Indystorm Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Good timing on your comments... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS... SOUTHEASTERN DE KALB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS... SOUTHERN KANE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS... NORTHERN KENDALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS... SOUTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS... NORTHEASTERN LA SALLE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 315 PM CDT * AT 215 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SOMONAUK...OR NEAR SANDWICH...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... LITTLE ROCK...PLANO AND HINCKLEY AROUND 225 PM CDT. SUGAR GROVE AROUND 230 PM CDT. MONTGOMERY AROUND 235 PM CDT. NORTH AURORA...BATAVIA AND AURORA AROUND 240 PM CDT. WEST CHICAGO...GENEVA...DUPAGE AIRPORT AND WARRENVILLE AROUND 245 PM CDT. CAROL STREAM...WINFIELD AND WHEATON AROUND 250 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE BOULDER HILL...BLOOMINGDALE...GLENDALE HEIGHTS...LINCOLNWOOD AND GOLF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 There could also be the potential for the storms that form in MI/IL/WI/IN/OH to develop into a forward propagating MCS/derecho. SPC also mentioned the possiblity of this happening in their last update, saying they may have to upgrade the outlook in northern NY. Again, a last minute possibility. Cool if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Good timing on your comments... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS... SOUTHEASTERN DE KALB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS... SOUTHERN KANE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS... NORTHERN KENDALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS... SOUTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS... NORTHEASTERN LA SALLE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 315 PM CDT * AT 215 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SOMONAUK...OR NEAR SANDWICH...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... LITTLE ROCK...PLANO AND HINCKLEY AROUND 225 PM CDT. SUGAR GROVE AROUND 230 PM CDT. MONTGOMERY AROUND 235 PM CDT. NORTH AURORA...BATAVIA AND AURORA AROUND 240 PM CDT. WEST CHICAGO...GENEVA...DUPAGE AIRPORT AND WARRENVILLE AROUND 245 PM CDT. CAROL STREAM...WINFIELD AND WHEATON AROUND 250 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE BOULDER HILL...BLOOMINGDALE...GLENDALE HEIGHTS...LINCOLNWOOD AND GOLF. That cell will past not too far north of me, should give decent photo ops once over the lake, IF i can get home in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 408 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 335 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS NORTHERN INDIANA CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN NORTHWEST OHIO LAKE ERIE LAKE HURON LAKE MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 335 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT. HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF SAGINAW MICHIGAN TO 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHAMPAIGN ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 407... DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER IL. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...WHILE A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUGGESTS A RISK OF LARGE HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 Brilliant! I knew we would get passed again. So much for our last two slight risks. We probably won't even get a thunderstorm this time, two cells likely to pass off to our northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 RUC looks impressive for central MI (fizzles out for SEMI though) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 skies darkening rapidly west of downtown, probably a good sign that cells to the west are strengthening at a good clip. EDIT: watch the cell south of the warned cell, heading more or less for the loop or just north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Buh bye moderate risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 But hatching added... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 i've given up trying to make it home, closing in too fast and obv getting dark in a hurry. Looks like i'll take a direct hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Say bye-bye to the moderate risk, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 good write up from dtx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 355 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011 SHORT TERM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THE FOCUS OF THIS FCST PCKG REVOLVES AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A 500MB RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG REGION OF UPPER RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE SE CONUS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS HAVE BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ITS WAKE AS AHEAD OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR A ZONE OF STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT OVER AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITHIN THIS AXIS OF ASCENT IN THE EARLY/MID AFTN...MOST LIKELY FROM WESTERN MICHIGAN SOUTHWARD INTO NW INDIANA. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS CONVECTION PROPAGATES INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. BULK SHEAR IN THE PRECONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 30-40 KTS...MAINLY CONTAINED WITHIN THE LOWEST 3KM. GIVEN THE LARGELY UNIDRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES COURTESY OF A 90KT H5 JET MAX WILL THAT WILL BE IMPINGING ON THE AREA FROM THE WEST...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR CONVECTION TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A QLCS WITH WITH HEALTHY SYNOPTICALLY ENHANCED REAR INFLOW JETS AND EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. IN ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG DURATION UPDRAFTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE...HIGH CAPE DENSITY...AND THE HAIL GROWTH LAYER CENTERED WITHIN THE REGION OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY SUPPORT THE GENERATION OF HAIL GREATER THAN ONE INCH...