OhioBlizzard Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I'd bet a lot of that ice is slush. It's difficult for thick ice to form at this point of the winter without frigid temps. That said, I'm sure what ice is out there will limit enhancement. Yeah I would think a lot of that is slush and not solid ice. Given highs in the upper 30's to near 40 the next day or two with some rain thrown in, I'm sure some decent holes will open up. That said, I think we can get some decent enhancement/effect as we head through the week into next weekend. What I am concerned about is we will have a really soggy ground, highs in the low to mid 30s, and a late feb/early march sun angle. So unless we can get a base established, it could be a fall then partially (or fully) melt during afternoon, fall then melt, etc type of situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 We should be able to get some pretty good looks at the ice cover today, hopefully some of the high resolution imagery can grab a picture while there are clear skies. GFS pumps out almost 0.3" of liquid for the enhancement/wrap around snows the latter half of the week. And as OhioBlizzard said, this could be one of those occasions where you get snow everyday but not much lasts. Look at CLE last week, almost 10" of snow in a week (granted less than 3" IMBY) but no more than 3" on the ground at the airport with rapid settling/melting at any opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 This is going to be an interesting storm to follow-up. Lot's of bust potential. Glad we don't have to worry about that as it will be all rain here. With temp in the low 30's following the storm I've got a feeling that any snow will be limited. And as you guys mentioned, will most likely melt off during the day. Bring on Morch! It was so warm last year that I planted grass in March without any worry of freezing. The grass came in nicely as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Really nice day out..sunshine and temps in the low 40s. Hopefully that helped to break the ice up a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Really nice day out..sunshine and temps in the low 40s. Hopefully that helped to break the ice up a little bit. First sunny day in quite some time. The satellite showed some thick ice cover, with some decent breaks to our west. I'm sure a lot is slushy and with tomorrow's inch of rain, should loosen up a bit more. The past two years have been an incredible disappointment for sure. The expected colder than average early start to March also sets up the stage for a pretty crummy spring for the lakeshore areas. I'm not looking forward to the spring days where it's 75 degrees a few miles inland and 48, raw, and windy along the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Ohio misses out on another storm(accept for the far northern region). Yeah, it's a shame. Sometimes with a low to the west like this, you'd see a nice front end wallop (3-5") in a short period of time before the warm tongue sneaks in and switches to rain and dryslot moves in. No such luck with that at all this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 What a synoptic disaster the last 2 winters have been. Winds coming out of the NNE aren't going to be great for snow as they will be moving across the largest part of the ice pack. Add in marginal temps... Hopefully toledo cashes in on big snows. Rain will be pouring down from Sandusky on east while nw oh gets a nice cement job. Apps runner might actually do well in his area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Yeah, it's a shame. Sometimes with a low to the west like this, you'd see a nice front end wallop (3-5") in a short period of time before the warm tongue sneaks in and switches to rain and dryslot moves in. No such luck with that at all this winter. Yeah, another disappointment. Always seems that every year as we head into spring we get a system that lays down a nice swath of snow over Lake Erie or just on the other side in Ontario, while we get a cold rain or mix. Frustrating to see areas 75 miles north getting 4-8", but with our luck so far this year with synoptic storms, sadly, I would expect nothing less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 What a synoptic disaster the last 2 winters have been. Winds coming out of the NNE aren't going to be great for snow as they will be moving across the largest part of the ice pack. Add in marginal temps... Hopefully toledo cashes in on big snows. Rain will be pouring down from Sandusky on east while nw oh gets a nice cement job. Apps runner might actually do well in his area. Looks like CLE is going with 5-8" of heart attack snow out in Toledo. Happy someone in Ohio gets something decent out of this while I'll have my umbrella ready for a nice cold rain tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 We'll get light accumulations Wednesday night into Thursday and potentially some Saturday into Sunday as well. I'm coming home on Friday and I want the ground white. Models showing a nice shortwave crashing into British Colombia around March 3rd...if the blocking can weaken a bit by that point it may deliver a moderate end snowstorm somewhere near by around March 6-7...although with that system I'm more worried about suppression than being too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 If this had been a snow event, we'd have busted way low with regards to QPF. Most guidance has over an inch for us. We've yet to crack a tenth. I'll be curious how much rain falls in the bucket by morning. It's funny how no one cares if 0.4" of rain falls when the models showed over an inch. Rain is rain. If 4" of snow fell when 10"+ was