turtlehurricane Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Round 2 about to begin already? Radar indicates the band along the leftover baroclinic zone is strengthening and about to get here. EDIT: Yup, it's raining. It's inspired the sorority next door to start singing raining men. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 hey turtle over or under 2" here in madison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 i got money on the under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 ORD sounding forecast and 3hr QPF forecast off the LSX WRF for 21z tomorrow, very shallow warm layer, below freezing from about 950mb on up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 hey turtle over or under 2" here in madison Probably under, but it should be the first accumulating snow of the year and that's the key point If it goes over this would become a real winter event, lots of people would be surprised. With a WWA just to the west for 2-4" it isn't that farfetched. Madison is kind of surrounded by that advisory but not in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 9, 2011 Author Share Posted November 9, 2011 Probably under, but it should be the first accumulating snow of the year and that's the key point If it goes over this would become a real winter event, lots of people would be surprised. With a WWA just to the west for 2-4" it isn't that farfetched. Madison is kind of surrounded by that advisory but not in it. It is probably partially due to the UHI effect. I'm sure that has as big an effect as any this early in the winter season when the ground is warm as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 It is probably partially due to the UHI effect. I'm sure that has as big an effect as any this early in the winter season when the ground is warm as it is. Not sure about you, but my zone forecast has a mention of rain/snow mix again for tomorrow. It also has snow showers on Thursday. Surface is going to be extremely warm but perhaps we will get some good cooling in the upper levels, at least W of Milwaukee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 9, 2011 Author Share Posted November 9, 2011 Not sure about you, but my zone forecast has a mention of rain/snow mix again for tomorrow. It also has snow showers on Thursday. Surface is going to be extremely warm but perhaps we will get some good cooling in the upper levels, at least W of Milwaukee. Waukesha's far enough away from the lake and Milwaukee that the early season mitigating effects against cooling are less of a factor. I think there's a very good chance you see a few snow showers on the back side. The 0z NAM just plasters SW Wisconsin, this thing keeps creeping closer to giving us accumulating snow. May not happen, but what snow does fall probably will hang around for a night with lows in the upper 20s tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Waukesha's far enough away from the lake and Milwaukee that the early season mitigating effects against cooling are less of a factor. I think there's a very good chance you see a few snow showers on the back side. The 0z NAM just plasters SW Wisconsin, this thing keeps creeping closer to giving us accumulating snow. May not happen, but what snow does fall probably will hang around for a night with lows in the upper 20s tomorrow night. The winds aren't going to be coming straight of the lake when the changeover happens though so that should help a bit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 So close for Madison to moneyman.. Lotta peeping outside if I lived there awaiting a hopefully quick changeover. What looked to be a possible 4-8"+ up north on the hunting grounds has changed to zero qpf on the NAM lol.. I'd be more pissed off up there than down here in the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 9, 2011 Author Share Posted November 9, 2011 So close for Madison to moneyman.. Lotta peeping outside if I lived there awaiting a hopefully quick changeover. What looked to be a possible 4-8"+ up north on the hunting grounds has changed to zero qpf on the NAM lol.. I'd be more pissed off up there than down here in the rain. I don't think we're going to get much more rain, or any snow. Do you think there is like a dry air bubble over Milwaukee, b/c it kinda seems that way. I swear any time heavy rain comes in towards Milwaukee, it lightens up as it approaches. I can't think of what else it must be other than dry air. The exception was the late September upper level low that sat and spun. This looks like more of the same. Rain that is supposed to come from the SW is nowhere to be found atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Man this is looking pretty good now for the Ottumwa/CR/Dubuque to near or west/northwest of Madison now. Definitely a lot better than what I saw before I left for work early this morning lol. Looks like a narrow swath of 4"+ somewhere in there. The deformation zone advertised on the new NAM is sick for eastern Iowa into Wisconsin tomorrow morning. Might even get a few flakes here the way it looks now. Hey Hawkeye it looks like the RGEM had the right idea a few days ago lmao! