Mr Torchey Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 lets get this done before the arctic unleashes its fury on New England. t-2 first call, but would not take a big shift at all to bring a little more.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 13, 2013 Author Share Posted January 13, 2013 I love these little events that sneak up on you, nice polar front draped south of new england screams for some overrunning precip and a nice deform band a bit further north than models depict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Huge + departure today. Nighttime mins will be really impressive too - maybe some +25F? Don't even mention tomorrow...torch-down! Incredible really. Oysters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I'm not sure what to think of this event. Not expecting much here, good luck down south, but things can change.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 13, 2013 Author Share Posted January 13, 2013 Huge + departure today. Nighttime mins will be really impressive too - maybe some +25F? Don't even mention tomorrow...torch-down! Incredible really. Oysters. It's almost over Phil, for the first time in 23 months real winter weather is finally on the doorstep! I really think there is potential here hopefully luck is on our side for a change! Oysters in the r months are indeed the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Who said snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 13, 2013 Author Share Posted January 13, 2013 Who said snow? You did Reverend, you mentioned it first, and I supported this assertion for four days, this morning I lost my way and backed off.........forgive me master. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 There are a fair number of SREF members that are pretty amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 13, 2013 Author Share Posted January 13, 2013 never a bad thing having a polar front draped south of long island........potential here folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 never a bad thing having a polar front draped south of long island........potential here folks. Yeah I don't know if we'll be able to get anything. It's a pretty low potential. I'd like to see the NAM come in with something outrageous - but even the normally amped up operational models are pretty meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Tickle tickle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 rpm shows about a 3-4 hour period of light snow from midnight to 3am late monday night into tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 There are a fair number of SREF members that are pretty amped up. JMA and UKMET hit southern sections pretty good with the 2nd wave for Tuesday night into Wednesday. They both actually give us like 3-6 inches on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 13, 2013 Author Share Posted January 13, 2013 Like to see the gfs jump on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Stay the course!! Next Wintry Threat Coming Into ViewPosted on January 10, 2013 | Leave a comment Our little mixed precipitation event for next Tuesday has moved out of model fantasy range into the 5-day forecast realm. It’s not a storm that has me sitting at the edge of my seat but after an impressive streak of above normal temperatures it will be a notable snap back to reality. It does look like enough cold air will be available for a little surge of moisture coming up from the southeast to produce a wintry mix. Too early to pin down how much but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a modest coating of snow followed by some sleet and freezing rain especially inland. …Meteorological Discussion… 12z op GFS SLP and 1000-500mb thickness / 144 hour forecast (Valid 12z Wednesday) The GFS is on the slow and warm side of guidance with a weak front washing out over southern New England on Monday and another surge of moisture coming north for Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. All of this is ahead of an impressive trough/polar vortex diving south out of the Canadian Prairies toward to the Great Lakes. The GFS is a mild solution with any frozen precipitation transitioning to rain. Weak cold air damming in New England thanks to a modest 1028-ish mb high over the Maritimes/New Brunswick would slow the surface 32F isotherm’s retreat north. Most GEFS members are much chillier and farther south with the boundary. The op Euro is as well (and also much faster!). Here’s the op Euro from 12z. 12z Euro SLP and 1000-500mb thickness / Valid 12z Tuesday The Euro is much flatter with the approaching trough/polar vortex upstream over Canada and the great lakes. This means a less amplified downstream ridge and the ability for the initial boundary on Monday to slide south a bit and not wash out so soon. Even though the Euro is the more “wintry” solution for us it is actually the more reasonable/less extreme synoptic setup. The op GFS seems to be a bit too bullish dropping the PV due south into the Great Lakes with sub-480 1000-500mb thicknesses over Lake Superior at 144 hours. As usual, when the op GFS and op Euro disagree, any the op GFS only has marginal ensemble support it’s time to embrace our friends overseas at ECMWF. Cold and snow chances will be increasing over the last 2 weeks of January. More on that coming soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 And... as mentioned KW... the solutions of a cutter with rain are unlikely! As for Wednesday the GFS is notably farther north than the 12z run or the 12z Euro. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Gfs looks better, light up here Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Well well well it is going to snow this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Well well well it is going to snow this week You had locked in 3-6 for Tuesday. Maybe delayed and not denied? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 You had locked in 3-6 for Tuesday. Maybe delayed and not denied?i never locked in 3-6. I said 1-4. This thing is still evolving. I thinks it might still me more of a Mon nite into Tuesday deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 13, 2013 Author Share Posted January 13, 2013 Stay the course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 i never locked in 3-6. I said 1-4. This thing is still evolving. I thinks it might still me more of a Mon nite into Tuesday deal I'm sort of meh on the Monday night event. I think Wednesday morning is potentially more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 13, 2013 Author Share Posted January 13, 2013 There will be a nice band of snow further north than modeled. This is great stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I wonder if we end up with 2 separate snow events this week. Monday night into Tuesday and then we longer light stuff Tuesday pm and heavier stuff Tues night into Wed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I wonder if we end up with 2 separate snow events this week. Monday night into Tuesday and then we longer light stuff Tuesday pm and heavier stuff Tues night into Wed? That's what is modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 13, 2013 Author Share Posted January 13, 2013 I could see this trending all rain here and snow further north no forecast but hey the trend all year has been north and west. It's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I could see this trending all rain here and snow further north no forecast but hey the trend all year has been north and west. It's coming I could see that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I could see that too.I missed you in air. What'd you have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 13, 2013 Author Share Posted January 13, 2013 It would be brutal but if mpm gets snow that's all that matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 gfs is warm for the wednesday event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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