Arctic sea ice could completely melt away by the summer of 2015

[The_Global_Warmer]

I would have to disagree this years min volume looks to be 6,000KM at the least but most likely higher.  While the winter pattern also plays a role the odds of going from this year's min to 2012 in a single season is highly unlikely not saying it could never happen but the odds are against it.  You would need 07/12 patterns on steroids to come close.  That's why i suggested a step down process in which it would take more then one season.  I filled in 2014 on this graphic for a better visual you can see most years loose less then 1,000KM from min to min.

piomas graphic.png

 

 

You are probably right.  I misread what you said.

 

I thought you said it would take a couple 2007/12 years in a row.

 

I think if next summer was a carbon copy of 2012 or especially 2007 we would see at least 2nd place behind 2012 on all metrics. Reaching 2012 would probably be pretty tough pending how far the volume max ends up.

 

 

It would probably take back to back really rough years at this point barring a major winter flushing.

[SVT450R]

You are probably right.  I misread what you said.

 

I thought you said it would take a couple 2007/12 years in a row.

 

I think if next summer was a carbon copy of 2012 or especially 2007 we would see at least 2nd place behind 2012 on all metrics. Reaching 2012 would probably be pretty tough pending how far the volume max ends up.

 

 

It would probably take back to back really rough years at this point barring a major winter flushing.

Yea i can agree with that.

[Mallow]

I think we've passed the low point for a long, long time as far as minimum Arctic sea ice is concerned. The Atlantic cold phase (-AMO) should begin around 2020-2025 and persist for 25-30 years, so that brings us to approximately 2050-55. Additionally, the ensuing solar cycles should be much weaker than most/all of the 20th century cycles as we progress into and through the middle of the 21st century. I don't anticipate anthropogenic influences to overcome natural forcings that generally support a cooling trend over the coming decades, and so the Arctic Sea Ice should be fine through at least 2050-55 in my opinion. Will we be free of Arctic ice thereafter? Who knows. Much depends upon how the Sun behaves in the second half of the 21st century and a number of other factors.

 

I think your scenario is extremely unlikely, and entirely unsupported by current research.

[StudentOfClimatology]

I think your scenario is extremely unlikely, and entirely unsupported by current research.

Good news is that we'll likely get the opportunity to test a bunch of these theories over the next 20 years or so.

[Isotherm]

Good news is that we'll likely get the opportunity to test a bunch of these theories over the next 20 years or so.

 

 

Wow, I actually agree.

[skierinvermont]

I wonder what Maslowski has to say now.

 

Or Vergent, or Terry or others insisting that curve fitting was a good method of prediction over using actual physics and understanding of ice dynamics and weather variability. 

 

Attached is the graph so often used in this thread to claim ice free by 2015 or 2020 at the latest. The last three years of data points have been added including an estimate of how this season ends up. 

 

I would like to caption this chart "THE HURRICANE APPEARS LIKELY TO HIT SEATTLE IN FIVE DAYS!!!! RUN FOR YOUR LIVES MOTHA****AS!!!"

[left_gulley]

I would like to caption this chart "THE HURRICANE APPEARS LIKELY TO HIT SEATTLE IN FIVE DAYS!!!! RUN FOR YOUR LIVES MOTHA****AS!!!"

 

Dude, I live in Seattle!

 

[begins running for the Cascades...]

[SVT450R]

I wonder what Maslowski has to say now.

 

Or Vergent, or Terry or others insisting that curve fitting was a good method of prediction over using actual physics and understanding of ice dynamics and weather variability. 

 

Attached is the graph so often used in this thread to claim ice free by 2015 or 2020 at the latest. The last three years of data points have been added including an estimate of how this season ends up. 

 

I would like to caption this chart "THE HURRICANE APPEARS LIKELY TO HIT SEATTLE IN FIVE DAYS!!!! RUN FOR YOUR LIVES MOTHA****AS!!!"

  I love the graphic.

[stadiumwave]

Yeah, but I don't see how the pattern cannot reverse when we got there 2007-2012 with much less CO2/CH4 forcing. Unlike some, I do not put that much stock into natural oscillations. Surely I don't believe they can cause another ice age or slow down the North Atlantic.

 

Granted, there is some effect there. I'm looking at this as temporary. The global temperature bar will also be raised in 2015.

What is your basis for saying this...besides a climate model? And how do you not put much stock in ocean oscillations after looking at the PDO/AMO indexes & the temp trends & say that. Certainly ocean oscillations do not drive it all but they have a tremendous impact on global climate.

[tacoman25]

Hey...we still have a year.

[The_Global_Warmer]

What is your basis for saying this...besides a climate model? And how do you not put much stock in ocean oscillations after looking at the PDO/AMO indexes & the temp trends & say that. Certainly ocean oscillations do not drive it all but they have a tremendous impact on global climate.

 

The majority of melt anywhere in the arctic is from below the ice.  Even favorable ice retention can't stop the rate at which heat is being dumped into the upper latitude oceans and being carried into the arctic under the ice.

 

 

Cold weather at the surface might be able to hold this at bay for a while but it will lose.  It's also very unlikely we won't see multiple winter flushing events and summer torches that will get progressively stronger year after year in the cryosphere.