RyanDe680

The real problem with Sweden’s approach is the general lack of knowledge around mutation. If this mutates similarly to the flu (only in terms of the viral replication and then mutation of the flu) then I don’t know how herd immunity would work.

https://covidtracking.com/data

what do we think of these guys? lots of flaws in this I think https://www.turnto23.com/news/coronavirus/video-interview-with-dr-dan-erickson-and-dr-artin-massihi-taken-down-from-youtube

Further complicating things - during the press conference yesterday, IL said that their Rt is at 1.2, while this (https://rt.live/) shows 0.88.

Interesting to see full sun and warming up so quickly. Used to the lousy starts with cloud cover and no time to recover.

The clorox gummies are not an option then?

OK now the opposite has happened and this has gotten a lot better. I guess I don't understand the data going in and coming out.

Also for anyone tracking this - the numbers have gotten worse. I can’t figure the explanation for that as well. https://rt.live/

Yes that’s what I can’t comprehend. I understand the higher rate of testing but why are the numbers still so high

This is the exact data we need. IL probably can’t afford to develop this, but I wonder how something like this compares to seasonal flu. That to me makes the determination as to the severity of this, given testing isn’t where it needs to be.

I can see that - but then how would you know that you’re actually bending the curve or if you are continuing to have population exposure. this is hard as I normally work with numbers but I hit a wall with modeling. Especially in a situation where the variable (the testing) continue to increase.

With regard to the herd immunity - Sweden has gone that route and has a 12% death rate. Granted that’s with testing less than 0.2% of the population.

He mentioned during some press conference this week (can't remember which) that the modeling did, but I don't think at that rate - something more in the 10k range. Still confusing to me how these number continue to go up despite the soon-to-be 6 week lock down on a virus that supposedly takes 14 days max to show symptoms. Something tells me that the 14 day thing is way off.

Just cases - Once that starts to decline then I would expect the number of deaths to follow within weeks.

So far today, the country is tracking below yesterday, which was below Sunday as well.

I find that hard to believe. No one is of course forthcoming on what 'models' these are based on but again, I can't understand why if we have been in lockdown for over 5 weeks now, thats 35 days. If this spreads for 14 days, whats going on with the continued rise in cases if we are 21 days past this. It has to be more than families passing it around. Hell, I have just been FaceTiming people. Illinois just needs to up the testing. Chicago is the 3rd biggest city in the country, yet we are behind Texas and Florida in testing?

The media will jump on this story... that is for a futures contract expiring tomorrow. It's basically saying that in 2 days, the value of oil won't be any higher than it was last week. If you look at crude oil, it's still in the $20s - granted that is still low, but the -$40 per barrel is just a ridiculous nonsense price .

This is great, thanks. Great way to see progress.

Sort of a dumb question I guess. Take IL for example - why would the number of cases continue to go up on a daily basis if we've been in lockdown for over a month, especially if this has a 14 day incubation? Is this just the spread at grocery stores and the like, or can this be that many asymptomatic people? What would cause an asymptomatic person to even get tested if the testing is so limited, according to every other article? I'm so confused on some of this stuff and I can come up with an explanation, but then I'm sitting here questioning myself...

So typical media - that’s an old photo. Drone photos from yesterday showed barely any people out there. Doesnt change the fact that their governor is still a moron.

that guy is a complete idiot. At 1,400 new cases a day down there how do you think that’s a good idea.

Yeah and that's the problem. With the lockdown 'the curve' may be flattened but is still substantial.

Yea but that is exactly my point - we only know about those that have sought medical care in order to get tested. The testing saga is a whole other discussion, but my point was that 0.2% of the population has sought to get tested because the symptoms may have been bad enough, not counting the (guessing) millions of those walking around not knowing that they have it or are carrying it.

While understanding the severity of the illness, one also has to look at the statistics. In the US at least, with 695k confirmed cases, that represents approximately 0.21% of the population. That is at least cases where people felt compelled to seek some type of medical attention. In consideration, I think that the way that we were 'going about' our lives is what will change as a result of this, at least for now. We can prove that this shut down can help to stem the evolution of this, however I think that it's how we act with the 're-opening' of things that determines where we go from here.

This is such a hot (mess) of a topic on social media that I just stay out of. Bottom line, I manage money for a living and the economic data that is going to come through over the next 3-6 month is going to be UGLY. I don't care what type of recovery (V, U, W, whatever) we go through, but the market will begin to reflect this much much earlier than the data suggests. Unemployment claims will slow and the Government will need to extend these extra payments out to help people. We as a society will act in certain ways just like we did after 9/11 and the subsequent years to follow. Remember though too that a vaccine won't be the perfect end-all, because we have a flu vaccine available now that is controversial as well. The hope should be that we find some type of remedy that eases the symptoms and stops the progression to prevent more serious illnesses. Progress seems to be gaining ground there...