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Snow is underway at a few sites in SW IA. Here we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 I don't think we're going to get much more rain, or any snow. Do you think there is like a dry air bubble over Milwaukee, b/c it kinda seems that way. I swear any time heavy rain comes in towards Milwaukee, it lightens up as it approaches. I can't think of what else it must be other than dry air. The exception was the late September upper level low that sat and spun. This looks like more of the same. Rain that is supposed to come from the SW is nowhere to be found atm. not expecting a whole lot tonight. tomorrow morning in to early afternoon prob our best rains and then watch the d-slut work us over probably.. not really the greatest track for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Latest SREF is still updating, and only out to noon tomorrow, but it has a little more snow in the deformation band compared to the previous two runs. Also a slight nudge southeast each run the past 3 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 DBQ gets absolutely plastered on the 0z NAM, switching over to all snow by 15z and has a good 6hr+ period of +SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 9, 2011 Author Share Posted November 9, 2011 not expecting a whole lot tonight. tomorrow morning in to early afternoon prob our best rains and then watch the d-slut work us over probably.. not really the greatest track for us. You're right, it's amazing how slow this system has trended in the last 24 hours. Last night, I was thinking everything would be over by tomorrow morning, but the system appears to be crawling, considering the precip will be with us (or nearby) much of the day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 DBQ gets absolutely plastered on the 0z NAM, switching over to all snow by 15z and has a good 6hr+ period of +SN Delicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Delicious. the new hotness That run drops 6" just west of DBQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Wow, and the HRRR is known for being the best short term model. Snow has spread into central IA as of 9 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Snow has spread into central IA as of 9 pm KCSQ 090255Z AUTO 02018G26KT 2 1/2SM -SN OVC006 01/M01 A2996 RMK AO2 VIS 1 3/4V4 P0009 0z NAM 4mb stronger with the sfc low at 18z tomorrow vs the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 the new hotness That run drops 6" just west of DBQ With a deformation band like that there should be at least a narrow band of heavy accumulations somewhere. I'm really liking the Cedar Rapids to Manchester to Lancaster WI for the best shot at 6"+. Sort of a close call for the QC, but I'll be more than happy just to see the first few flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 With a deformation band like that there should be at least a narrow band of heavy accumulations somewhere. I'm really liking the Cedar Rapids to Manchester to Lancaster WI for the best shot at 6"+. Sort of a close call for the QC, but I'll be more than happy just to see the first few flakes. I think you will see plenty more than that tomorrow don't know about it amounting to much but you will most likely see snow I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 I think you will see plenty more than that tomorrow don't know about it amounting to much but you will most likely see snow I think. I'm anxious to see Skilling's RPM model in a bit. I watched him at noon yesterday and it showed a much further east/stronger deformation zone much like what the latest models are showing. Looked like an outlier at the time, but it looks like it was the first model to latch on to this. Tonight's run should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Impressive CCB tomorrow morning. 50kts just off the surface. Noice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 927 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011 ...ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.... STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL HEAD NORTHEAST FROM MISSOURITONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...TRACKING INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS TONIGHTAND INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.WHILE MUCH OF THIS EVENT WILL OCCUR AS RAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLYWEDNESDAY...AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN A CORRIDOR FROMDUBUQUE THROUGH THE DELLS TO PLAINFIELD WILL LIKELY SEE ACHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAYMORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO AS MUCH AS 6 INCHES OF SNOW.WIZ047-063-068-091130-/O.EXB.KMKX.WW.Y.0014.111109T1200Z-111109T2100Z/GREEN LAKE-DANE-GREEN-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BERLIN...MADISON...MONROE927 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM CSTWEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED AWINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AMTO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY.