TellicoWx

DeSoto Co., North MS 

WWA up for west TN

Tellico River and Bald River Falls today

12z 3k NAM... if you are a snow lover, this hurts. Decent clipper moving over, but virga due to very dry air at the surface.

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

It coated the cars that had been driven today. It's tiny flakes about as big around as pencil erasers. But quite a lot of them. 

0z RGEM wants to put about 1" of pixie dust down up your way

0z RGEM with the little clipper that could lol

Walked outside an wind is up to around 20 mph out of the south. Wasn't much wind about an hour ago.

Can you tell the front passed the station NW Jonesboro, AR lol...graph can't keep up (temp actually at 32)

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

In my experience with the DGZ that low and temps so cold, you get small ice crystals, even if the sky is blue. I don't recall ever seeing freezing mist at temps below 10.

Salina, KS had freezing rain/mist and a temp of 1° last night. Looked almost like a fog.

16z HRRR freezing rain..concerning. Have to fill in the holes where simulation can't keep up with the front.

2 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Don't know if anyone has noticed but the Blizzard warnings have expanded westward back to Montana where the front had already passed yesterday. Which means if NWS offices out there didn't think it was necessary to issue until well after fropa then the winds and overall strength of the storm and its impacts were underestimated yesterday.

Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk
 

Alot of offices that way played catch up thru the night. Starting to see the upgrades out in front now (such as western KY/ MO upgrading a little bit ago to WSW)

The ice scenario is what played out last night over Kansas. No model showed any icing (or very, very little). State turned into a skating rink..with enough accretion for photos of icicles hanging off mail boxes.

Sure many of us has seen systems where lift didn't adequately get the moist into the DGZ, and instead of snow we got mist/graupel (while upslope was snow). Imagine that except surface in single digits.

Big concern for the Valley on the low level moisture is the DGZ speed lowering and how dry it is. The residual  could be squeezed out in the form of light drizzle/fog creating a nightmare glaze on everything. Won't take very much drizzle to instantly freeze on contact for things to go down hill quickly.

Really hoping that the hole in the valley isn't similar to what is happening out that way. Low level moisture trapped at the surface being squeezed out, but the DGZ not quite catching up as quickly as the the temp crash occurs. 

Yet to find a model anywhere showing the ice in Central Kansas. Salina, KS looks like a skating rink with wrecks everywhere from freezing drizzle/fog. Obs reporting .10"-15" so far. Think even out there the models not seeing at ground level very well.

23 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

I just don't buy the complete blank of the valley. The plateau has an effect of downsloping but I think it's exaggerating that effect as though the plateau has the elevation of the smokies.

Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk
 

Think right now we are in no man's land..3 hr increments on the globals isn't helping at the key moments the front comes down into the valley and we are too far out for the hi res mess models. Add in the DGZ being in a very uncommon place, and we get this result. May honestly not know one way or the other on the valley until the event is almost on top of the area.

Can still see some of the resolution problems 

As much as I love snow..I really feel for you guys out that way if the GFS score the coup.

GFS just Nam'd plateau/west lol

RGEM took a baby step forward plateau/west

Freezing drizzle causing alot of problems on Kansas DOT map (Purple is reporting ice covered)