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Aussie (& S-Hemisphere) Cyclone Action 2012-2013


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Evan's eye moved along the S coast of the Samoan Island of Upolu, causing an apparently high, damaging surge in the capital, Apia:

http://www.stuff.co....lone-hits-Samoa

Here's an IR loop of the cyclone's center meandering and reforming over the Samoan Islands, as well as some MV imagery showing a well-defined center:

rbtop-animated_EVAN.gif

post-19-0-58082500-1355387255_thumb.jpg

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Few people probably know this but the NWS has an office in Pago Pago, here is their website:

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/samoa/?ewwa

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS

444 PM SST WED DEC 12 2012

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN (04F) WAS

CENTERED NEAR 14.0S 171.5W OR ABOUT 60 NM WEST OF PAGO PAGO...MOVING

EAST 6 KT. TC EVAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSER TO NEAR TUTUILA ON

THURSDAY MORNING AS IT USHER HURRICANE FORCE WINDS UP TO 75 TO 95

KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT BEFORE THURSDAY NOON. THE EYE OF TROPICAL

CYCLONE EVAN HAS SLIDED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF UPOLU NEAR TAFITOALA

AND LALOMANU VILLAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS

ARE FOUND ACROSS UPOLU AND TUTUILA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A

RESULT...SEVERE WEATHER WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION DURING THE

NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

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Now this qualifies as being a bad time to be in these zones:

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR AMERICAN SAMOA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS

947 PM SST WED DEC 12 2012

ASZ001>003-131615-

TUTUILA-AUNUU-MANUA-SWAINS-

947 PM SST WED DEC 12 2012

...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...

...A HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES. ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS 45 TO 60

MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH INCREASING TO 60 TO 70 MPH WITH GUSTS TO

85 MPH OVERNIGHT.

.THURSDAY...HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 70S. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 75 TO 95 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 120 MPH

INCREASING TO 85 TO 110 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 130 MPH BEFORE NOON.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN

THE UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS 75 TO 85 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 95 MPH.

.FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AT TIMES.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS NEAR 80. LOWS IN

THE UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS 60 TO 70 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH.

.SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

MID 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH WITH

GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

.SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO

40 MPH.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED. HIGHS IN

THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH.

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The cyclone has essentially stalled out between the Samoan Islands as it's strengthened. Winds are now up to 100 kt, and additional strengthening is expected before the center nudges W and hits the other big island, Savai'i. Fortunately, that island is less populated, although I notice when zooming in on Google Maps that there are some settlements or resorts:

post-19-0-35997100-1355431692_thumb.gif

post-19-0-47818100-1355431763_thumb.jpg

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Few people probably know this but the NWS has an office in Pago Pago, here is their website:

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/samoa/?ewwa

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS

444 PM SST WED DEC 12 2012

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN (04F) WAS

CENTERED NEAR 14.0S 171.5W OR ABOUT 60 NM WEST OF PAGO PAGO...MOVING

EAST 6 KT. TC EVAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSER TO NEAR TUTUILA ON

THURSDAY MORNING AS IT USHER HURRICANE FORCE WINDS UP TO 75 TO 95

KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT BEFORE THURSDAY NOON. THE EYE OF TROPICAL

CYCLONE EVAN HAS SLIDED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF UPOLU NEAR TAFITOALA

AND LALOMANU VILLAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS

ARE FOUND ACROSS UPOLU AND TUTUILA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A

RESULT...SEVERE WEATHER WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION DURING THE

NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Slided LOL

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A signature trait of Evan has been a large CDO. While it's not the most beautiful IR presentation I've ever seen, that huge area of extremely cold cloud tops is pretty impressive. It's in stark contrast to the generally tepid convection (yellows and oranges) we were looking at all season in the NATL:

post-19-0-23625500-1355608813_thumb.jpg

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The eye is passing just off the W tip of Fiji's second-largest island, Vanua Levu (pop. ~130K). The Fiji Met Service has the center turning S and passing just offshore of the main island as a major hurricane-- which means the island will be on the stronger (left) side. We should get some good obs out of Nadi, where the airport is.

post-19-0-74483800-1355690389_thumb.jpg

post-19-0-24486600-1355690512_thumb.gif

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Latest JTWC package has it as a Cat 4 (115 kt), and they bring it very close to Nadi. So, if the forecast holds, that airport should be in the stronger eyewall of a Cat 3/4.

From the text portion of the package:

ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) SHOWS AN INTENSE SYSTEM WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A RAGGED 7NM EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE SEEN IN THE IR, POSITIONING FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES AND PHFO, AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM FIJI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE, WITH CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOW INDICATING 113 KNOTS FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES.

post-19-0-71493000-1355691864_thumb.gif

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Wow that looks really good.. Aside from Nadi Airport are there any other obs there??

Good question-- I'm not sure. I know there's at least one other airport, on the SE side of the island-- but I think Nadi should get much stronger winds. The island is surprisingly populated-- about 600K people-- so there should be other stations, I would think.

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