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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    thank whatever you believe in this is overnight. Would be infuriating during the day
  2. NorthArlington101
    It looks a lot like it's last run but drier. At least we get raked for a few hours. This all basically falls in a 3-hour span
  3. NorthArlington101
    10:1 Kuchera
  4. NorthArlington101
    eh... maybe just drier. Apologies for the miscall.
  5. NorthArlington101
    12k NAM is north and drier
  6. NorthArlington101
    WxBell has it as rain or what must be very wet snow... no sleet
  7. NorthArlington101
    did anyone post the FV3 hi-res earlier?
  8. NorthArlington101
    well then I'm glad the automated tool that did well in January is beefing up! But good to know, seriously.
  9. NorthArlington101
    For all the jokes about late warnings they did well in January. Excited to see them optimistic.
  10. NorthArlington101
    this is one I’m ditching downtown for to gain my 360” of elevation in Arlington back. And like an extra 2 miles north. I was kinda hoping to ride it out downtown but as I said earlier I’m spooked
  11. NorthArlington101
    Soon as CWG puts out their bullish map. That 12z run is OK but we're running out of wiggle. I'm officially spooked
  12. NorthArlington101
    DCA lost .15" of QPF
  13. NorthArlington101
    12z 6z
  14. NorthArlington101
    more like drier DC south
  15. NorthArlington101
    True, but I can count on my hands the times ratios have saved me. I'd rather not be counting on them tbh. Nice bonus but I'm pretty positive when @MN Transplant checks the SLR in the morning around the Beltway it'll be like 8:1 lol
  16. NorthArlington101
    3" is kind of my over/under around D.C., and this is the under, thus I reject it. My comfort is that UKIE maps suck on Pivotal. Possible there is more snow here than it shows. Or less
  17. NorthArlington101
    Good thing these trends didn’t pan out for the last storm, which really went exactly as we thought 12 hours out
  18. NorthArlington101
    Gotta always share the Reasonable "Worst Case" too
  19. NorthArlington101
    What I think I’ve picked up over the past day is that Kuchera heavily weights ground temps in its formula. There are “other” ways to try and calculate it, and some of the better Mets think they’ll be higher. I’m expecting 8:1 as always seems to actually fall. Rates never save anyone in the Beltway… but maybe some folks will do better.
  20. NorthArlington101
    I think the Pivotal maps might've got to the end... but here are the WxBell ones. 12k Kuchera 3k Kuchera
  21. NorthArlington101
    Run isn't done on WxBell yet... but it's nice.
  22. NorthArlington101
    Kuchera 10:1
  23. NorthArlington101
    Meh. I mean we’re talking a difference of 0.05” here and there. We won’t know til after it hits. How many rainstorms are off by a tenth here or there, unfortunately
  24. NorthArlington101
    Pushed back south… north is the failure mode for DC so I’m happy. But worse for MD/PA border. If the dual banding thing is real someone will definitely “lose.” Just hoping the loser still gets enough to cover the grass (2”)
  25. NorthArlington101
    While I’m posting tweets… the GRAF lol https://x.com/miketfox5/status/1758288335070740559?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktg
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