12z Models 12/01/10

[ag3]

12z NAM:

ETA:

[ag3]

12z NAM:

[tombo82685]

i just posted this in the pa obs. But look at this 500 mb chart, this looks pretty much like the 0z euro last night. Look at how much the shortwave is digging and trying to go negative

[MJO812]

The RH field looks pretty healthy.

[CooL]

the nam continues to show a deeper and stronger shortwave, like the euro. the trough is also going negative at 84 hrs. this would imply a storm off the coast but its all about the timing of the phase.

[ag3]

the nam continues to show a deeper and stronger shortwave, like the euro. the trough is also going negative at 84 hrs. this would imply a storm off the coast but its all about the timing of the phase.

Doesnt have to be a big storm off the coast. I'm sure all of us would be happy with a strong clipper that drops 1"-3" areawide.

[tombo82685]

no support at all from the sref, but again they are horrible, well the nam is pretty horrible at this range to. Lets just see what happens for the 12z suite. We need that shortwave to continue to trend stronger.

[CooL]

well yeah, but the upper level setup would imply a significant storm off the coast imo but whether that would be too far east is up for grabs at this point.

[ag3]

no support at all from the sref, but again they are horrible, well the nam is pretty horrible at this range to. Lets just see what happens for the 12z suite. We need that shortwave to continue to trend stronger.

Has support from an even worse model, the ETA. LOL.

[MJO812]

This run is a little more north and more potent than the 6z run. If this run went out further, this storm would be a close miss to the area.

[Herb@MAWS]

From HPC 12/1 9am disco:

THE OTHER SYS WITH WHICH THE MODELS SHOW CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT

AND LARGE DAY-TO-DAY AND RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY CHANGES IS A

SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES

THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS BACK ON BOARD WITH ITS CLOSED

MID-LEVEL CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH VIRGINIA...THOUGH IT IS WEAKER

THAN SEEN ON OCCASIONAL RUNS FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS.

HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE LEADING TO THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE SHEARING

OUT THROUGH THE REGION...NOT CLOSING OFF. A 00Z GFS/00Z CANADIAN

SOLUTION SHOULD WORK OUT BEST HERE. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH

THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH ITS LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

[CooL]

This run is a little more north and more potent than the 6z run. If this run went out further, this storm would be a close miss to the area.

u talking about the s/w itself or the potential coastal? the upper level setup on the nam looks promising if you extrap for atleast NE to get involved in the coastal, the trough tries to go neg. at 84 hrs

[MJO812]

u talking about the s/w itself or the potential coastal? the upper level setup on the nam looks promising if you extrap for atleast NE to get involved in the coastal, the trough tries to go neg. at 84 hrs

I'm talking about the shortwave.

[tombo82685]

This run is a little more north and more potent than the 6z run. If this run went out further, this storm would be a close miss to the area.

this would be a phl to dc hit here, nyc may get grazed, by the clipper, not sure with the coastal

[jrodd321]

Yea tom, extrapolated I think we'd get a nice hit on this run.

[nynjpaweather]

To me what stands out with the NAM is the trend towards the ECMWF. On it's own, I wouldn't put much weight on the NAM, but with a developing idea of a strong presence off the DE coast, the idea of light snow I've been advertising for S NJ is gaining support. The 12Z ECMWF is going to be an interesting run for this weekend.

[tombo82685]

hr 57 gfs so far stronger with the shortwve, 1008 low in eastern col

[tombo82685]

out to hr 66, def stronger with the shortwave so far, looks like its digging a little better to, you can see it on the back side of the low

[tombo82685]

hr 72, low is further north centered over st louis

[earthlight]

no support at all from the sref, but again they are horrible, well the nam is pretty horrible at this range to. Lets just see what happens for the 12z suite. We need that shortwave to continue to trend stronger.

It actually does have support from some SREF members. DT and I were discussing last night on the radio show how the SREF was way more robust with the shortwave entering the CONUS and into the OH Valley.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREF21500US_9z/f66.gif

[tombo82685]

It actually does have support from some SREF members. DT and I were discussing last night on the radio show how the SREF was way more robust with the shortwave entering the CONUS and into the OH Valley.

http://www.meteo.psu...00US_9z/f66.gif

i was merely looking at the precvip field which majority were not as robust as nam

[earthlight]

Yea tom, extrapolated I think we'd get a nice hit on this run.

The ULL is still too close. The 6z DGEX had a very similar solution so it's a good extrapolation and you can see how the ULL crushes the development of anything too far north. A nice trend for the Mid Atlantic though.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_6z/f102.gif

[earthlight]

i was merely looking at the precvip field which majority were not as robust as nam

Gotcha

[tombo82685]

12z gfs still slides out over eastern nc, but in my eyes it deff looked like it trended better.

[Sundog]

I love how in a strong La Nina year the place that still has the best shot at some snow is the Mid Atlantic. It's like the block from hell from last winter never left.

[MJO812]

Time to get your hats and gloves ready.

[tombo82685]

Time to get your hats and gloves ready.

if we had snow on the ground it would be even worse.

[tombo82685]

that vortex is just overwhelming the pattern in the northeast.

[MJO812]

that vortex is just overwhelming the pattern in the northeast.

Highs in the 30's and lows in the 20's for next week.

[jrodd321]

00z

12z

Definitely digging more this run, and looks more relaxed up in Maine. Good trends IMO. Anyone else agree?