TellicoWx

00z CMC looking better for the next system

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z GFS is going to release the Arctic hounds after the NAO/SER hook ridge slides off at +300.

Yep, and the Southern Jet stays active even then...would be a great potential setup.

13 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

The 1/4 wave on the GFS has Tellico's Great Lakes low. I think Tellico summoned it. 

Seems to always be the big fly in the ointment on these setups. 12z CMC is a great visual for seeing how much of a difference they can make...system #1 (GL Low) valley struggles at lower levels...system #2 (HP over the top) slider with better thermals.

Something to keep an eye on for the next potential system, especially with marginal temps...the strength and placement of any Great Lakes Low.

1 minute ago, Calderon said:

There isn't one in effect. RadarScope is having some weird problem on cell phone apps. 

2nd Tornado Emergency..north of the 1st one

36 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Now hang on.. all of a sudden the RGEM/NAM/and HRRR smoke the border counties with a few hours of heavy paste...

Yeah wouldn't be surprised if this a late bloomer as a weak lee side low tries to develop up the spine of the Apps. Anyone East of I75 above 2000' (1500' north of I40) may be in for a surprise.

20 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

SREF plumes average 0.25 (Knox) - 2 inches Wise/ Roane Mt. Looks like my mood flakes are still on the menu. 

18z NAM even looked a little healthier wrt precip. 

 

09z Plumes showing some crazy members for TYS

7 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Do these HPs usually press better than modeled, or is that just a weenie wish casting rule? 

First thought that went thru my head on that 18z run...Goofy just looks off more than usual. This whole setup is just screaming ice west of the plateau to me, across all 3 models.

Cmc had been very consistent honking big Ice along the MS. Apparently pivotal needs to expand their ice map range lol

If you ever wonder what the perfect setup is here in the upper south...Goofy just showed it. 1060+ HP crashing into the Midwest generating a LP on the leading edge...HP setting up far enough south over the OH valley to funnel/anchor the cold down both sides of the Apps (almost like a double CAD)..and an active STJ attacking the retreating HP.

Nothing like 2" of freezing rain and a foot of snow...Goofy rides again 

Definitely going into the Happy Hour Hall of Fame lol

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

18z GFS is a nice run so far to echo Silas.

Big 1060 HP unleashed artic that run

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

My lights are flickering as I look at this run.

What lights from Pensacola to Atlanta lol

When a CAM model (0z HRRR) streaks this heavily almost into Gwinnet Co, GA at that range...definitely peaks my attention level lol.

Something noticed on the models last few runs, (outside the Cherohala Skyway, Monroe Co usually doesn't do well in NW flow events..so haven't been following that closely). The Euro/Canadian/RGEM usually pick up on the elevation change fairly well and don't show much for Tellico/Sweetwater/Athens area, but this event they have the 1" line creeping into those areas. Highly unusual, and something to keep an eye on. If they are picking up on something, may be a surprise bust high in the central valley even.

Flurries still....2"

Got moderate snow still...my guess is will be close to 2" by time it wraps up here.

No driving off my hill..solid ice with 1" of snow on top..still snowing.

Crashes all over Monroe and McMinn Co. 

Upgraded to a flizzard here..even tho returns don't look great. Coated the roads pretty quickly.

One good note I guess, HRRR and RAP didn't pick up the current bands..accum on those runs don't start until closer to 7.

6 minutes ago, bearman said:

• Pretty good snow coming down now in West Knoxville. Our roads are solid white and we have large flakes coming down.

Yeah thats how it was in Madisonville under the band moving up the valley. Nice rates if you get under it.

Side roads in Madisonville are coated, still barely a flurry in Tellico