* TIMING...EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES.* WINDS...NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH SHIFTING NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND GUSTING TO 30 MPH.* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 I'm anxious to see Skilling's RPM model in a bit. I watched him at noon yesterday and it showed a much further east/stronger deformation zone much like what the latest models are showing. Looked like an outlier at the time, but it looks like it was the first model to latch on to this. Tonight's run should be interesting. Just watched, shows both of us getting some snow and then some flurries tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 La Crosse AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 940 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011 SHORT TERM 939 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011 THIS ONE IS TOUGH STUFF. STRUGGLING WITH A WEATHER SYSTEM THAT HAS NEARLY 250 PERCENT NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOLDING NEAR 40 AND WET- BULB TEMPERATURES NOT FAR BEHIND...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINED TODAY. THIS MAY BE THE MOST IMPORTANT AREA...FROM NEAR KDBQ TO KISW...AS DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS TO IMPACT THIS AXIS MOST. THE QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THE THERMAL PROFILE ALLOW FOR SNOW. FOR THE MOST PART...HAVE CONTINUED THE THEME OF THE FORECAST WITH CHANGE OVER BY SUNRISE. SOME AREAS WILL ACCUMULATE BEFORE THAT...MAINLY ON RIDGES. FROM DMX FORECAST AREA...IT APPEARS ONLY THE VERY INTENSE PRECIPITATION RATES CHANGE OVER TO A MIX...OR INTO COOLING COLUMN SOUTH OF I-80. HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA TO DRASTICALLY REDUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH EASTERN TRACK TO LOW. THUS...HAVE TIGHTENED THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IN THE FORECAST GRIDS MUCH LIKE IS SEEN ON THE KDMX RADAR WITH A VERY SHARP DEFORMATION EDGE TO THE NWRN PORTION OF THE RA/SN BAND. HAVE ALSO MADE CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY...WHICH INCLUDES REMOVING TAYLOR COUNTY WI AND FLOYD COUNTY IA. THESE AREAS WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF SNOWFALL WITH MAINLY LOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED. CONSIDERED REMOVING WESTERN EDGE COUNTIES FROM CLARK WI TO CHICKASAW IA BUT AM GOING TO ERROR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION. A BIT CONCERNED THE NWRN MOST EXDGE WILL HAVE THE STRONGEST DEFORMATION AND INTENSITY TO PRECIPITATION WHICH MAY DRIVE ACCUMULATIONS UP. WOULD THINK THIS BAND OF COUNTIES SHOULD SEE 1-2 INCHES...BUT BECAUSE OF WATER AVAILABLE AND UP SIDE...LEFT THEM IN ADVISORY. 09.00Z NAM REALLY HITTING THE KDBQ-KISW AXIS HARD WITH 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION PER INTERNAL MODEL SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS ACCOUNTS FOR MELTING TOO. HAVE INCREASED GRANT COUNTY A BIT TO 3-4 INCH RANGE. 09.00Z NAM ALSO A SMIDGE FURTHER WEST WITH LOW TRACK...MUCH LIKE 09.00Z RUC. Green Bay AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 940 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011 UPDATE PCPN QUICKLY REDEVELOPING ALONG THE H8 BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER EC WI THIS EVG. WV IMAGERY SHOWED AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP FROM KANSAS NEWD INTO CENTRAL IA. ENHANCED SOUTHERN EDGE EXTRAPOLATES INTO C/NE WI...WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. EARLY EVG TRENDS SUGGESTED THAT THE SFC LOW WAS TRACKING WEST OF THE MODELS...WHICH ACCORDING TO OUR LOCAL WINTER WEATHER EXPERTS...IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GEM AND HI-RES WRF-ARW EAST WERE DOING THE BEST WITH THE WESTERN TRACK...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z NAM CAME IN WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION. A FARTHER WESTERN TRACK KEEPS SIGNIFICANT QPF IN OUR FAR NW CWA...AT LEAST IN THE EAST PORTIONS OF VILAS/ ONEIDA/LINCOLN COUNTIES...SO NO PLANS TO REMOVE HEADLINES THERE. DID OPT TO DELAY THE START TIME UNTIL 12Z IN THOSE COUNTIES...THOUGH. A WESTERN TRACK ALSO KEEPS THE WARM AIR IN THE FOX VALLEY AND LKSHR AREAS LONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE HEAVY SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW IN WESTERN OUTAGAMIE/WINNEBAGO COUNTIES... BUT THAT IS A DETAIL THAT I WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WRESTLE WITH. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS A NEED TO EXPAND THE WARNING FARTHER SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPS STILL IN THE LOWER 40S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SE OF A SHAWANO TO WISCONSIN RAPIDS LINE...THINK THERE MAY STILL BE A MIX OVER MUCH OF THAT AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TOTALS BLO WARNING CRITERIA. MID SHIFT CAN ALSO TAKE A LOOK AT THIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Jesus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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