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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    EPS and AIFS-EPS both perked up
  2. brooklynwx99
    same general premise as 1/6/22 if you recall. that was a nice little Arctic wave
  3. brooklynwx99
    this is why it’s sometimes not as simple as worse PNA -> weaker storm… the TPV is better oriented and allows the vort to curl more on the ECMWF
  4. brooklynwx99
    this is why it’s sometimes not as simple as worse PNA -> weaker storm… the TPV is better oriented and allows the vort to curl more
  5. brooklynwx99
    the GEFS is so horribly underdispersive that the OP probably is influencing its ensemble 16 days later
  6. brooklynwx99
    AIFS ENS actually looks pretty nice. I feel like this is more likely given the tropical forcing but who knows
  7. brooklynwx99
    isn’t most of the warmth forecasting on this forum persistence forecasting? lmao
  8. brooklynwx99
    ECMWF with a pretty significant improvement with heights out west. went from nothing to something
  9. brooklynwx99
    thermal gradient aloft is pretty impressive so you really just a little bit of 500mb forcing
  10. brooklynwx99
    nice Arctic wave. seeing the PNA get a bit better is a plus
  11. brooklynwx99
    what would you consider “this?” i’d think there’s still a good bit of regression and generally unfavorable -ENSO/-PDO type stuff going on as well along with the compression you always mention
  12. brooklynwx99
    not much in the way of OP run cinema
  13. brooklynwx99
    yeah, the anomalies are always more useful
  14. brooklynwx99
    we continue to trend out west
  15. brooklynwx99
    can’t deny the trends out west
  16. brooklynwx99
    west based blocking decaying around that time also argues for a storm popping up
  17. brooklynwx99
    yeah, talk about dynamic. you have an actual ridge in the west, too. stout
  18. brooklynwx99
    12-13th might be an actual window to watch. nice to see the ridge out west trend taller, which helps shift the trough west as well
  19. brooklynwx99
    nice to see the ridge out west trend taller. helps the trough location and amplitude
  20. brooklynwx99
    yeah, can see heights trending higher in the West and the trough inching into a better spot as a result
  21. brooklynwx99
    the weeklies usually defer to ENSO climo as you head later into the winter anyway
  22. brooklynwx99
    personally, I usually go about saying what the pattern may call for (small to mod events) rather than saying that it can't satisfy the upper echelon of events. like how cold is it? will it be dry? what's the mean storm track like? what he said wasn't incorrect... I agree with him. I just think there's more value added saying what you can get or the flavor of the pattern itself rather stating that you won't see a NESIS level event. you will be able to do that 90% of the time
  23. brooklynwx99
    i do think a larger storm is possible after the 15th into early Jan if the -NAO holds on and heights rise out west a bit more with help from tropical forcing, but that's way out there
  24. brooklynwx99
    who was calling for one? I don't think anybody has mentioned the risk for one... seems like light to mod events generally my point was that saying that a pattern isn't conducive for historic storms isn't really saying all that much. you can say that about most patterns. it's like saying most football players won't make it to the NFL. it's implied
  25. brooklynwx99
    to be fair, most patterns are "hostile to KUs." they're rare and require some specific features
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