RyanDe680

2 hours ago, sokolow said:

Check out his comment on USA from the presser before and you can see how Mike Ryan works his messaging:

acknowledging local challenges & sociopolitical context, praise, pointing towards need for science based leadership, praise, countries need to fashion a solution thats long term, praise, emphasis that there needs to be a plan driven by case data and healthcare capability, optimistic finish

 

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Thank you for taking my question. Dr. Tedros, a few weeks ago, you had said that America was doing a great job in fighting the coronavirus. On Thursday, President Trump said that he asked whether or not injecting disinfectants into the body would help kill it. There are states that are reopening government, reopening services, even though there’s no contract tracing in virtually any state in the United States and we’re about to hit a million cases. Can you tell me if you still think the United States is doing a great job? And if so, what is it that the US is doing well? And what is it that we’re not doing so well?

 

Speaker 3: (33:07)
Thank you very much for this question, Dawn.

Dr. Michael J. Ryan: (33:11)
Thank you. I think the United States is dealing, as it has been for awhile, with what is a complex situation. This is a very large country with 50 states, each one with different populations, with different levels of urbanization, and the epidemic at different levels of development and evolution in each of those. I believe the federal government and the system of governors are working together to move America and it’s people through this very difficult situation with public health and other scientific leaders adding and inputting their advice into the system. And as such, as the DG just said, WHO advises our member states on what we believe to be rational policies, but governments themselves-

Dr. Michael J. Ryan: (34:03)
I believe to be irrational policies. But the governments themselves and especially in the United States with its superb public health, health, science and policy infrastructure is well-positioned to manage its own transition from the public health and social measures, and has to balance, as I’ve said before, the health issues associated with COVID, and the lives and livelihoods issues.

Dr. Michael J. Ryan: (34:28)
What we can say is that it’s important that I think there is a national plan. I think that has been very clearly laid out, a phased plan for a stepwise reduction in public health and social measures. That plan is driven by certain parameters of data. Like I mentioned before, a downward trajectory of cases, the availability of capacity in the health system and many others. As Maria said, it’s a multifaceted decision-making process. And that framework exists. And obviously, if that framework is being advised by top scientists at a federal level, then obviously it is a discussion with the state system as how best to introduce that.

Dr. Michael J. Ryan: (35:16)
But we believe that the overarching federal plan seems to be very much based on science and to the extent possible. And with all of the adaptations that are needed as we move forward, we hope that the US government and its people can move through that plan, work through day to day how to do that, and we’ll find a successful solution that reduces the impact on people’s lives and also on their livelihoods.

 

 

I agree with collaboration.  But with that comes forwardness and honesty to share data. You really think that only 80,000 people had this in China - a country 5 times more populated than the US?

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The percent of the total population that has died in Sweden (not talking deaths divided by confirmed cases) is actually running higher than the US.  I don't know if I'd call them the model.  One thing mentioned in there was the long term care facilities.  That has been an epic disaster in many countries.  Very sad. 

The real problem with Sweden’s approach is the general lack of knowledge around mutation.  If this mutates similarly to the flu (only in terms of the viral replication and then mutation of the flu) then I don’t know how herd immunity would work.  

https://covidtracking.com/data

what do we think of these guys?  lots of flaws in this I think

https://www.turnto23.com/news/coronavirus/video-interview-with-dr-dan-erickson-and-dr-artin-massihi-taken-down-from-youtube

Further complicating things - during the press conference yesterday, IL said that their Rt is at 1.2, while this (https://rt.live/) shows 0.88.  

Interesting to see full sun and warming up so quickly.  Used to the lousy starts with cloud cover and no time to recover.

11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Multiple states said they had calls into 911 or state health departments regarding taking disinfectants for the virus.  It is hard to imagine some people could be that stupid but I guess so.

The clorox gummies are not an option then?

