies and light winds.

 

Slow warm up begins Sunday with winds only slowly turning back off the Gulf by early to mid next week. Unseasonable cool and dry for early May

 

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That dry slot could really put a damper on the dampness.  There's some blow up in west Texas.

 

A nice line of showers, some severe from Abilene to San Angelo and S.  Severe T-storm watch in the Hill Country tonight.  Record lows in jeopardy from the Hill Country through CLL Saturday and Sunday am.  Potentially all-time May busters.

 

 

SJT_loop.gif

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Morning e-mail from Jeff:

 

Powerful late season cold front will sweep across the area today brining strong winds and cold temperatures.

 

At 800am the cold front is nearing the College Station area and moving SE at 25-35mph. Radar shows no showers or thunderstorms along the front as most of SE TX lies on the western flank of the large upper level storm over LA/MS under its subsidence and drying. Low level winds have turned out of the N ahead of the boundary reducing surface convergence along the boundary. It is still possible especially with a little heating this morning that a few showers may develop along or behind the boundary.

 

Bigger story will be the incoming cold air and very strong winds. Winds will increase into the 25-35mph range post front with gust to 40-45mph this afternoon and evening as strong old air advection overspreads the region. Upstream cold air lags the boundary by about 50-100 miles and then temperatures tank into the 40’s over N TX with a rare overnight May snow over the panhandle and OK. Pressure gradient remains strong through the overnight hours and the wind advisory will run from 100pm until 1000pm tonight and may be extended.  

 

The other story will be the temperatures as a fairly significant chunk of cold air slides down the plains and into TX. Both highs and lows will run 15-25 degrees below early May averages and record lows look to fall possibly both Friday and Saturday mornings. Could even see all-time monthly May low temperatures records fall at some sites. Interestingly, the last time a May low temperature record was established at BUSH IAH was 1984.

 

Lows on Friday morning will be in the low to mid 40’s and on Saturday morning the upper 30’s NW to the low to mid 40’s elsewhere.

 

Slow warming trend into early next week with no rain in the forecast

 

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