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Showing results for tags 'sleet'.
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Less than a week out and all indicies show both Carolinas getting something... So let's bring this one all the way home
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January Discussion thread, figured it was time to start one given how close we are to the new year.
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mPing should be interesting. The advisory for a mix of wintry elements will probably start with a burst of decent snowfall rates between sunrise and 2PM before a probable change to rain, freezing rain or sleet on LI and I80 southward during the afternoon and possibly back to ice or snow early Wednesday. The i84 corridor should be mostly snow, if not all snow. The region southeast of I95 in NJ after starting as snow or sleet should transition to plain rain by Tuesday night but it might be marginal for icing in Monmouth-Middlesex counties near the colder air sitting astride I80-LI. This I believe is the first expected widespread winter weather advisory event dating back to at least January 3. There's a small chance for a period of flurries along I195 to maybe near I78 in NJ between midnight and 4am but the main event in the NYC forum begins during the daylight hours Tuesday. -
Mostly all rain should be confined to the region s of I-78, LI-NYC. Sleet or snow begins near I78 ~9 or 10A and spreads northeast, possibly possibly drying out to flurries reaching CT/se NYS midday. Thereafter the bigger part of this event occurs 2PM-2AM as mostly wet snow just nw of I95. Heaviest snowfall seems slated for the elevations including the Poconos-Catskills with 3-5", 2 to possibly 5" rest of se NYS, nw NJ along and north of I80 to the Merritt Parkway-in other words west of the CT River, but possibly a dryer zone of under 2" to at most 4" ne CT-central MA. These amounts are uncertain-based on guidance through the 06z/3 cycle. There will be melting on pavement today below 700 feet elevation during the day but a plowable snow seems certain for the hilly areas, especially w of the CT River with accumulation on all untreated surfaces after sundown. The precipitation driver will probably at least in part be an inverted trough developing northwest from a rapidly deepening low pressure system heading east northeast of the mid Atlantic coast. The inverted portion of the trough should be back to the Poconos and that I think is why the heavier qpf tends to be modeled there.
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A routine wintry ice event, that will create some travel problems in high terrain above 1000 feet late today and early tonight, primarily along the I84 corridor.
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Good Wednesday morning everyone, I've followed a recent example on the New England forum and offer this topic as a start over at 1PM with obs-nowcasts. The tags included hopefully cover the gamut of potential amounts. If we are certain about daily records being exceeded please add and ditto if we get top 20 at any xmacis climate site. Thank you all for contributing to the excitement-anticipation of a pretty good nor'easter.
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Figured we could have a separate thread dedicated strictly to December. Should be helpful when looking back on the discussions in the future. Hope everyone is doing well, and I hope we all have a December to remember!
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Good Monday morning everyone, Have offered to focus the general discussion thread on next weekends storm into one single thread. It's been a terrible winter so far s of I80 and not much to boast about north of I80. I'm adding graphics daily at about this time, until the threat fails to materialize. No guarantees on anything. It does not look good for NYC south, so far. Contributions are from the NWS public domain and the Weather.US and the ECMWF. We'll see how this verifies for long range value. The first two graphics are the NWS ensemble chance of greater than .25" water equivalent of frozen precipitation. These are run off of late day ensembles and post, "prior" to the 00z cycle ensembles. The two graphics courtesy of the ECMWF are the chances of 3+" of snow for this event which are increasing a bit in the I84 area and are from the 00z ensembles. No LOCK on any of this coming to pass though I'm pretty confident the interior west and north of NYC will have some sort of winter hazards this weekend. Depends I think, in part on how strong the northern stream short wave is that crosses the Great Lakes. The stronger it is, then I think the storm tracks further north. At 633AM the 14th, I added the 00z/14 NWS ensemble and EPS chance of 3+ inches of snow so that it's easy to go back and compare to reality. The risk has increased a bit for the NWS ensemble system to something similar to the EPS. Certainly no lock for 3+ inches s of I-84. At 457PM/19 added the NOHRSC snowfall analysis. Gives a feel for value in the ensembles. Later, Walt
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Hi, This thread is for obs only, keeping it a swift read-check for anyone wanting to see how much has fallen, including any NWS/Media. Also, attached is a final NOHRSC snowfall analysis for our Dec 11 event, which now properly reflects the NYC reality of sub 1 inch. Thank you very much to all who have added data to the prior obs threads. Walt
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Hi! Would like to see an obs only page for this storm to make it easier to find the data, not only for myself but potentially the media with avid winter weather interest quite high. I'll add only 1 EXPERIMENTAL graphic from about 5AM this morning (Saturday 30th before the storm), but may eventually add pix to support observations as this complex event evolves in its banded - varying intensity form. The graphic below i think is realistic about axis of trouble and I can explain it a bit on the Dec 1-3 discussion page if requested, for those who've not seen this experimental product. Other NWS staff may improve on my interpretation. The legend should assist.
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Good morning American Weather participants, It might be nice to consolidate wintry precip reports for whatever this minor event delivers today, under one topic. While flurries have occurred in parts of the metro area (nw NJ for sure) on the 8th, today's short period of flurries or snow should be a little more widespread though confidence on where anyone sees a slight accumulation (especially grass-cars-rooftops) is less than ideal.
