HurricaneJosh Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 The Euro also hints at a W-moving system threatening Madagascar around Day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Meanwhile, the Euro is showing a low impacting the Kimberley region of Western Australia in the 8-10-day range. Let's see how that feature evolves. Pilbara imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 Pilbara imo Gonna shift W, you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 The Euro has lost the Kimberley/Pilbara feature-- and the Madagascar thing looks like scrambled eggs in the latest run-- but the Coral Sea low has become much better-defined in the 8-10-day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 The Euro has generally trended less interesting with everything this evening: The Kimberley/Pilbara system has disappeared for the last couple of runs. The Coral Sea low goes poof! by Day 10-- just seems to die in its cradle. The Madagascar system looks like a crappy slopgyre perched off the N tip of the island by Day 10. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Holiday Cheer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 Model lameness continues. The Euro shows a weak SPAC low camping out and fizzling near New Caledonia late in the period, while a really ugly, strung-out looking piece of crap sweeps W across N Madagascar toward Mozambique. Crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 The Oz threats seem to be crapping out. However, the Euro continues to insist on a large, loose, slow-moving, low-end hurricane sweeping N Madagascar in the 8-10-day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 The Euro now develops a small cyclone in the SPAC, S of the Solomon Islands, in the 5-7-day range-- but then kills it. Shear, etc., I guess. The Madagascar situation is much more interesting. The Euro has been insistent on a storm threatening the island late in the period, and this feature has steadily become better-defined with each run over the last couple of days. The latest (00Z) run now shows a very strong cyclone approaching Madagascar and then recurving poleward just offshore in the 9-10-day range. They definitely need to keep an eye on this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 The BoM has initiated advices on Tropical Low way out in the Indian Ocean. It's expected to drift S and could pose an outside threat to Exmouth in a few days. In other news, the Euro is showing twin microcanes-- one smaller and cuter than the other-- E of Madagascar in the 8-10-day range: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoastLow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Conditions suck for intensification/landward movement of the low off the NW coast. No monsoon trough to feed it and a strong high over the continent to keep it away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Freda! I know there's something going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 TC 05P located near 12.5S 159.9E with winds of 55kt (JTWC) TC 06S located near 17.0S 110.6E with winds of 40 kt. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 TC 05P located near 12.5S 159.9E with winds of 55kt (JTWC) TC 06S located near 17.0S 110.6E with winds of 40 kt. Steve Thanks, Steve, for staying on top of things while I was traveling. Here are both cyclones in relation to Oz. Freda should strengthen into a decent hurricane as it moves S-- however, the JTWC has it weakening to a TS as it bends SE toward New Caledonia. Both the JTWC and BoM keep Mitchell weak and offshore of Western Australia: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Well, poleward of 20 degrees latitude the waters off western Australia are sort of EPAC-ish in terms of SSTs. Stve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 1) Abba singer was Frida, not Freda, my bad. But looking good. Finger fumbled saving the image... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 31, 2012 Author Share Posted December 31, 2012 Well, poleward of 20 degrees latitude the waters off western Australia are sort of EPAC-ish in terms of SSTs. Stve Yeah, I've noticed that-- that strong tropical cyclones around Oz are really pretty-much confined to the tropics-- unlike the NATL, where we can have spectacular, intense cyclones outside the tropics (Andrew, Charley, etc.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 31, 2012 Author Share Posted December 31, 2012 Ok, here's the Down Under Roundup: Mitchell went poof! Freda is probably peaking right now and should start to slowly unravel as it meanders S and SE, in the general direction of New Caledonia. In the long range (8-10 days), the Euro is showing Freda as a large, loose, remnant low hovering off the C Queensland coast. Of interest to me are the longer-term signals in the S Indian Ocean off Africa. A cyclone is currently forming, and the Euro makes it quite strong while recurving it poleward and bringing it directly over La Reunion around Day 4. But after that, the Euro shows another cyclone-- this time a severe microcane-- approaching the upper end of Madagascar in the 8-10-day period. Kinda interestin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 31, 2012 Author Share Posted December 31, 2012 Meteo France is forecasting a hurricane-strength cyclone to pass very close to La Reunion within the next 72 hr. The red symbol indicates an intensity in the range of 64-89 kt (10-min)-- so a mid-range Cat 1 to low-end Cat 3 on our scale: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 1, 2013 Author Share Posted January 1, 2013 Cyclone Dumile has formed in the S Indian Ocean. The modeling has been pretty steady on this one, and so both the JTWC and Meteo France seem confident in a basically S heading, with the cyclone's core passing W of La Reunion. The JTWC brings it up to 100 kt, so it will be a fortunate miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 1, 2013 Author Share Posted January 1, 2013 P.S. The Euro's holding steady on the titillating scenario of a potent microcane threatening the N end of Madagascar in the 8-10-day range: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 1, 2013 Author Share Posted January 1, 2013 By the way, just a little background Re: those two big islands E of Madagascar:La Réunion is part of France. The population is ~840K and the capital is Saint-Denis. Maurice (English: Mauritius) is an independent island nation that enjoys the distinction of being the only African country rated a "full democracy" by the Democracy Index. The population is ~1.3 million and the capital is Port Louis. Both islands are resort destinations and look quite lovely.The last hurricane-strength cyclone to directly impact La Reunion was Clotilda 1987, a Cat 1 that drifted very slowly across the island. Mauritius had a much more serious impact from Hollanda 1994, a borderline Cat 2/3 that rammed the main island (and capital city) head-on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 2, 2013 Author Share Posted January 2, 2013 The lastest JTWC package suggests Dumile has wandered a tad E, thus increasing the threat to La Reunion. The latest forecast brings the center very close to the island with winds of 75 kt. Interestingly, the Meteo France track does not reflect this E wobble, and they still take it well W of the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 2, 2013 Author Share Posted January 2, 2013 It's trying to organize a core. JTWC puts the current intensity at 55 kt: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 3, 2013 Author Share Posted January 3, 2013 In S-Hemisphere news today... Cyclone Dumile is brushing near La Reunion with winds of 65 kt-- however, the core is missing the island. The Euro is showing an intense cyclone forming near Indonesia and heading S in the 7-10-day period. The current modeling suggests it'll miss Western Australia to the W-- but of course we'll need to keep an eye on this. A lot can change in 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 GFS takes it into the Kimberley between Broome and the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 3, 2013 Author Share Posted January 3, 2013 GFS takes it into the Kimberley between Broome and the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf Oh, interesting. Does it look strong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Oh, interesting. Does it look strong? Not particularly, but the GFS almost never ramps up supercanes in the MR anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 4, 2013 Author Share Posted January 4, 2013 So, Re: the Oz threat, the models diverge greatly: the Euro keeps it weak and scuttles it WSW, keeping it well offshore of Western Australia. The GFS shows a much stronger system threatening the Kimberley. We'll just have to see. Cyclone Dumile passed W of La Reunion yesterday, and it looks like the island was inside the gale radius and got some decent winds. And it looks like more fun is on the way for La Reunion and Maurice. The last couple of runs have shown a cyclone raking the Mascarene Islands late in the period: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 5, 2013 Author Share Posted January 5, 2013 The Euro has backed off from the Mascarene threat-- it now recurves a weaker cyclone well E of the islands. In Oz, the model is back to showing a strong cyclone developing N of the Kimberley and shuttling WSW, moving parallel to-- and offshore of-- the Pilbara coast. So nothing too exciting just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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