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Mountain West Discussion


Chinook

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We received about 80% of average snowfall here for the winter but the mountains much less so even though there are no fires yet we will probably have a water shortage again unless we can get more in the next month or so. Last year was awful so we need a good year to make up for it.

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To date we're at 116% of normal snowfall in Elko, though if there was no more snow after today it would be slightly below normal for the season.

 

However, for the water year we are at 79% normal precipitation to date, so better than last year but still not great.  Hopefully we have a wet spring.

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The models show a light snow on Thursday night/Friday morning. Then it shows the snow really stalls on the Front Range on Friday night and Saturday. The ECMWF has 0.25" water equivalent in 3 hours in Denver Friday, and that's just 3 hours of a long storm. I was hoping to go to Denver Friday.

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Nothing will stall here, except high pressure in the summer. Ever. I'm convinced of it. Closed lows only exist 96 hours out as figments of computers' deranged imaginations. How come forecast progressive patterns are always right and stalled patterns are always wrong, instead of the other way around? (I would love to be wrong...)

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Weather patterns stalling?  This isn't Nantucket.  There have been a relative few lows that stall here just perfectly. And it is true that upper level ridges stall here.  Still, Fort Collins and Denver average over 50" per year. (Around 60" per year 1971-2000). 

 

Last winter, while all the eastern United States people were complaining of a warm winter, Fort Collins got 3 storms of around 9".  That's not too shabby.

 

This was our last storm over 10" in Fort Collins. 

 

http://greatlakes.salsite.com/snowfall/20091030_colorado.gif

 

 

I was going to upload some of today's model maps. However, they don't seem to be uploading.

 

9z SREF: just a couple of inches

 

12z 4km NAM: 6" for Denver, 12" eastern Adams county - extremely heavy snow for the NW corner of Kansas.

 

6z GFS: 4 to 5"

 

12z GFS: 10 to 12"

 

12z NAM: 4 to 8" over the Front Range cities

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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interesting. I think there is also something psychological about being able to see a zillion runs of models... if just one has a blockbuster, we seize on that. An analog might be all the discussion among members to our southeast about significant tornadic outbreaks that just don't end up happening. (fortunately for all but the chasers!!)

 

Still, it's funny that the errors this particular year for storms in this neck of the woods all seem to be clustered on the dry side of what is forecast. Probably has to do with the bomb generator that seems to have parked itself off the east coast. Who knows.

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Yep the NWS admits it is a quick mover

 

.BUT THE STRONG DYNAMICS WILLOVERCOME MOST OF THAT. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL SEE A DECENT SHOT OFSNOW AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER...BUT IT WILL ALSO BE A RELATIVELYQUICK SHOT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE SHORT DURATION OFTHE STORM. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD CONTINUE

 

 

go Colorado State!

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Yep the NWS admits it is a quick mover

 

.BUT THE STRONG DYNAMICS WILLOVERCOME MOST OF THAT. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL SEE A DECENT SHOT OFSNOW AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER...BUT IT WILL ALSO BE A RELATIVELYQUICK SHOT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE SHORT DURATION OFTHE STORM. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD CONTINUE

 

 

go Colorado State!

 

Very thankful that we're actually getting some water falling from the sky this March. Reckon I'll head to Eldora tomorrow, bright and early before everyone gets stuck in the canyon. Hope this helps with putting out that fire you guys have burning up that way.

 

Oh, and... Go Buffs! : :snowing:

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There hasn't been very much snow at my house, although it is blowing and obviously it is accumulating on the streets, since it is 20 degrees.  Oddly, now the highest snow depths I have seen this season have been in Cleveland and Denver.  There has been impressive frontogenesis and vorticity advection with this storm. There has also been some decent upslope flow. The surface winds were north, but the 700-850 winds were northeast and converging near Denver.

 

post-1182-0-75830600-1364068256_thumb.pn

 

post-1182-0-22048400-1364068258_thumb.gi

 

post-1182-0-27262000-1364068259_thumb.gi

 

post-1182-0-20760400-1364068260_thumb.gi

 

 

 

 

 

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At least 5" fell in southern Fort Collins. It may have been as high as 7". Nice find on the snow water equivalent. I think we can call this one a "major" for far eastern Colorado. The best web sites I can find on the snow pack water equivalent in the West are:

 

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/westsnow.pl

 

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/snotelanom/basinswe.html

 

yesterday's temps at 5:00AM.  It got to 7* at Fort Collins airport yesterday.

 

post-1182-0-99483000-1364264203_thumb.gi

 

 

 

 

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