RyanDe680

Decent recovery here. Temps jumped to 73 pretty quickly.

I wish IL would ramp up the antibody testing. I went for one, and it came back negative, but I wish more people would voluntarily go or have their physicians suggest such.

As a side note, up for some good training. Last time that happened I think was 2015 or 2016 for about 8-10 hours of just pounding rain.

National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 302 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 .SHORT TERM... 249 PM CDT Through Friday... Lingering showers and thunderstorms have diminished in coverage and exited to the east of the area this afternoon. Meanwhile, dew points have surged into the low to mid 60s across the area. The extensive cloud cover has limited surface warming somewhat, but current satellite trends suggest the cirrus beginning to thin which should help temperatures warm up into the low 70s across much of the area. An east-west oriented boundary has set up across southern Iowa into northern IL, combined with strengthening low level jet will set the stage for potential severe weather and heavy rain this evening and overnight. The primary corridor for severe weather has shifted south mainly along and south of I-80 where the better instability will be. Conditions are not as favorable as once thought thanks to the continued precip through the morning and early afternoon hours which has prevented the surface boundary from lifting as far north. In general, expecting things to begin in multi-cell clusters this evening and transition to a more linear mode and track off to the east. Primary severe weather threats will be strong winds on the leading edge of this line. Some hail may be possible with the stronger storms, especially at the onset and a QLCS tornado threat cannot be entirely ruled out. Of greater concern with this system is the potential for training thunderstorms resulting in flash flooding. The upwind Corfidi vectors for propagation into the inflow are light and even oriented to the northeast which suggests that redevelopment behind the leading edge of the line is possible resulting in heavy rain falling over the same areas for multiple hours. Current thinking and trends is that this will favor along and near the I-80 corridor. Have fielded a Flash Flood Watch to account for the potential for heavy rain. Wherever this ultimately sets up could see locally heavy rain amounts of 3-4+ inches of rain when this is all said and done. If the cold pool ends up being stronger it may be able to help push this out of the area more quickly reducing the flooding potential, but current thinking is this will be limited in its influence. Once overnight showers and thunderstorms move out Friday morning a mostly quiet day between systems. Temperatures are expected in the 70s, (60s closest to the lake). A lake breeze is expected to develop in the afternoon which will lead to quick cooling behind it. Aside from the severe weather and flooding threat, dense marine fog is expected across southern Lake Michigan through late morning tomorrow. Petr &&

I think the best chance for development remains in MO, with the ability to ride NE into central IL. Wouldn't be shocked to see the slight risk trimmed further south. CAPE isn't currently anywhere near substantial unless you are Springfield or south and the wind field is a mess. We're gonna ride an axis with a crap ton of rain though.

Classic case of how morning convection screws up the possibility for anything fun in the afternoon. Looks like a nighttime soaker.

Meanwhile in IL, no idea as to what any of the data means: https://patch.com/illinois/chicago/should-we-believe-gov-pritzkers-coronavirus-testing-statistics This was telling: "On May 12, for example, according to Chicago's data, about 31 percent of about 102,000 individuals tested positive for COVID-19. The state's data for the same day shows about 23 percent of more than 140,000 testing encounters in Chicago were positive."

morning convection never really a good thing for afternoon convection

good riddance winter. lock thread, move to warmth instead.

this is a great read: https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

True, but 2,400 positives with 20k tests means the same as 4,000 positives with 30k tests. Today was the worst day in terms of % positive.

IL with the daily chart topper. Very sad.

i know we are coming off a weekend, but lowest number of deaths and positive tests in 5 weeks for the country.

Interesting about this... ILI activity was very high in some areas in March - the harder hit areas. However now, this activity has really subsided. This doesn't only track the flu, but influenza like activity, which covid represents.... https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

Very excited for all of this.

As a side note, in IL, there have been a little over 11,000 cases in nursing homes (approx 15% of all cases) but yet have been responsible for nearly 33% of the deaths associated with this.

See, to say that covid isn’t the underlying cause of deaths to me is like saying that you lost money in the stock market in 2008 because stocks went down, not because of the underlying housing crisis. Cause and effect, no? if someone contracts the virus, ends up getting pneumonia and then passes away, would they have had pneumonia without the virus? (Underlying cause aside, because I know there are a decent amount of those)

interesting about the vitamin D. Would help depends the N vs S argument.

The problem is that that data may never be reported. if the suggestion that the antibodies last 10 weeks, we'll never know.

Ugh, not the artificial stock market crap again. The bottom line is that countries with the most wealth are typically not producing economies, they naturally become service oriented. It's supply and demand - if you could produce a glass for $5 here but another country makes the exact same glass for $3, as a business that is a no brainer. It's not the fault of the 'economy' but the fault of business if you want to place blame. The stock market is the way that the general population can value certain companies with no intermediary. We all individually have access to own these companies and during times of economic shock or stress, valuations never make sense. The common thread is that rationalization always plays out and fair valuation eventually comes out. The human psychology controls this, not an 'entity.'

As someone who manages money for a living, I wish everyone would think like that.

I think that the sad reality is that a strong amount of people do live beyond their means.

Meanwhile, IL reports the most cases in the country today....

I'm not sure what that has to do with it? No other country is influencing our reporting data. You're saying that China is light years behind us in terms of reporting or understanding data? Any ocean front property in Arizona for sale that I can buy?

I agree with collaboration. But with that comes forwardness and honesty to share data. You really think that only 80,000 people had this in China - a country 5 times more populated than the US?