forecast, you wouldn't hear the end of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 If this had been a snow event, we'd have busted way low with regards to QPF. Most guidance has over an inch for us. We've yet to crack a tenth. I'll be curious how much rain falls in the bucket by morning. It's funny how no one cares if 0.4" of rain falls when the models showed over an inch. Rain is rain. If 4" of snow fell when 10"+ was forecast, you wouldn't hear the end of it. The models really slowed down the arrival of precip in the couple days leading up, so we'll see lost time can be made up this afternoon and evening as that arc of moderate to heavy echoes move through. My guess is .5-.75" of liquid will be the final tally which is a bit low, but we'll see. Canadian/Euro still have a potential moderate snow event around March 6. GFS is suppressed. I like where we sit with that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 The egg shape of this surface low reminds me some of 2/28/1984, i.e. Leap Day Snowstorm, but the details are not the same. This might be a fun one to look up for you Ohio guys. http://greatlakes.salsite.com/maps/02_28_1984_12z_Surface_Temp_SLP.png http://greatlakes.salsite.com/maps/02_28_1984_12z_500_vort.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 The egg shape of this surface low reminds me some of 2/28/1984, i.e. Leap Day Snowstorm, but the details are not the same. This might be a fun one to look up for you Ohio guys. http://greatlakes.salsite.com/maps/02_28_1984_12z_Surface_Temp_SLP.png http://greatlakes.salsite.com/maps/02_28_1984_12z_500_vort.png 15.7" at CLE for that storm. Definitely a benchmark snow for CLE's record book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 If this had been a snow event, we'd have busted way low with regards to QPF. Most guidance has over an inch for us. We've yet to crack a tenth. I'll be curious how much rain falls in the bucket by morning. It's funny how no one cares if 0.4" of rain falls when the models showed over an inch. Rain is rain. If 4" of snow fell when 10"+ was forecast, you wouldn't hear the end of it. Yeah, general public really pays no attention to rain totals unless it involves some sort of flooding it seems, while snow is a complete different story. On another note, up to about a quarter of an inch of ice cold rain so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Nasty out in Chagrin. Temps in the 30's with strong winds and heavy rain. If this were snow I'd be sweating the dry slot moving northward. I guess that it is one plus to this being rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 27, 2013 Author Share Posted February 27, 2013 CLE at 0.53" rain and BKL at 0.47" rain. We'll see how much can fall overnight, maybe a few tenths, but I'm doubtful we'll get anywhere near the 1.3" - 1.5" that seemed to be model consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Nasty out in Chagrin. Temps in the 30's with strong winds and heavy rain. If this were snow I'd be sweating the dry slot moving northward. I guess that it is one plus to this being rain. Really felt like a late fall day with a soaking rain. Miserable out there. Probably the nastiest weather to be outside in since Hurricane Sandy remnants moved through. Days like today remind me just how much I hate early spring weather in NE Ohio. Wish we could just go from mid march to early May and skip all the cold wet weather. Cold and snowy or cold and dry is one thing, but cold and wet I'm not a fan of. Once this next cold spell has moved through and all the frost lets loose, NE Ohio mud season will be in full force with all this moisture we received Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 27, 2013 Author Share Posted February 27, 2013 The models really slowed down the arrival of precip in the couple days leading up, so we'll see lost time can be made up this afternoon and evening as that arc of moderate to heavy echoes move through. My guess is .5-.75" of liquid will be the final tally which is a bit low, but we'll see. Canadian/Euro still have a potential moderate snow event around March 6. GFS is suppressed. I like where we sit with that one Good guess. CLE at 0.64" and BKL at 0.59" with another shower about to pass in the next hour or two. Definitely on the low side of things. Forecast tonight has 1-3" and then 1-2" tomorrow, I won't hold my breath though. Since New Year's, I've seen less than 10" fall IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Temp has spiked above 40. Funny to look at the regional radar and see snow to the west, east, north and south. The low must be overhead. I could really care less about a few sloppy inches the next few days. Bring on the sun and mild temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 27, 2013 Author Share Posted February 27, 2013 It was actually sunny for a brief moment when I got to work. BKL was at 42. NAM had us peaking at 43-44 around noon and then falling so we might tack on a few degrees. Tonight should whiten things up, but with the sun angle anything less than 2" won't last even with sub freezing temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Good guess. CLE at 0.64" and BKL at 0.59" with another shower about to pass in the next hour or two. Definitely on the low side of things. Forecast tonight has 1-3" and then 1-2" tomorrow, I won't hold my breath though. Since New Year's, I've seen less than 10" fall IMBY. The Euro if I recall correctly was consistently at like .5-.75"...maybe it ticked up near the end, I really don't remember, but it was consistently lower than the NAM/GFS. It's amazing you've seen that little snow since New Year's...ouch. 0z Euro really wound up the