k*** Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Still like a Euro/UKM blend with a weak system, maybe open wave, towards S FL is the UKM still showing a 594 decameter ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 is the UKM still showing a 594 decameter ridge? I can't tell because your post is at the bottom of the page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Still like a Euro/UKM blend with a weak system, maybe open wave, towards S FL I think this may have something to do with recurve even though it's not as much of a factor in summer. +PNA and -NAO = east coast trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 I took Emily as a TD into Key Largo this morning. Not that exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 I took Emily as a TD into Key Largo this morning. Not that exciting. You'll get Key Largo pretty close to right...might just be a TW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 I think this may have something to do with recurve even though it's not as much of a factor in summer. +PNA and -NAO = east coast trough. -NAO since early June. That is incredible! It didnt reject the extreme heat from getting here but it definitely helped keep our heat waves short. Would like to see it go positive to get a nice Bermuda ridge established for the meat of the hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 -NAO since early June. That is incredible! It didnt reject the extreme heat from getting here but it definitely helped keep our heat waves short. Would like to see it go positive to get a nice Bermuda ridge established for the meat of the hurricane season. -NAO's in summer can yield heat waves...shorter wavelengths can easily be beat down by a strong enough ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Little swirl in the central Atlantic. Looks it's beig sheared at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Euro from last night has 92L paralleling the East Coast D9/D10. Runs from just east of Hatteras to just east of Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Sunrise pic of 92L. Fairly high latitude - will need pretty strong Burmuda high to keep it from being a fish storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 For point of comparison, the 12z euro took 92l to 60w in recurve. My inkling is that 92l is a fish (might be a Bermuda system at worst) as is the one behind it, which I think is already farther north coming off of Africa than 92l was. With that said, it wouldn't surprise me if some homebrew fired up off of the Carolinas next week after Sunday's front drops to the Carolinas and stalls out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Been on the NC coast when those little systems stall. Doesn't make for a good vaca! Appreciate this thread here as you all track anything out there in the Atlantic. The family is heading to OBX on the 21st. Not the greatest time of year for weather there, but hoping for a 50-50 week at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 For point of comparison, the 12z euro took 92l to 60w in recurve. My inkling is that 92l is a fish (might be a Bermuda system at worst) as is the one behind it, which I think is already farther north coming off of Africa than 92l was. With that said, it wouldn't surprise me if some homebrew fired up off of the Carolinas next week after Sunday's front drops to the Carolinas and stalls out. I sure hope future 93L doesn't fish also. It would be a shame to waste a nice grannycane name like Gert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 12z euro takes 92l between Bermuda and US -- about 70W. 93l gets to about 60W before it goes north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 The European model is forecasting a fairly deep east coast trough through 10 days that would protect the US east coast from 92 and 93L. The GFS is not so aggressive with trough and its forecast would make the storm tracks more iffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Not a fan of East Coast troughing at D10. All teleconnections point toward either flat or ridging along the Eastern Seaboard at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Not a fan of East Coast troughing at D10. All teleconnections point toward either flat or ridging along the Eastern Seaboard at that time. If the PNA collapses like the GFS projects, I would agree with a flat regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Not a fan of East Coast troughing at D10. All teleconnections point toward either flat or ridging along the Eastern Seaboard at that time. 12z euro brings 93l in to the Bahamas/Cuba vicinity by d10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 93L is gonna have to really thread the needle to become any threat to the east coast. Too far south and it's a Caribbean storm (although still fun to track) and too far north and it gets whisked out to sea. A track just north of Hispaniola would be ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 93L is gonna have to really thread the needle to become any threat to the east coast. Too far south and it's a Caribbean storm (although still fun to track) and too far north and it gets whisked out to sea. A track just north of Hispaniola would be ideal. 93l on the euro last night hits Cancun in ten days lol it's gone from Bermuda to Cancun in about 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 93l on the euro last night hits Cancun in ten days lol it's gone from Bermuda to Cancun in about 24 hours. Yummy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Yummy. The GFS takes it to Newfoundland. We need one of those AccuWeather cones of uncertainty that take up the whole Atlantic basin for this one lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Looks like an east based -NAO wants to rebuild around days 8-10 according to the Euro and GFS. May have to wait until September to track any east coast threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Can't believe i'm about to do this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 the backflow flooding in the Chesapeake bay and Delaware River would be mind boggling. If southern NJ did not have enough rain already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShoreWXgal Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Yea, that will happen...next run it will be into Mexico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Can't believe i'm about to do this... The 00z and 18z had a fish but close enough for some rain to EC. Definitely an interesting signal for this far out. Don't worry all, I'll do it myself...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 !!!! haha. i believe that will the 1st and last time i post a fantasy cane' on here. Although, the thread got a little busier since i've posted. Still, with the return of the -NAO after a brief dip into the positive anomaly, the EC seems pretty well protected from such occurances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShoreWXgal Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Yea, that will happen...next run it will be into Mexico I was close.. http://i.imgur.com/8d06d.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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