RyanDe680

Decent recovery here.  Temps jumped to 73 pretty quickly. 

I wish IL would ramp up the antibody testing.  I went for one, and it came back negative, but I wish more people would voluntarily go or have their physicians suggest such.  

As a side note, up for some good training.  Last time that happened I think was 2015 or 2016 for about 8-10 hours of just pounding rain.

National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
302 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

.SHORT TERM...
249 PM CDT

Through Friday...

Lingering showers and thunderstorms have diminished in coverage and
exited to the east of the area this afternoon. Meanwhile, dew points
have surged into the low to mid 60s across the area. The extensive
cloud cover has limited surface warming somewhat, but current
satellite trends suggest the cirrus beginning to thin which should
help temperatures warm up into the low 70s across much of the area.

An east-west oriented boundary has set up across southern Iowa
into northern IL, combined with strengthening low level jet will
set the stage for potential severe weather and heavy rain this
evening and overnight.

The primary corridor for severe weather has shifted south mainly
along and south of I-80 where the better instability will be.
Conditions are not as favorable as once thought thanks to the
continued precip through the morning and early afternoon hours which
has prevented the surface boundary from lifting as far north. In
general, expecting things to begin in multi-cell clusters this
evening and transition to a more linear mode and track off to the
east. Primary severe weather threats will be strong winds on the
leading edge of this line. Some hail may be possible with the
stronger storms, especially at the onset and a QLCS tornado threat
cannot be entirely ruled out.

Of greater concern with this system is the potential for training
thunderstorms resulting in flash flooding. The upwind Corfidi
vectors for propagation into the inflow are light and even
oriented to the northeast which suggests that redevelopment
behind the leading edge of the line is possible resulting in heavy
rain falling over the same areas for multiple hours. Current
thinking and trends is that this will favor along and near the
I-80 corridor. Have fielded a Flash Flood Watch to account for the
potential for heavy rain. Wherever this ultimately sets up could
see locally heavy rain amounts of 3-4+ inches of rain when this is
all said and done. If the cold pool ends up being stronger it may
be able to help push this out of the area more quickly reducing
the flooding potential, but current thinking is this will be
limited in its influence.

Once overnight showers and thunderstorms move out Friday morning a
mostly quiet day between systems. Temperatures are expected in the
70s, (60s closest to the lake). A lake breeze is expected to develop
in the afternoon which will lead to quick cooling behind it.

Aside from the severe weather and flooding threat, dense marine fog
is expected across southern Lake Michigan through late morning
tomorrow.

Petr

&&

I think the best chance for development remains in MO, with the ability to ride NE into central IL.  Wouldn't be shocked to see the slight risk trimmed further south.  CAPE isn't currently anywhere near substantial unless you are Springfield or south and the wind field is a mess.

We're gonna ride an axis with a crap ton of rain though.

9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Looks like the new outlook trimmed the northern edge of the slight risk.

Classic case of how morning convection screws up the possibility for anything fun in the afternoon.  Looks like a nighttime soaker.

Meanwhile in IL, no idea as to what any of the data means:

https://patch.com/illinois/chicago/should-we-believe-gov-pritzkers-coronavirus-testing-statistics

This was telling:

"On May 12, for example, according to Chicago's data, about 31 percent of about 102,000 individuals tested positive for COVID-19. The state's data for the same day shows about 23 percent of more than 140,000 testing encounters in Chicago were positive."

morning convection never really a good thing for afternoon convection

good riddance winter.  lock thread, move to warmth instead.

this is a great read:
 

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

But also had the highest test count as well,  around 30k.

True, but 2,400 positives with 20k tests means the same as 4,000 positives with 30k tests.  Today was the worst day in terms of % positive. 

IL with the daily chart topper.  Very sad.

i know we are coming off a weekend, but lowest number of deaths and positive tests in 5 weeks for the country.  

