tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 you can see where the 2 distinct branches are, they remain kind of separate. One cuts through central and ne pa northeast...then you have the coastal precip. dc and balt get the shaft here with less than .1 qpf as they are stuck between the 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Could double my totals this year with this. could double the last 2 winter totals in Philly.** lol. Take your 1-3" and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 Some precip totals: MIV: 0.21- 2 M temps might be an issue, upper 30's when precip comes in ACY: 0.20 - Same issues as MIV PHL: 0.15- Should be all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 prettty distinct dry slot from central VA to TTN to sandy hook. Fills in from Balt to TTN south sparing PA. concerning look to that orientation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 could double the last 2 winter totals in Philly.** lol. Take your 1-3" and run. Yeah in this screwed up 2 winters I will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Some precip totals: MIV: 0.21- 2 M temps might be an issue, upper 30's when precip comes in ACY: 0.20 - Same issues as MIV PHL: 0.15- Should be all snow i got .25" for Philly on SV maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 prettty distinct dry slot from central VA to TTN to sandy hook. Fills in from Balt to TTN south sparing PA. concerning look to that orientation Yea its basically aligned right up the i95 corridor and def remains a possibility. Need that northern vort further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 DAMN YOU 0Z EURO!!! Dr NO strikes again, first it teases with snowfall maps yesterday that were too cold in the boundary layers, and 0z another tease for the weekend storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 i got .25" for Philly on SV maps. I'm using the AccuWX text output. That's what it's saying. .01 + .07 + .07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 i got .25" for Philly on SV maps. he has the raw data from accuwx pro site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 looks like incoming overunning on euro next tues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Just looking at the 12z run. Should be able to get at least a few inches of snow for everyone, but the qpf does look light and the system really intensifies when it pulls away Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 totally different look @ 108 for the next threat. ejecting the shortwave east instead of holding it back in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 totally different look @ 108 for the next threat. ejecting the shortwave east instead of holding it back in the SW. confluence carves that first overunning, gotta see if it tried to bring a low up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 still trying to hold it back @ 120, really elongates it. (mods, please move if off topic. just didn't know where to put it and wanted to put something brief on it up) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 confluence carves that first overunning, gotta see if it tried to bring a low up the coast. Yeah, looks like whatever ejected into texas wasn't strong enough and it gets sheared out. Closes off back in the SW @ 126 this run though. Might be the dreaded SW bias of the euro at play here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 confluence carves that first overunning, gotta see if it tried to bring a low up the coast. negative, going to have to see what ejects out of the sw...still think their may be some precip next tues with some overunning. Models usually always carve that up this far out and bring it closer as we move closer in range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I guess I'm not going to be cross-country skiing on the Perkiomen Trail this weekend. Bummer! Gotta have an absolute minimum of 3 or 4 inches, though 6 to 8 inches is probably the right amount to have a truly enjoyable time. I will still enjoy whatever snow comes my way on Saturday. After last winter, I'm not going to be picky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 On the 132 hour panel, 500mb, you can really see that ridge poking up over the Western US. The upper air has that look, which would point to winter storm threat late next week, but still waiting for the rest of the run to come in. Surface maps show it pretty cold over most of the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Tom and I looking at the 12z euro... and for the mods: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 This run really suppresses anything from forming next week. Definitely will be cold, but dry. But with that ridge really taking off over the Western US, you have that cutoff over the southwest, just have to wait and see how this unfolds in time. Could be the Euro bias at play here with holding that cutoff back. By the way, those pics are really funny. Gotta have a sense of humor in times like this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Looking at the Accu euro output PHL 0.15" PTW 0.17" MQS 0.15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 ^^ !! lol. Wonder if we can get some decent over running to bump up totals or some type of inverted trough during this set up for someone in the CWA. any mets/adam/tom(phlwx) care to chime in on any "bonus" potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 would be nice to get little white since cold seems to be around for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 This winter is starting to have the feel of 2008-2009, that was the ultimate nickel and dime winter 28" locally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 ^^ !! lol. Wonder if we can get some decent over running to bump up totals or some type of inverted trough during this set up for someone in the CWA. any mets/adam/tom(phlwx) care to chime in on any "bonus" potential. I think Central/North Jersey might get some "bonus" on the inverted trough IF it forms but it's going to be a tough sale for Philly and west. That said, 2-4 or 1-3 (depending on model) is not a bad haul for December. Take it and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I think Central/North Jersey might get some "bonus" on the inverted trough IF it forms but it's going to be a tough sale for Philly and west. That said, 2-4 or 1-3 (depending on model) is not a bad haul for December. Take it and run. considering dec avgs like 3-5 for the region most places will be at normal for the month or abv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 hope people like the cold, euro is brutal in the 8-10 day with lows 10-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Agreed. Anyhow, taking your advice: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 hope people like the cold, euro is brutal in the 8-10 day with lows 10-0 thats why i hope we have some white on the ground to make it feel worth while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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