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AREAS. SHORT-LIVED/ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITHIN BOWING SEGMENTS OR IN ASSOCIATION WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT IS FAR FROM PRESTINE THIS AFTERNOON AND THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT COMPLICATING FACTORS THAT MAY ULTIMATELY ALTER OR UNDERMINE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OF THIS ENVIRONMENT. FIRST AND FOREMOST IS LAST NIGHT'S CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND ASSOCIATED WARMING ALOFT WHICH HAS PREVENTED UPSTREAM INITIATION UNDERNEATH THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING. IN ADDITION...THE 18Z DTX SOUNDING INDICATES THAT A FAIRLY DEEP CAP IN PLACE OVER SE LOWER MICHIGAN WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AT LEAST LATER THIS EVENING AS A PLUME OF WARMER AIR ALOFT SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP WAS EVIDENT EARLIER THIS AFTN WITH CONVECTION ALONG A REMNANT BOUNDARY IN THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN THAT QUICKLY COLLAPSED. FINALLY...IF CONVECTION DOES UNFOLD ROUGHLY AS ANTICIPATED...THERE IS QUESTION REGARDING THE DURATION OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT. WITH THERMAL PROFILES ON THE DRY SIDE...THE ADDED EVAPORATIVE EFFECTS WOULD ONLY ENHANCE COLD POOL STRENGTH. DURING PEAK INSTABILITY...THIS COULD CERTAINTLY INCREASE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT. ON THE OTHER HAND...AS INSTABILITY WANES THE COLD POOL WOULD BE APT TO OUTRUN THE SYSTEM MORE QUICKLY. THUS...ENVIRONMENTAL SIGNS MAY BE POINTING TOWARD A RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED INITIAL /SIGNIFICANT/ SEVERE THREAT WITH A CONTINUING BUT LESSER SVR THREAT THEREAFTER. HOWEVER...THE DURATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON BOTH TIMING AND INITIAL CONVECTIVE TRENDS WHICH WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 good write up from dtx Nervous...if worse comes to worse I could intercept if it looks like I'll be missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Nervous...if worse comes to worse I could intercept if it looks like I'll be missed. Far from a sure thing that SEMI will get widespread severe tonight...but its not out of the question. As far as I'm concerned its anyone's guess as to what goes down this evening. The RUC has been back and forth and the HRRR has just had its head up its ass for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 instability on the decline in SEMI per the latest mesoanalysis... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 A few storms are starting to fire: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Storm did little to relieve heat and humidity, still waiting on front passage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Interesting.... They getting sheared off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 4:49 PM EDT TUESDAY 31 MAY 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR: =NEW= WINDSOR - ESSEX COUNTY - CITY OF CHATHAM-KENT =NEW= SARNIA - LAMBTON COUNTY =NEW= ELGIN COUNTY =NEW= LONDON - MIDDLESEX COUNTY =NEW= WOODSTOCK - TILLSONBURG - OXFORD COUNTY =NEW= HURON COUNTY - PERTH COUNTY =NEW= KITCHENER - CAMBRIDGE - REGION OF WATERLOO =NEW= MOUNT FOREST - ARTHUR - NORTHERN WELLINGTON COUNTY =NEW= GREY COUNTY - BRUCE COUNTY. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVOURABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS EXCEEDING 100 KM/H AND LARGE HAIL ASSOCIATED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Latest HRRR and RUC are in agreement with the line of storms coming through central MI, and then the southern part disappearing as it moves eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 A cell just went up in NW Indiana and it prompted a severe t'storm warning. It's headed for South Bend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Yeah, getting dark to my northwest. It's almost like the cool Lake Michigan water stabilized lower layers a bit and now instability is ramping up east of the pond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Yeah, getting dark to my northwest. It's almost like the cool Lake Michigan water stabilized lower layers a bit and now instability is ramping up east of the pond. i think as soon as the front/forcing reaches the unstable air in lower mich storms should fire rapidly and become widespread. We shall see very soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 i think as soon as the front/forcing reaches the unstable air in lower mich storms should fire rapidly and become widespread. We shall see very soon We would probably see more development than we have now if it wasn't for that veil of cirrostratus clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Things are slowly coming together now. Severe T'Storm warning just went out for the storm in NW Lower Michigan. The one north of Grand Rapids may get a warning soon as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 We would probably see more development than we have now if it wasn't for that veil of cirrostratus clouds. i don't think thats making any impact, the sun was out all day around the state, its as unstable as its gonna get, its just waiting on the cold front to trigger something. thats what has been really lacking so far, a trigger and also the cooler mid level temp to help ease the cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Will probably remain mainly a GRR event, with an isolated threat in the northern CWA of DTX. Until we get initiation somewhere along the IN/OH border, Wayne/Monroe will likely miss out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 MI radar is starting to look nice with discrete cells at present throughout the lower peninsula. Things will probably be north of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 MI radar is starting to look nice with discrete cells at present throughout the lower peninsula. Things will probably be north of me. Yeah for sure. If I get missed, it'll be barely to the north, in which case I'd just go intercept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 554 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN ANTRIM COUNTY IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... BENZIE COUNTY IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... GRAND TRAVERSE COUNTY IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... NORTHWESTERN KALKASKA COUNTY IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... SOUTHERN LEELANAU COUNTY IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... NORTHEASTERN MANISTEE COUNTY IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... NORTHWESTERN WEXFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... * UNTIL 700 PM EDT * AT 548 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KARLIN...OR 6 MILES EAST OF THOMPSONVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 90 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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