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PHL hourly ob "rule of thumb" for 100+: 89 by 10AM, 94 by noon, 98 by 2PM

famartin

By famartin,
in Philadelphia Region

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

Broken off from the obs thread, in response to Thunder Road:

Well, we can look back in time.. here's all the 100-degree days since 1981:

7/7/2010: High 103, noon reading 99, 2PM reading 100

7/6/2010: High 102, noon reading 98, 2PM reading 100

8/9/2001: High 101, noon reading 95, 2PM reading 100

8/8/2001: High 100, noon reading 93, 2PM reading 96

7/5/1999: High 100, noon reading 95, 2PM reading 98

7/15/1995: High 103, noon reading 98, 2PM reading 101

6/19/1994: High 100, noon reading 96, 2PM reading 98

6/15/1994: High 100, noon reading 95, 2PM reading 98

7/10/1993: High 101, noon reading 97, 2PM reading 99

7/9/1993: High 100, noon reading 95, 2PM reading 99

7/8/1993: High 100, noon reading 95, 2PM reading 99

6/16/1991: High 100, noon reading 95, 2PM reading 97

7/17/1988: High 102, noon reading 95, 2PM reading 101

7/16/1988: High 102, noon reading 95, 2PM reading 99

7/11/1988: High 100, noon reading 93, 2PM reading 97

7/10/1988: High 100, noon reading 90, 2PM reading 95

6/22/1988: High 100, noon reading 96, 2PM reading 99

Adjusting those days which were above 100 down to 100, it would seem the rule of thumb is as follows:

If PHL hits 94 by noon, there's a reasonable chance of 100. If PHL hits 98 at 2PM, there's a reasonable chance of 100.

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famartin

famartin

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How about 90 at 10? How often on the 100+ days of latE?

I was wondering if anyone would ask that...

7/7/2010: High 103, 10AM reading 95

7/6/2010: High 102, 10AM reading 93

8/9/2001: High 101, 10AM reading 87

8/8/2001: High 100, 10AM reading 90

7/5/1999: High 100, 10AM reading 91

7/15/1995: High 103, 10AM reading 91

6/19/1994: High 100, 10AM reading 90

6/15/1994: High 100, 10AM reading 88

7/10/1993: High 101, 10AM reading 93

7/9/1993: High 100, 10AM reading 92

7/8/1993: High 100, 10AM reading 92

6/16/1991: High 100, 10AM reading 89

7/17/1988: High 102, 10AM reading 88

7/16/1988: High 102, 10AM reading 87

7/11/1988: High 100, 10AM reading 88

7/10/1988: High 100, 10AM reading 82

6/22/1988: High 100, 10AM reading 89

Adjusting for highs above 100 and averaging we come to 89.

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famartin

famartin

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7/10/1988 seems to throw a wrench in the averages... it might be better (and easier to remember) to just add a degree to the 10AM and noon readings and forget about 2PM... so as a rule of thumb, to get to 100 at PHL, it needs to reach 90 by 10AM and 95 by noon.

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famartin

famartin

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Be interesting to see the hrs back in 1966:

7/2 - 100 after a low of 63

7/3 - 104 after a low of 68

7/4 - 103 after a low of 72

pretty impressive to drop back to 68 the morning after triple digits, dry heat & a bone dry June preceeding the heat did the trick

Area around the airport was a bit less developed back then. Last summer TTN went from 64 on the morning of 7/4 to 99 on the afternoon of 7/4 to 68 on the morning of 7/5.

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Analog96

Analog96

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I was wondering if anyone would ask that...

7/7/2010: High 103, 10AM reading 95

7/6/2010: High 102, 10AM reading 93

8/9/2001: High 101, 10AM reading 87

8/8/2001: High 100, 10AM reading 90

7/5/1999: High 100, 10AM reading 91

7/15/1995: High 103, 10AM reading 91

6/19/1994: High 100, 10AM reading 90

6/15/1994: High 100, 10AM reading 88

7/10/1993: High 101, 10AM reading 93

7/9/1993: High 100, 10AM reading 92

7/8/1993: High 100, 10AM reading 92

6/16/1991: High 100, 10AM reading 89

7/17/1988: High 102, 10AM reading 88

7/16/1988: High 102, 10AM reading 87

7/11/1988: High 100, 10AM reading 88

7/10/1988: High 100, 10AM reading 82

6/22/1988: High 100, 10AM reading 89

Adjusting for highs above 100 and averaging we come to 89.

I always use 90 at 10 AM and 93 at 11 AM. Normally, if you're 90 at 10, like you said, you have a good chance at 100.

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famartin

famartin

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Be interesting to see the hrs back in 1966:

7/2 - 100 after a low of 63

7/3 - 104 after a low of 68

7/4 - 103 after a low of 72

pretty impressive to drop back to 68 the morning after triple digits, dry heat & a bone dry June preceeding the heat did the trick

Here are these numbers:

7/2: 84, 94, 97

7/3: 92, 98, 100

7/4: 89, 96, 101

Adjusting and averaging you get 86 at 10AM, 94 at noon, 97 at 2PM.

