AvantHiatus Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 You need to re-read the definition of -PDO. You need to re-read the definition of being human. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 So where is the pic of normal to compare it too? It's a T+348h prog. lolz! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Well, if it's not true....that means the AGW theory is severely broken, as well as the laws of thermodynamics. I hope you're not one of those nutty conservatives, or liberal. Hell if I care about your political ideaology. The Earth will do what it wants, it won't be saved by 'god'. Point 1: AGW is a hypothesis...not a theory....as written it is not testable on a human timescale.... Point 2: The AGW hypothesis could be falsified, yet the laws of thermodynamics remain quite intact... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 You need to re-read the definition of being human. Can you explain how AGW will force the anomalies in the Gulf of Alaska to stay higher than the anomalies south of the Aleutians? i'm still curious about this supposed consequence of AGW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Can you explain how AGW will force the anomalies in the Gulf of Alaska to stay higher than the anomalies south of the Aleutians? i'm still curious about this supposed consequence of AGW. Semi-permanent ridiculously resilient ridge. The SSTA domain should feedback on itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Semi-permanent ridiculously resilient ridge. The SSTA domain should feedback on itself. So if the ridge is only semi-permanenent, then how will the PDO stay positive? This doesn't even address how the ridge is going to stay there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 So if the ridge is only semi-permanenent, then how will the PDO stay positive? This doesn't even address how the ridge is going to stay there. Ocean inertia. I could see long-term neutral PDOs appearing when we flip back to a -NAO. There was a study on cloud feedbacks over the Pacific. In essence, once the waters warm enough, fog formation becomes impossible. This will make it more difficult for regions of low pressure to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Ocean inertia. I could see long-term neutral PDOs appearing when we flip back to a -NAO. There was a study on cloud feedbacks over the Pacific. In essence, once the waters warm enough, fog formation becomes impossible. This will make it more difficult for regions of low pressure to form. You are talking scales of warming that are almost physically impossible. Nothing you post is passing the sanity test...nevermind not providing us with some literature that supports the idea that the PDO cannot go negative in a warming world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 http://geography.wr.usgs.gov/fog/ Coastal marine fog is an important meteorological phenomenon for California. A cloud—either stratus or stratocumulus—is called “fog” when it is low or touching the ground. Marine fog forms as a result of complex interactions between ocean evaporation, aerosols, atmospheric pressure, vertical air layering, onshore-offshore temperature gradients, and coastal mountain topography. The marine cloud layer provides moisture to the arid and semi-arid coast, especially in the warm summer months, as it moves from the ocean into coastal communities and ecosystems of California. In 2010 researchers revealed that summertime fog hours had declined by 33% over the last century (Johnstone and Dawson 2010). Natural resource managers working to protect California’s coastal plant and animal communities in the face of a warming climate became alarmed. Was the trend a result of climate change, long term global cycles, or statistical coincidence? Additional research was needed to understand fog dynamics over time and explore implications for the future. If the decline in coastal fog were to continue, many species and ecosystems would be significantly impacted. It became clear that maps were needed showing the location of the foggiest areas to help guide restoration and planting activities, however no easily accessible fog maps existed. Despite the easily accessible, nearly real-time satellite images of fog available from the National Weather Service, the image data formats are difficult to utilize and manipulate by most ecologists and planners. To assist in gathering and making fog maps more accessible and usable to both professionals and the general public, the Pacific Coastal Fog Project was started in early 2012. The project was initiated and funded by the California Landscape Conservation Cooperative (CA LCC) and the U.S. Geological Survey’s Climate and Land-Use Change Mission Area, Land Change Science Program to create ecologically relevant fog datasets. The work intensified during the first International Pacific Coastal Fog workshop in April 2012 sponsored by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation. This workshop brought together a multidisciplinary group of scientists and natural resource managers to assess current understanding of coastal fog as a system of interacting ocean, air, and land surface processes. This systems view includes examination of the plants, animals, and humans impacted by fog and that, in turn, also impact fog. http://www.pnas.org/content/107/10/4533.short Climatic context and ecological implications of summer fog decline in the coast redwood region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 A decrease in fog over a few decade period and no fog at all plus low pressure having trouble forming are not the same thing....and this still doesn't explain how you sustain a permanent PDO...what's going to prevent the waters south of the Aletians from warming more than the GOA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 It should be obvious ORH. There is always a trough of low pressure south of the Aleutians when GOA heights are strongly elevated. Additionally, one has to consider the increased meridional behavior of the jet stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 It should be obvious ORH. There is always a trough of low pressure south of the Aleutians when GOA heights are strongly elevated. Additionally, one has to consider the increased meridional behavior of the jet stream. So during a La Nina, the ridge from the GOA won't retrograde like it always does? Why not? Your answers don't make any real sense. Or they aren't worth much on face value. I could easily say "cloud feedbacks are going to cause negative feedbacks and global warming will be mostly offset this century"....you'd ask me to show you some actual work on the subject rather than taking my word for it. Even if I tell you "it's obvious, the increased warming will cause more evaporation and cloud cover will increase which will reflect more incoming solar radiation"...something that mind sound decent but doesn't add up under more intense scrutiny that literature provides us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 So during a La Nina, the ridge from the GOA won't retrograde like it always does? Why not? Your answers don't make any real sense. Or they aren't worth much on face value. I could easily say "cloud feedbacks are going to cause negative feedbacks and global warming will be mostly offset this century"....you'd ask me to show you some actual work on