On 4/26/2020 at 10:35 AM, RyanDe680 said:

Also for anyone tracking this - the numbers have gotten worse.  I can’t figure the explanation for that as well.   
 

https://rt.live/

OK now the opposite has happened and this has gotten a lot better.  I guess I don't understand the data going in and coming out.

Also for anyone tracking this - the numbers have gotten worse.  I can’t figure the explanation for that as well.   
 

https://rt.live/

2 hours ago, hoosierwx said:

With all the assymptomatic cases it may be like trying to place a hurricane warning on the US coast based on one ship report in the Leeward Islands. I have my doubts there will ever be enough tests or people to run down every contact. We are about 6 weeks into social distancing and almost as long into the shut down and still getting record numbers. Yeah, there are more tests but still getting that many positives is concerning.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk
 

Yes that’s what I can’t comprehend.  I understand the higher rate of testing but why are the numbers still so high 

13 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Attn:  Indiana people.  I found a site that has statewide and county by county hospitalization data.

https://www.regenstrief.org/covid-dashboard/

Here's the chart for IN.  Positive news is that the hospitalization curve appears to be flattening in recent days.  But the discharges have basically flattened as well.

This is the exact data we need. IL probably can’t afford to develop this, but I wonder how something like this compares to seasonal flu.  That to me makes the determination as to the severity of this, given testing isn’t where it needs to be. 

2 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

It’s due to increased testing. There could be some other ancillary reasons, but increased testing is the simplest explanation. Occam’s Razor. 

I can see that - but then how would you know that you’re actually bending the curve or if you are continuing to have population exposure.  
 

this is hard as I normally work with numbers but I hit a wall with modeling.  Especially in a situation where the variable (the testing) continue to increase.  

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

As of today, Indiana has 44% ICU bed availability and 78% ventilator availability.  That is pretty decent, and the concern about bed and ventilator availability if the outbreak went unchecked was the main driver of the lockdown.  So if I were governor of Indiana, here's what I would do when the current stay at home expires on May 1.

Open barbershops and salons, but by appointment only.  Clean frequently and require everybody to wear a mask.

Open gyms on a limited basis, based on seniority.  People with the longest memberships can go, but nobody else.  Clean frequently and encourage mask use (may get uncomfortable when exercising lol).  

Everything else that is closed, I would pretty much leave all of that closed for now.  Maintain take out/drive thru/delivery only for restaurants.  

Do that for 1 month and then reevaluate.  I don't think it's smart to open up like 10 sectors all at once, because the number of cases could quickly ramp up.  

I understand the temptation to just let herd immunity take over, but the numbers would really spike and threaten to overwhelm hospitals.  Even if the hospitals could somehow handle the load in that scenario (very unlikely), I think there is value in trying to delay getting sick.  While the hyped up treatments don't seem to be panning out very well so far, it is possible that some effective treatment is found prior to a potential vaccine.  

With regard to the herd immunity - Sweden has gone that route and has a 12% death rate. Granted that’s with testing less than 0.2% of the population.  

42 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Big jump in Illinois cases... +2724.  But there were like 16000 tests submitted since yesterday, which is the most in a single day.

I wonder if that modeling that showed Illinois peaking in mid May was factoring in increased testing capacity.  I would guess not but I am not familiar with all that goes into them.  

He mentioned during some press conference this week (can't remember which) that the modeling did, but I don't think at that rate - something more in the 10k range.

Still confusing to me how these number continue to go up despite the soon-to-be 6 week lock down on a virus that supposedly takes 14 days max to show symptoms.  Something tells me that the 14 day thing is way off.

6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

We are already well over 2k deaths on worldometers.  Or are you talking about cases?

Just cases - Once that starts to decline then I would expect the number of deaths to follow within weeks.

42 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Very bad day for MI unfortunately with 232 new deaths reported, I wonder if it's due to a lag in weekend reporting. I think there's an increase pretty much everywhere every Tuesday and Wednesday. 

So far today, the country is tracking below yesterday, which was below Sunday as well.