system around March 6 and ended up dropping several inches of snow on the back side over eastern Ohio...and showed a MECS if not HECS for the east coast. I still like where we sit with that one for a potential moderate snow event somewhere in the middle portion of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 CLE at 0.53" rain and BKL at 0.47" rain. We'll see how much can fall overnight, maybe a few tenths, but I'm doubtful we'll get anywhere near the 1.3" - 1.5" that seemed to be model consensus. Sharp cutoff to the north. Models did better down in my area as we ended up with 1.1" in Northern Portage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 It's amazing you've seen that little snow since New Year's...ouch. 0z Euro really wound up the system around March 6 and ended up dropping several inches of snow on the back side over eastern Ohio...and showed a MECS if not HECS for the east coast. I still like where we sit with that one for a potential moderate snow event somewhere in the middle portion of next week. Yeah euro really blew that system up over NC/Virginia. Looks like it put down a nice swath of 6"+ in eastern Ohio with close to a foot near the PA line. Hopefully we can get some decent snow with that system because after that it looks like we will be entering a more typical early spring like pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Yeah euro really blew that system up over NC/Virginia. Looks like it put down a nice swath of 6"+ in eastern Ohio with close to a foot near the PA line. Hopefully we can get some decent snow with that system because after that it looks like we will be entering a more typical early spring like pattern. The 12z euro took a step in the wrong direction. I wouldn't hold my breath for anything significant next week. It certainly is an odd storm track. Temps still in the low 40's with rain moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 27, 2013 Author Share Posted February 27, 2013 It will be interesting when we actually switch over to snow. CLE still averages 17" more yet from here until the end of the season. That's quite a bit, but it seems March is either feast or famine. March tends to be thread the needle anyway, so prospects will probably sneak up on us. Good thing is that March storms have juice to work with, so hopefully we can end the season with a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 The 12z euro took a step in the wrong direction. I wouldn't hold my breath for anything significant next week. It certainly is an odd storm track. Temps still in the low 40's with rain moving in. Yeah, looks like it puts out about 1-3" now per the 12z run. Given our luck with synoptic storms this year I would expect nothing less. I'm not ruling out a decent storm at this point but also not getting my hopes up either thats for sure. Going to be a lot of movement on the models in the next few days. It will be interesting when we actually switch over to snow. CLE still averages 17" more yet from here until the end of the season. That's quite a bit, but it seems March is either feast or famine. March tends to be thread the needle anyway, so prospects will probably sneak up on us. Good thing is that March storms have juice to work with, so hopefully we can end the season with a bomb. Just turned to snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 27, 2013 Author Share Posted February 27, 2013 The Euro if I recall correctly was consistently at like .5-.75"...maybe it ticked up near the end, I really don't remember, but it was consistently lower than the NAM/GFS. It's amazing you've seen that little snow since New Year's...ouch. 0z Euro really wound up the system around March 6 and ended up dropping several inches of snow on the back side over eastern Ohio...and showed a MECS if not HECS for the east coast. I still like where we sit with that one for a potential moderate snow event somewhere in the middle portion of next week. Part of the reason is being out of town the first few days in February. But here's my breakdown: 0.4" - Jan 21 2.6" - Jan 22 0.3" - Jan 23 0.4" - Jan 24 1.7" - Jan 25 0.6" - Jan 26 0.6" - Jan 28 0.3" - Feb 8 0.1" - Feb 15 1.8" - Feb 16 0.3" - Feb 19 0.7" - Feb 20 0.1" - Feb 21 0.3" - Feb 17 Just a hair over 10" ... and just inconsequential crap snows. Personally, this winter is hands down the worst of my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Part of the reason is being out of town the first few days in February. But here's my breakdown: 0.4" - Jan 21 2.6" - Jan 22 0.3" - Jan 23 0.4" - Jan 24 1.7" - Jan 25 0.6" - Jan 26 0.6" - Jan 28 0.3" - Feb 8 0.1" - Feb 15 1.8" - Feb 16 0.3" - Feb 19 0.7" - Feb 20 0.1" - Feb 21 0.3" - Feb 17 Just a hair over 10" ... and just inconsequential crap snows. Personally, this winter is hands down the worst of my life. I know you were out of town for some of our better snows but this winter is way better than last winter IMO. Snow cover has been the big difference. Now if we just had one decent synoptic system. Rn/sn mix right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Part of the reason is being out of town the first few days in February. But here's my breakdown: 0.4" - Jan 21 2.6" - Jan 22 0.3" - Jan 23 0.4" - Jan 24 1.7" - Jan 25 0.6" - Jan 26 0.6" - Jan 28 0.3" - Feb 8 0.1" - Feb 15 1.8" - Feb 16 0.3" - Feb 19 0.7" - Feb 20 0.1" - Feb 21 0.3" - Feb 17 Just a hair over 10" ... and just inconsequential crap snows. Personally, this winter is hands down the worst of my life. I've seen almost 10" in SE OH since the middle of January Although granted, I was here everyday. You missed a decent week there in early February for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.