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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    Partially to preserve my own sanity and grind expectations low, but yeah, kinda because of the NAM. Also matches the EURO as far as snow goes, really, perhaps a tad more conservative. I guess the sleet would probably make my map wrong but I'll never really count that as snow even if you are supposed to
  2. NorthArlington101
    Last negative nancy post then I'll try and dial it in - we keep pushing this storm back. It was a Friday night storm at one point! Now we're not really getting going til after midnight, and even then we don't seem to get rates til maybe 4am. Really, really, annoying.
  3. NorthArlington101
    I'd probably add 1" to this and call it my forecast map atp for the most part. Ignoring far western zones and mountains.
  4. NorthArlington101
    Crashouts? Who, me?
  5. NorthArlington101
    FV3 is sexy and I can tell it's at least trying to filter out pure freezing rain. Dunno how it treats sleet. I'll pretend this was the NAM.
  6. NorthArlington101
    Clearly the NWS wouldn't but I'm still happy to be concerned about it. Hate the NAM but when it stubbornly puts out a red flag we should usually pay attention.
  7. NorthArlington101
    Nobody also tops 10:1 rates of .5"/hr on the 3k. It's not really a thump.
  8. NorthArlington101
    I mean here is why I'm not happy regardless of whatever anyone says. Seeing the cushion to the SE of DC erode. We've still got like a day for this to fully evaporate. Doesn't work for me
  9. NorthArlington101
    I guess but if it's gonna race the sleet line up faster it comes out in the wash
  10. NorthArlington101
    3k doesn't really look better to me. We hope and pray it's wrong. Starting down the barrel of less than warning criteria snow DC-south at this point.
  11. NorthArlington101
  12. NorthArlington101
    Yeah, this 12k run isn't really any better. Prefer to see what the 3k has to say but this was the range yesterday I said I'd start to care about it. Really hoping it's wrong.
  13. NorthArlington101
    I'm honestly not that impressed - looks like .17" of precip for DCA from 42-45? We need more
  14. NorthArlington101
    meh - next panel critical
  15. NorthArlington101
    It is interesting that the HRRR models 850 as the more aggressive warm nose. Guess that would be worse for FRZA because there is less time for it to refreeze? Probably also not worth overanalyzing.
  16. NorthArlington101
    Believe this does include sleet, based on previous discussions in here.
  17. NorthArlington101
    Feel like it’s EURO without the ability to discern sleet/snow/FRZA
  18. NorthArlington101
    This may age pretty well
  19. NorthArlington101
    Fair - WxBell 10:1 maps have about half of that so I guess it likes the ratios, which isn’t crazy. Probably over analyzing the FV3 at this point. I’ll say you win
  20. NorthArlington101
    I may have blinked and missed things today but I thought we were supposed to wake up to more than 2” at 6am. I’m willing to cave to being wrong, though. Guess every flake sticks even if it’s not heavy from midnight-6.
  21. NorthArlington101
    It would probably be fine but it barely starts in DC until like 6am. Storm is gonna start Monday at this rate. This was supposed to start tomorrow night at one point!
  22. NorthArlington101
    3k precip through 7am is anemic. Jeez.
  23. NorthArlington101
    Unfortunately the ens seemingly can’t factor sleet/snow. Still a lot of total wintry precip
  24. NorthArlington101
    Thanks to @nw baltimore wx and @nj2va for joining me for a happy hour! Always nice to meet more folks. Cheers to all models caving to the GFS
  25. NorthArlington101
    Post was in reference to a digital snow run that had 4” of sleet and not a lot of snow. 7 days ago that was an epic fantasy run. Now we’re all mad about it (not all, but ya know)
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