11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Dipping in to the Illinois news conference and they are suggesting the Illinois peak may not be until mid May.  That's not good.

I find that hard to believe.  No one is of course forthcoming on what 'models' these are based on but again, I can't understand why if we have been in lockdown for over 5 weeks now, thats 35 days.  If this spreads for 14 days, whats going on with the continued rise in cases if we are 21 days past this.  It has to be more than families passing it around.  Hell, I have just been FaceTiming people.

Illinois just needs to up the testing.  Chicago is the 3rd biggest city in the country, yet we are behind Texas and Florida in testing?

1 hour ago, josh_4184 said:

Anyone else paying attention to Crude today, what a dumpster fire for the oil industry. US crude hitting -$40 per barrel? Not easy to turn the tap off so to speak. Hard to fathom the long term economic implications COVID-19 is going to have on the world. 

The media will jump on this story...  that is for a futures contract expiring tomorrow.  It's basically saying that in 2 days, the value of oil won't be any higher than it was last week.  If you look at crude oil, it's still in the $20s - granted that is still low, but the -$40 per barrel is just a ridiculous nonsense price .

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Track the reproductive rate in your state:

https://rt.live

This is great, thanks.  Great way to see progress.

Sort of a dumb question I guess.  Take IL for example - why would the number of cases continue to go up on a daily basis if we've been in lockdown for over a month, especially if this has a 14 day incubation?  Is this just the spread at grocery stores and the like, or can this be that many asymptomatic people?  What would cause an asymptomatic person to even get tested if the testing is so limited, according to every other article?  I'm so confused on some of this stuff and I can come up with an explanation, but then I'm sitting here questioning myself...

19 hours ago, Stebo said:

It could be worse, we could live in Florida where an idiot is the governor there.

 

 

How on earth do you open the beaches right now down there.

So typical media - that’s an old photo.  Drone photos from yesterday showed barely any people out there.  
 

Doesnt change the fact that their governor is still a moron. 

8 minutes ago, Stebo said:

It could be worse, we could live in Florida where an idiot is the governor there.

 

 

How on earth do you open the beaches right now down there.

that guy is a complete idiot.  At 1,400 new cases a day down there how do you think that’s a good idea.  

1 minute ago, Stebo said:

Yes but the rate of being very sick isn't low and if this virus isn't treated as being very dangerous that number would skyrocket as would the death rate. Remember these numbers we have are with precautions in place, can you imagine what it would be like without them?

Yeah and that's the problem.  With the lockdown 'the curve' may be flattened but is still substantial.

2 minutes ago, Stebo said:

That's a good point too that nearly 700k people have been tested for it but what if I told you the actual number of cases was 10 or 20x that. Just look at the numbers coming off these Navy ships, that over 50% of the cases are asymptomatic. So you know there are millions in this country who may be infected and not even remotely realize it.

Yea but that is exactly my point - we only know about those that have sought medical care in order to get tested.  The testing saga is a whole other discussion, but my point was that 0.2% of the population has sought to get tested because the symptoms may have been bad enough, not counting the (guessing) millions of those walking around not knowing that they have it or are carrying it.

13 minutes ago, Snownado said:

I know it sounds crazy but there are people out there who would be ok with shutting everything down for the next year if it meant saving lives. Of course they don't think about the negative effects it would have, they are just focused on one side of the equation. We would probably all die from starvation by then. At some point you just gotta say screw it. Im going out and living my life. If I die then I die. I'd rather die than live in a world of hopelessness and suffering that lasts for decades.

While understanding the severity of the illness, one also has to look at the statistics.   In the US at least, with 695k confirmed cases, that represents approximately 0.21% of the population.  That is at least cases where people felt compelled to seek some type of medical attention.  

In consideration, I think that the way that we were 'going about' our lives is what will change as a result of this, at least for now.  We can prove that this shut down can help to stem the evolution of this, however I think that it's how we act with the 're-opening' of things that determines where we go from here.