the subject rather than taking my word for it. Even if I tell you "it's obvious, the increased warming will cause more evaporation and cloud cover will increase which will reflect more incoming solar radiation"...something that mind sound decent but doesn't add up under more intense scrutiny that literature provides us. Indeed very true. Fortunately this is not a true scientific forum. My theory holds more integrity when I also rule out la nina events. I think we are headed to a Pliocene pacific state. It turns out in that sub-tropical ocean basins, raising the sea surface temperature is a net-negative influence on cloud cover due to the baroclinic layer being insufficient to generate tropical convection while being warm enough to prevent fog formation. These ocean basins also tend to be located in the Horse Latitudes, or they will be eventually as the Hadley Cells expand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Indeed very true. Fortunately this is not a true scientific forum. My theory holds more integrity when I also rule out la nina events. I think we are headed to a Pliocene pacific state.[/size] Unless you have performed scientific experiments re: PDO, stop playing loose with SCIENTIFIC terms....you have a "hypothesis".....not a theory! And you have the nerve to call this a "non-scientific" board, when it is obvious you have no CLUE as to the methods of scientific deduction!! lolz! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Looks like mother Earth needs her air conditioner fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Looks like mother Earth needs her air conditioner fixed. That's how "Mother Earth" expels heat.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 That's how "Mother Earth" expels heat.... Seems to be doing a lot of expelling without much cooling the last decade. What's that called again? Oh yes, the greenhouse effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Seems to be doing a lot of expelling without much cooling the last decade. What's that called again? Oh yes, the greenhouse effect. I can never tell if he is being sarcastic or serious. If the latter then he is a denier, but I think he tries to hide it. We will definitely need a super-nino to ever have a chance at another la nina, otherwise we will be stuck in neutral 'hell'. The heat is not just on the surface, the 20C isotherm runs down to like 300 meters which is fookin' bat**** crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisf97212 Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 That's how "Mother Earth" expels heat.... I would expect the UAH numbers to start increasing. Kind of suprised they haven't shown more of a bump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 I can never tell if he is being sarcastic or serious. If the latter then he is a denier, but I think he tries to hide it. We will definitely need a super-nino to ever have a chance at another la nina, otherwise we will be stuck in neutral 'hell'. The heat is not just on the surface, the 20C isotherm runs down to like 300 meters which is fookin' bat**** crazy. There will be plenty of Ninas whether there is a supernino or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 I can never tell if he is being sarcastic or serious. If the latter then he is a denier, but I think he tries to hide it. We will definitely need a super-nino to ever have a chance at another la nina, otherwise we will be stuck in neutral 'hell'. The heat is not just on the surface, the 20C isotherm runs down to like 300 meters which is fookin' bat**** crazy. No, it's actually normal for the 20C isotherm to reach 300-400m under an antecedent El Niño thermocline. Literally everything you post here is pure horses**t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 There will be plenty of Ninas whether there is a supernino or not. I disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 I disagree. The frequency and magnitude of ENSO hasn't changed much at all in the past century...I'm pretty sure we're going to see a La Nina in the next few years....and many more after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 From 2006-2013, we were building up 10 Hiroshima bombs of heat every second at the equator, especially inside the deeper ocean. There is now a deep reservoir of warm water available. You could run into a feedback where the el nino alone causes west winds allowing more heat to rise to the surface. This even could go grow into monstrous proportions, were talking like ENSO 3.4 anomalies of 3.5C+. We won't get away from the hiatus without some blowback spike warming, that is a given. Such an event is absolutely not required to see a weak la nina or what not, but when we talk about deep -PDO and strong la nina, it's a different story. The world ocean is massively saturated with heat, compared to the 20th century benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Are you this stupid? The PDO & ENSO are both based on SST contrast(s), not temperatures. If the oceans warmed 100 degrees everywhere, that wouldn't change the frequency of La Niñas or negative PDOs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 From 2006-2013, we were building up 10 Hiroshima bombs of heat every second at the equator, especially inside the deeper ocean. There is now a deep reservoir of warm water available. You could run into a feedback where the el nino alone causes west winds allowing more heat to rise to the surface. This even could go grow into monstrous proportions, were talking like ENSO 3.4 anomalies of 3.5C+. We won't get away from the hiatus without some blowback spike warming, that is a given. Such an event is absolutely not required to see a weak la nina or what not, but when we talk about deep -PDO and strong la nina, it's a different story. The world ocean is massively saturated with heat, compared to the 20th century benchmark. Even if we have a mega nino that heat will get spread around the Earth. The baseline will be Warmer. But the ocean will find an equilibrium through the trades coming back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 ENSO is definitely based on sheer SSTA...they cannot be seperated. Strong ENSO events in the opposite PDO phase are not possible. ^Agreed TGW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 ENSO is definitely based on sheer SSTA...they cannot be seperated. Strong ENSO events in the opposite PDO phase are not possible. ^Agreed TGW TGW is trying to help you understand this..he doesn't agree with you regarding the PDO/ENSO because he actually knows what he's talking about. Both ENSO and the PDO are detrended and the former is technically based on SST contrast, not temperatures. Even if we warm 100 degrees, it'll have no effect on these phenomenon. Get that into your head, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 No, the PDO thing. We will never have a -PDO again. From now on land will be playing 'catch-up' with the ocean (thanks hiatus). Point taken nflwxman. I am a skeptic on the other side of the spectrum. When the PDO goes negative in a few years, will you never post here again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 When the PDO goes negative in a few years, will you never post here again? I hope so, never communed with such toxic posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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