IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 GEFS mean is wetter than the GFS op. Has a pocket of at least 1" 24hr accumulated QPF just west of NYC at hr 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 KPOU to KALB would be a major hit with this run.. looks like 6 inches easily I just might take down my christmas decorations that were burried in snow since January before this next event comes in. They were finaly uncovered last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I just might take down my christmas decorations that were burried in snow since January before this next event comes in. They were finaly uncovered last week. lol ... yea, I hear ya'.. might be a good opportunity to do that... I think the last thing I want to deal with is a heavy, wet snow.. I have a horrible snow blower and I'll end up having to shovel a pile of slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 227 PM EST THU MAR 03 2011 VALID 12Z SUN MAR 06 2011 - 12Z THU MAR 10 2011 SOME DETAILS HAVE CHANGED OVER THE PAST DAY BUT OVERALL THERE IS GOOD CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FCST TO PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. BETTER THAN AVERAGE CLUSTERING OF GUIDANCE WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES FAVORS MAINTAINING A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLNS. EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...A WAVY SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING A THREAT OF EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NORTHEAST...WITH SNOW POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY...APPALACHIANS...AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE ALREADY MEANINGFUL DIFFS IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE SHORT RANGE TIME FRAME WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THESE DIFFS CONTINUE INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE 00Z ECMWF IS WELL NWD OF THE 00Z GFS WITH THE PRIMARY WAVE THAT AFFECTS THE NORTHEAST SUN-MON BUT BOTH MODELS ARE WITHIN THE BROAD ENVELOPE OF POTENTIAL MODEL/ENSEMBLE SOLNS. THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH...OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH WOULD PROLONG PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ON DAY 3/SUNDAY. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE ANOTHER DAY OR SO TO RESOLVE IMPORTANT SMALLER SCALE DETAILS ALOFT SO A GENERAL COMPROMISE APPEARS TO BE THE BEST OPTION UNTIL BETTER CLUSTERING DEVELOPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 The rivers have had a few days to fall and are now only slightly above normal. I'm beginning to think that even with a 2.5" rain we should avoid anything more than minor flooding. Although, If the lower hudson Valley and NW NJ manage to get a decent snowpack back, and the cutoff low materializes next week we could have some major hydrology issues. In 84, the big flood was preceded by a few smaller floods, and that could be the case again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 18Z NAM is getting closer to the time range of any potential snow.. tough to say how it might extrapolate.. it doesn't seem to be emphasizing too much of redevelopment like the Euro and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 18Z NAM is getting closer to the time range of any potential snow.. tough to say how it might extrapolate.. it doesn't seem to be emphasizing too much of redevelopment like the Euro and GFS. Big differences on the 18z NAM vs the 12z NAM which are leading to a faster progression of the front, and thus the secondary wave is not develped in time. 12z NAM hr 84 vs 18z NAM hr 78 hr 84, the trough turns negitive too late and the flow is too progressive to bring excessive QPF to our region. It's the 18z NAM and it's at the end of its range so I guess its best to take its solution with a grane of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 12z gfs individual ensemble Resized to 87% (was 1000 x 600) - Click image to enlarge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 lol Philly-Trenton bullseye on that one ensemble with around 14" but the majority of the tristate gets 10"+..... of course it's in lala land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 12z gfs individual ensemble Designated map of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 The 18z GFS ensemble mean does seem to produce a couple of inches of snow on Monday in Northern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 00z NAM is warmer again on Saturday over the warm sector Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I'm still not understanding what exactly the GFS is attempting to do, it's almost as if it weakens the wave before it reached our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I'm still not understanding what exactly the GFS is attempting to do, it's almost as if it weakens the wave before it reached our area. I think the confluence to the north is weakening the wave....you can see it here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 If you take the new NAM and make it just a tad more progressive, our area is going to get crushed. Right now heaviest QPF is just to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 If you take the new NAM and make it just a tad more progressive, our area is going to get crushed. Right now heaviest QPF is just to our west. Today's 12z models so far, NAM, RSM and ETA are all focusing more on the developing low pressure in the south. They are pretty much taking away the front deluge now and have all the energy wrapping into the developing low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 One thing is for sure, if a low as developed as the one shown on the NAM passes to our east as some models indicate, were going to have major hydrology issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 12z NAM 60hr QPF through hr84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 NAM is very slow with its progression.. would be a lot of rain for somebody.. no cold air to be found either.. even northern new england doesn't see much in the way of frozen stuff with the NAM solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 NAM is very slow with its progression.. would be a lot of rain for somebody.. no cold air to be found either.. even northern new england doesn't see much in the way of frozen stuff with the NAM solution. If you take the idea that the GFS is too fast and that the NAM is too slow that puts us right in the bullseye. I tend to think that a more wrapped up low is the way to go, with lots of QPF as the GFS first indicated days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 GFS has initialized, I'm hoping for a nice 5" QPF bullseye IMBY regardless of the temp profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 06z GEFS mean puts all of our area over 1" QPF in 24hrs with 1.5" just to the west. That's a good indication that the op is underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 So far through hr15 our southern stream S/W looks sharper than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 through hr 33, the northern stream looks a tad stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 It looks to me like the northern stream S/W is going to out run the southern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 would be a very mild Saturday night per GFS... in fact, all of New England is essentially at or above freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 It looks to me like the northern stream S/W is going to out run the southern stream yes, this is not a phased system.. the southern wave will be the big rain maker in our parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 measureable precip looks to come in by around noon-time on Sunday. 1012 mb low pressure over western SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 It's hard to tell right now if this is going to be a higher QPF solution or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 It's hard to tell right now if this is going to be a higher QPF solution or not at 21Z on Sunday, moderate rainfall, with heavy QPF over the delmarva.. looks like the bullseye may come through Sunday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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