Interesting about this...  ILI activity was very high in some areas in March - the harder hit areas.  However now, this activity has really subsided.  This doesn't only track the flu, but influenza like activity, which covid represents....

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

15 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Models are all showing the cold pattern finally ending over the next few days.  Warmth moves in Thursday and stays for good.  The GFS has 80s here next week and the Euro is well into the 70s as well by late this week.  The pattern may also become pretty stormy.  The euro has 2-5" of rain across Iowa from day 4-7, extending eastward into the lakes as well.

Very excited for all of this.

As a side note, in IL, there have been a little over 11,000 cases in nursing homes (approx 15% of all cases) but yet have been responsible for nearly 33% of the deaths associated with this. 

See, to say that covid isn’t the underlying cause of deaths to me is like saying that you lost money in the stock market in 2008 because stocks went down, not because of the underlying housing crisis.  Cause and effect, no?
 

if someone contracts the virus, ends up getting pneumonia and then passes away, would they have had pneumonia without the virus? (Underlying cause aside, because I know there are a decent amount of those)

interesting about the vitamin D.  Would help depends the N vs S argument.  

3 hours ago, Jonger said:

The accuracy of maps/graphs/charts right now is quite poor due to asymptomatic people never being tested.

That's my biggest issue with reporting test results.

The problem is that that data may never be reported.  if the suggestion that the antibodies last 10 weeks, we'll never know.

8 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

  That's the price you pay when an economy of production moves to an economy of service.  Once you base your economy on consumption instead of production there's nothing to support it when demand for services hits the basement.  A "Service" based economy is just that, it serves.  We haven't had a "production" or "goods" based economy in 40 or 50 years.  At least if you have a production based economy, when shit hits the fan, you can at least "make things" for yourself.  If your economy is based on service, it's artificial.  It's Bitcoin.  Walmart is the largest employer in this country (which is absolutely embarrassing).  What do they produce? 

  Not digging at you, I'm in the same boat.  I get it your a supply chain analyst.  Most people never heard of the "supply chain" in detail until it was brought up during this and may not understand completely what it is.  It's not just ships, ports trucks and/or warehouses. It's way deeper than the obvious on the surface.  But the supply chain doesn't "make" anything.  The supply chain creates jobs, but what flows through the supply chain has changed drastically over the last 40 years.   Just like what  I do for a living it doesn't "produce" a product that can be built or sold. I support a product or products that have already been built and sold.  

   This country is at a true crossroads right now, for that matter the world is.  The divisions are already deep, and like the stock market, are artificially being exasperated by selfish entities trying to exploit them at our expense for their own profit.  We are facing something now that typical American denial isn't going to work.  We're going to have to deal with it for a long time.  The economic game that's been played by us world wide, the fact that we have dollar stores, the fact that we in this country get the best deals without making shit at the expense of impoverished slaves exploited by the the "walmarts" of the world.     None of us can, nor should we, rely on the current leadership or the future leadership, to get us as a country through this.  We need to stand up, and do the hard thing, but on our terms, not the fat cats.  The economy is important, but this current economy isn't worth sacrificing lives for IMHO  This is a crucial time right now in our society.  We've been a junkie ignoring reality long enough.  I hope our kids and grandkids won't have to forgive us and may thank us instead. 

Ugh, not the artificial stock market crap again.  The bottom line is that countries with the most wealth are typically not producing economies, they naturally become service oriented.  It's supply and demand - if you could produce a glass for $5 here but another country makes the exact same glass for $3, as a business that is a no brainer.  It's not the fault of the 'economy' but the fault of business if you want to place blame.  The stock market is the way that the general population can value certain companies with no intermediary.  We all individually have access to own these companies and during times of economic shock or stress, valuations never make sense.  The common thread is that rationalization always plays out and fair valuation eventually comes out.  The human psychology controls this, not an 'entity.' 

