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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    DCA lost .15" of QPF
  2. NorthArlington101
    12z 6z
  3. NorthArlington101
    more like drier DC south
  4. NorthArlington101
    True, but I can count on my hands the times ratios have saved me. I'd rather not be counting on them tbh. Nice bonus but I'm pretty positive when @MN Transplant checks the SLR in the morning around the Beltway it'll be like 8:1 lol
  5. NorthArlington101
    3" is kind of my over/under around D.C., and this is the under, thus I reject it. My comfort is that UKIE maps suck on Pivotal. Possible there is more snow here than it shows. Or less
  6. NorthArlington101
    Good thing these trends didn’t pan out for the last storm, which really went exactly as we thought 12 hours out
  7. NorthArlington101
    Gotta always share the Reasonable "Worst Case" too
  8. NorthArlington101
    What I think I’ve picked up over the past day is that Kuchera heavily weights ground temps in its formula. There are “other” ways to try and calculate it, and some of the better Mets think they’ll be higher. I’m expecting 8:1 as always seems to actually fall. Rates never save anyone in the Beltway… but maybe some folks will do better.
  9. NorthArlington101
    I think the Pivotal maps might've got to the end... but here are the WxBell ones. 12k Kuchera 3k Kuchera
  10. NorthArlington101
    Run isn't done on WxBell yet... but it's nice.
  11. NorthArlington101
    Kuchera 10:1
  12. NorthArlington101
    Meh. I mean we’re talking a difference of 0.05” here and there. We won’t know til after it hits. How many rainstorms are off by a tenth here or there, unfortunately
  13. NorthArlington101
    Pushed back south… north is the failure mode for DC so I’m happy. But worse for MD/PA border. If the dual banding thing is real someone will definitely “lose.” Just hoping the loser still gets enough to cover the grass (2”)
  14. NorthArlington101
    While I’m posting tweets… the GRAF lol https://x.com/miketfox5/status/1758288335070740559?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktg
  15. NorthArlington101
    https://x.com/wxmvpete/status/1758305044875587626?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktg
  16. NorthArlington101
    10:1 allows people to make their assumptions, but fair. If you really want to know
  17. NorthArlington101
    where we want it
  18. NorthArlington101
    yeah, was coming on to say the RGEM looked good enough for D.C... likely unhappy if you are elsewhere.. The high-res version was nice at 12z too... 3+ for most.
  19. NorthArlington101
    Our seasonal south trend will save us. Or the fact that it's only the ICON. Idk which yet
  20. NorthArlington101
    I can’t remember the last time @MN Transplant reported in his ratios and we had more than 10:1 in and around the Beltway. That may because I have a godawful memory but I’m never counting on more than 10:1… and should probably be expecting worse.
  21. NorthArlington101
    https://x.com/accurayno/status/1758228497028219199?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktg
  22. NorthArlington101
    Didn’t you read above? PSU just promised everyone a SECS
  23. NorthArlington101
    I loved seeing the EURO pick up on the idea that ratios might be better than 10:1. Everything else has had a Kuchera map that’s been worse lol
  24. NorthArlington101
    10:1 Kuchera
  25. NorthArlington101
    weathermodels.com has good UKMET maps. But I can’t support them because I found out the owner of that project blocked me on Twitter when I’d never talked to them… lol. Guilt by association I guess
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