NorthArlington101
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Everything posted by NorthArlington101
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It’s obviously not mid-winter like last year, so take that caveat as you will, but we had two ice storms last year that accreted at 34/35 degrees. If we get a base down early enough things can get slick.
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FV3 is a pounding for I-81. Never goes above freezing. Areas of solid 1.5"/1.75" of precip out west where it never goes above freezing. Sleet/FRZA hellscape. Even pretty damn close here in Charlottesville, where we get 1.25-1.5" without going above freezing
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Latest GFS strengthened the high (1040) and put it in a better position while moving precip in the area faster. Nice tiny little changes that will hopefully continue to add up.
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Anyone know what the standard ratio for sleet is? RGEM just absolutely whacked parts of Virginia with sleet/ice. ~.75" frozen in Cville but I don't think any of it was snow.
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Snow depth map vs. the 10-1 is just crazy in how different it is. Could be a lot of frozen precip (i.e., sleet, frza) on top of any snow. Depth: 10:1
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I don't think this will embed... 1hr EURO intervals: https://imgur.com/01uUKbY
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EPS mean. Ever-so-slighty a step back from 0z by a factor of about ~.5" when looking at the DC Metro.
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Ah, Charlottesville. Not west enough to be in the mountains and get snow, not north enough to hold onto CAD for a long time and get snow, not east enough to get the best influence of a coastal. Should’ve gone to JMU, or Minnesota. [emoji6]
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UKMET not as good. More north.
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@yoda I think you had asked for this.
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RGEM did seem to have a cold bias last year, but what it's doing at 12z doesn't look unreasonable. Definitely sleety.
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3k Ferrier map.
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Before we get fooled by the 3k, NAM and it’s 10:1 map, a friendly reminder that the 3k and 12k both have a positive snow depth map.
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I don’t feel like we’ve referenced the 32k in years. I genuinely think the first time we brought it up in a long tine was yesterday.
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So gonna post the 10:1 map and the Kuchera because they both have uses... part of the difference between them is going to be the amount of FRZA/sleet so I feel like it’s fair to show both. Either way, WOW. Not happy to not be in NOVA. not staying up for the EPS unless I can’t fall asleep, someone else can take the wheel
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Damn, DC (Fredericksburg N) mixes and probably flips back to snow at the end with the deform band... *cries in Charlottesville*
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EURO ups the ante. Ripping just north of DCA at 72, DC probably just flipped to rain... 4-5” via 10:1 map, I’ll post the kuchera at the end
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Snowing in DCA at 60. Freezing line out past FFX county down to CHO & west, as well as N and Central MD.
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EURO is a hair faster at 0z, good change.
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00z UKMET, an improvement over 12z
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UKIE looks like a slam dunk again, waiting for someone smarter or a snow map to confirm.
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Definitely lots of ice mixed in but still, NSFW image
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FV3 is colder, probably a period of snow for most before it flip to sleet/FRZA. GEFS rolling in now too, ICEP rolls in between 54-60z from SW to NE.
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That is an ideal NAM run. Wintery mix than shutoff before we get a chance at the deform band. I like it. Only change I would make is having more snow before the sleet/FRZA mess (or just all snow).
