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okie333

OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

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Except the system now kills the Gulf moisture for the next one in the 54 hr period and then the stupid east coast troughing kills the Gulf moisture until the 264 hr period.

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Holy smokes, this put me in a spring mood! There is a silver maple in front of the house starting to bud with these sweet blossoms. This afternoon the tree is swarmed with bees. Fairly loud buzzing. Trying to figure out if these are baby bees or some that are coming out of hibernation? In any case, perhaps prematurely, it feels like "real winter" is over.

post-742-0-97971100-1329687004.jpg

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I have no idea, the models have been terrible this year with large swings. I think we still may get at least another cold blast before Spring arrives but you can't be certain.

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00z GFS is bringing some light wintry precip in with much colder air. Been flip flopping and changing a lot.

usapcpprstmp2m180j.gif

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00z GFS is bringing some light wintry precip in with much colder air. Been flip flopping and changing a lot.

I've kinda stopped looking at the GFS for this system cause I haven't seen two runs alike for it for at least two days :whistle:

It looked like it was dropping something on the West Coast in the 150-156 hr period but really kinda failed to dig substantially and remained broad and less amplified.

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Really wish the models would come to some kind of agreement but I guess that's what you get.

We may get some gusty winds and small hail tonight in parts of the area.

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Maybe the beginning of a trend back towards the big system that it was showing several days ago? Although the ensembles have lost the signal for the bigger amplification for the most part, with most of them showing a boring, rather zonal flow pattern in this time period.

Euro has been very consistent (pretty much has shown the same general solution since it first came into range), while the GFS has been all over the place, but with a generally less amplified pattern.

The good thing is that the resolution change/truncation hasn't changed the solution on the Euro, as it has kept the powerful west coast trough into the 168 hr period.

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...and there's what I mean lol.

But yeah that's a pretty sexy phase right there, still too far north to get any kind of reliable Gulf moisture influence though.

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00z Euro/GFS definitely have different ideas by 144.

990ish low over Colorado on the Euro that moves NE to arrowhead of MN as it drops down to like 980 MB

usaprmslmsl144x.gif

GFS... 1000 MB low over IL/WI

usaprmslmsl144w.gif

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Yeah mostly KS and W MO for now but still a ways out. Things will more than likely change but at least something to look at for now.

Yeah I hope so.

There are still massive model differences going on even in the short range. The Euro has really been bombing lows lately and that will have an impact on the solutions down the line.

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I wish wunderground's Euro wasn't down, but it does look like the 12z Euro has went towards the 12z GFS by a large amount when compared to the Euro from last night.

Euro is a bit colder at 168

usatmp850mb168.gif

than the GFS

usatmp850mb168rx.gif

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18z GFS, there may be precip still ongoing, south of the snow area there is an area of freezing rain over S MO with primarily rain farther south.

Most of the NWS in the area think that the moisture will be lacking and the GFS is overdoing this system. Euro also has a system but from what I read, a lot less precip. The Euro is also farther south with the cold air.

usaasnowi72sfc192h.gif

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So uhh, looks like the GFS changed it's mind, lol

Strengthens a storm system as it passes over us.

usapcpprstmp2m162u.gif

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Wow at the Euro. Looks like it's traded places with the GFS. GFS has support from the Canadian and JMA.

Yeah the Euro has been having some issues lately.

18z GFS is going dramatically colder to the north of here when compared to it's 12z run but it doesn't reach far enough south for us still.

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