10 hours ago, Stebo said:

I do agree there. Personally I don't though because being single for a good amount of my life, I know that if something happens to me and I am not prepared, I am ****ed.

As someone who manages money for a living, I wish everyone would think like that.

6 minutes ago, Stebo said:

That just isn't true if they are getting unemployment 960 a week before taxes per worker, if that is not enough money especially if both spouses are work and/or on unemployment they are living beyond their means. Those who aren't getting unemployment because delays are going to get it and get it backdated so the missing money will be there. That is more of an issue of gross negligence at a state level, thankfully this state has done much better than others.

I think that the sad reality is that a strong amount of people do live beyond their means.   

Meanwhile, IL reports the most cases in the country today....

4 hours ago, sokolow said:

@RyanDe680 On the other hand do you think decisionmaking in the USA about how to interpret unofficial, semiofficial, and official public health data & information from China is aided or hindered by the fact that thousands of health and biological scientists in the USA have by now had decades of close academic / professional relationships and personal friendships with their counterparts from China; how many relatively candid and direct channels of communication exist?

I'm not sure what that has to do with it?  No other country is influencing our reporting data.  You're saying that China is light years behind us in terms of reporting or understanding data?  Any ocean front property in Arizona for sale that I can buy?

2 hours ago, sokolow said:

Check out his comment on USA from the presser before and you can see how Mike Ryan works his messaging:

acknowledging local challenges & sociopolitical context, praise, pointing towards need for science based leadership, praise, countries need to fashion a solution thats long term, praise, emphasis that there needs to be a plan driven by case data and healthcare capability, optimistic finish

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Thank you for taking my question. Dr. Tedros, a few weeks ago, you had said that America was doing a great job in fighting the coronavirus. On Thursday, President Trump said that he asked whether or not injecting disinfectants into the body would help kill it. There are states that are reopening government, reopening services, even though there’s no contract tracing in virtually any state in the United States and we’re about to hit a million cases. Can you tell me if you still think the United States is doing a great job? And if so, what is it that the US is doing well? And what is it that we’re not doing so well?

 

Speaker 3: (33:07)
Thank you very much for this question, Dawn.

Dr. Michael J. Ryan: (33:11)
Thank you. I think the United States is dealing, as it has been for awhile, with what is a complex situation. This is a very large country with 50 states, each one with different populations, with different levels of urbanization, and the epidemic at different levels of development and evolution in each of those. I believe the federal government and the system of governors are working together to move America and it’s people through this very difficult situation with public health and other scientific leaders adding and inputting their advice into the system. And as such, as the DG just said, WHO advises our member states on what we believe to be rational policies, but governments themselves-

Dr. Michael J. Ryan: (34:03)
I believe to be irrational policies. But the governments themselves and especially in the United States with its superb public health, health, science and policy infrastructure is well-positioned to manage its own transition from the public health and social measures, and has to balance, as I’ve said before, the health issues associated with COVID, and the lives and livelihoods issues.

Dr. Michael J. Ryan: (34:28)
What we can say is that it’s important that I think there is a national plan. I think that has been very clearly laid out, a phased plan for a stepwise reduction in public health and social measures. That plan is driven by certain parameters of data. Like I mentioned before, a downward trajectory of cases, the availability of capacity in the health system and many others. As Maria said, it’s a multifaceted decision-making process. And that framework exists. And obviously, if that framework is being advised by top scientists at a federal level, then obviously it is a discussion with the state system as how best to introduce that.

Dr. Michael J. Ryan: (35:16)
But we believe that the overarching federal plan seems to be very much based on science and to the extent possible. And with all of the adaptations that are needed as we move forward, we hope that the US government and its people can move through that plan, work through day to day how to do that, and we’ll find a successful solution that reduces the impact on people’s lives and also on their livelihoods.

 

 

I agree with collaboration.  But with that comes forwardness and honesty to share data. You really think that only 80,000 people had this in China - a country 5 times more populated than the US?