TellicoWx

12z CMC pops a low (day later) that is on a similar track as the GFS.

So far all 0z modeling looking a little better (NAM, RGEM, ICON) for NW flow areas

11 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Oh ye of little faith...

Definitely a better run for the NW flow folks...can also see the embedded streaks of heavier precip in the 0z 3K.

Very light freezing drizzle here...really messing up roads. Car flipped on the Hwy 411 bridge in Vonore

Roads here are iced over

Picked up a quick dusting on elevated surfaces

Radar isn't picking it up, but have a moderate snow shower going here in Madisonville 

12 minutes ago, John1122 said:

This is what Tellico is referring too. Watch the final frame vs the prior 3 runs. 

Thanks John...and if you watch the last frame all 3 pieces of energy (Southwest, N. Plains, and ours) jumps back west almost exactly the same distance. Almost like it shifted the entire upper air pattern over NA in unison.

1 minute ago, Vol4Life said:

Noticed the GFS trend over the past 3 runs is the westward expansion of the precip.  It’s literally moved back to the west about 200 miles.   
 

What do you mean by jumping the energy?  Trying to learn..

If you watch the 500mb vort map, you can follow the northern energy digging south. Earlier runs it digs thru the OH River valley. 0z digs it back into MO. Short range has been digging it to OK. Further west/southwest it can dig. The better odds of 1) able to spin a LP sooner (more west than currently) 2) increases the interaction with the energy over the south west.

GEFS jumped the energy as well...another jump like that and the GFS will look more like the short range models, and bring alot more into the game.

GFS is struggling right now...jumped ever piece of energy 150 or so miles west in North America @69h

GFS digging SW a little more, not sure how much it will help

MRX going to ride the NBM again

6 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The RGEM jumped more NW than the NAM. Has a nice 2-4 inch event East of 75.

It and the NAM dig the northern energy more SW, allowing them to pickup the southern energy. GFS misses the connection but trails weakened form of the energy behind the initial (2nd wave). Euro misses and squashes the 2nd.

2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I wonder if this ends up being like the December 2017 storm? 

Something similar is what I believe is the most probable outcome (but who know, changes in 500 from run to run is bad right now). Not much separation in energy, depends on how far SE the initial front pushes/orientation and then multiple day overrunning with the waves following along the stalled front. Just don't buy any amped solution right now, week LP popping maybe.

12z GEFS increased valley thru Sat evening vs 06z. 

Think we are going to have more than the usual run to run variability in the short to medium range...so much energy in the 500 pattern coming up. Typically when you trend loop the 500 on models, they smooth out somewhere in the 60hr-84hr range. Currently it's in the 30hr-48hr range (GFS on the lower end). Model verification 120hr scores are starting to show this as well, with GFS currently not doing so well.

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

How close was it for the storm that just passed. I know it looked like it was going to score a coup but think the back side may have doomed it. 

It had the areas right all way from AR to MS to TN, but was low to very low (depending on area) 

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

That's a bump from 18z. 

Yeah thats another thing that surprised me..it moves at very slow increments up and down. It nearly doubled from 18z.

Good example of how conservative it is on accum maps, look at the KY/IL/IN area. Most models right now have at least a 2" swath thru there for the mid week system. But the NBM only puts out .5". So for it to be putting out 2" amounts in our area 5 days out seems like pretty loud honking from it.

Since watching the NBM the last 2 systems, it seems to get the area...but is really conservative on totals. So the 0z run is interesting. 0z 120 hr

WPC, wouldn't take much of a NW trend in their thoughts to be in the game.

The area with slightly higher confidence (albeit not "that" high given lingering model spread) is
the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. The aforementioned jet streak on Thursday sticks around into Friday
with a favorable low level baroclinic environment hovering atop the Southeast. How long the region
is under the influence of this potentially wintry setup depends on how a pair of upper level
disturbances interact. The Euro ensembles suggest a slower and more amplified look on Friday while
the GEFS are more progressive, but still wintry nonetheless with just under half of is 12Z members
showing freezing rain potential in the Carolinas to close out the week. Have introduced heavy snow
and sleet/freezing rain areas for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast where these regions may
witness potentially up to a few days worth of wintry weather. 

3 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

Lol at “random snow band”. Yeah that just came out of nowhere.


.

All I have to see is the name...Ken Weathers is one of the biggest jokes of a meteorologist (and I use that term loosely for him).

We need a good Ole Triple Phaser...seems like it's been forever lol 

Got some light snow moving thru again