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ezweather

ezweather

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Had to post this.. At 1:21pm, here in Voorhees, my weather station showed a dewpoint of 81 degrees with a heat indeix of 123 degrees. The dewpooint even peaked at 82 at 11:33am. Stil at this hour, dewpoint continues to hover about 120 outside. Temperature up to 95.

http://www.weatherlink.com/user/ezweather/index.php?view=main&headers=1

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Parsley

Parsley

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Had to post this.. At 1:21pm, here in Voorhees, my weather station showed a dewpoint of 81 degrees with a heat indeix of 123 degrees. The dewpooint even peaked at 82 at 11:33am. Stil at this hour, dewpoint continues to hover about 120 outside. Temperature up to 95.

http://www.weatherli...=main&headers=1

Putrid, in an exciting sort of way.

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famartin

famartin

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Had to post this.. At 1:21pm, here in Voorhees, my weather station showed a dewpoint of 81 degrees with a heat indeix of 123 degrees. The dewpooint even peaked at 82 at 11:33am. Stil at this hour, dewpoint continues to hover about 120 outside. Temperature up to 95.

http://www.weatherli...=main&headers=1

All the airports around the area (save the bogus Coatesville AWOS) are showing dewpoints in the mid 70s, a handful into the upper 70s. I think some of the personal weather stations are having trouble with dewpoints right now.

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ezweather

ezweather

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For whatever its worth.. Mine is a Davis Advantage Pro. Be curious how many other stations maybe reporting what I'm seeing.. Probably check that later today. Just surprised how high that dewpoint its reading..

Either way, it is dangerously hot out there now..

All the airports around the area (save the bogus Coatesville AWOS) are showing dewpoints in the mid 70s, a handful into the upper 70s. I think some of the personal weather stations are having trouble with dewpoints right now.

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famartin

famartin

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For whatever its worth.. Mine is a Davis Advantage Pro. Be curious how many other stations maybe reporting what I'm seeing.. Probably check that later today. Just surprised how high that dewpoint its reading..

Either way, it is dangerously hot out there now..

Here's the 2PM dewpoints around Philly

PHL 74

PNE 74

LOM 72

VAY 76

ILG 78

PTW 71

DYL 70

MQS 84

WRI 75

TTN 73

MIV 78

UKT 70

ACY 75

NEL 70

XLL 72

MJX 75

RDG 69

DOV 77

ABE 69

APG 73

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Isotherm

Isotherm

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Here's the 2PM dewpoints around Philly

PHL 74

PNE 74

LOM 72

VAY 76

ILG 78

PTW 71

DYL 70

MQS 84

WRI 75

TTN 73

MIV 78

UKT 70

ACY 75

NEL 70

XLL 72

MJX 75

RDG 69

DOV 77

ABE 69

APG 73

My DVP2 recorded a dew point high of 81F, which is pretty close to reality I'd say, given most stations around here have been upper 70s/80. I think this is the highest I recall seeing dews (78-80 for much the day). Dew point is down to 77 now.

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ezweather

ezweather

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Just checking my station.. at this hour dewpoint is 81 with heat index of 121 degrees.. Just brutal out there..

My DVP2 recorded a dew point high of 81F, which is pretty close to reality I'd say, given most stations around here have been upper 70s/80. I think this is the highest I recall seeing dews (78-80 for much the day). Dew point is down to 77 now.

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famartin

famartin

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My DVP2 recorded a dew point high of 81F, which is pretty close to reality I'd say, given most stations around here have been upper 70s/80. I think this is the highest I recall seeing dews (78-80 for much the day). Dew point is down to 77 now.

4PM dewpoints in Jersey:

FWN 71

12N 68

MMU 68

CDW 71

TEB 70

EWR 70

SMQ 69

TTN 71

BLM 73

WRI 77

VAY 77

NEL 70

MJX 72

ACY 74

MIV 77

WWD 77

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yak

yak

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Some 10 a.m. observations for comparison:

Heat indexes already running 105-110+ at mid morning.

BOS 91/75 HI 104

HFD 96/73 HI 106

JFK 95/75 HI 107

EWR 98/74 HI 109

TTN 96/76 HI 109

PHL 94/76 HI 107

RDG 95/77 HI 110

MDT 92/76 HI 104

ILG 93/80 HI 112

BWI 96/76 HI 111

DCA 91/77 HI 110

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yak

yak

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Any predictions based on the above 10 a.m. readings? 98 at Newark and 110+ heat index readings at 10 a.m. Seriously?

I have to think that we are headed for one of the most uncomfortable days in East Coast history if not one of the hottest.

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