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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    CMC zoomed-in totals.
  2. NorthArlington101
    For posterity, the 12z GEFS. About a 2" jump on the snow mean.
  3. NorthArlington101
    GEFS snow mean notably ticked upwards. Looks colder. That said... I’m still out. [emoji6] Looking closer, it’s skewed by six/seven members. Nice to see a boom scenario in there I guess but hard to call the GEFS too enthused.
  4. NorthArlington101
    I guarantee that if the storm thread for the 25th was closed the models would shift better today.
  5. NorthArlington101
    I don’t want to speak for everyone else but my spirit is somewhat broken. Call me when it’s 6 hours out.
  6. NorthArlington101
    The cicadas in 2004 are some of my earliest memories. Was a lot of fun as a 4 year old. Not sure how I’ll feel this year as a 21 year old. Doubt I let them crawl all over me this time.
  7. NorthArlington101
    I guess verbatim it might end up similar to previous runs. some "ice" and then it wouldn't shock me if it pulls off snow at the end. least this storm is speeding up slightly every run. the pain will be over soon.
  8. NorthArlington101
    38 and rain is better than 32 and rain
  9. NorthArlington101
    all the makings of a disaster? semi /s but I've pulled out all my stocks on the first storm. everything I've got left is in the second one.
  10. NorthArlington101
    Not an in-depth analysis or anything but the 18z EPS looks warmer and maybe slightly more amped. Snow mean reflects that.
  11. NorthArlington101
    Talk about a narrow area that wins. Geez.
  12. NorthArlington101
    00z EURO looks to be an alright run but it's mighty close. Looks like rates save the day.
  13. NorthArlington101
    Step in the right direction from 12z though, no?
  14. NorthArlington101
    poor psu
  15. NorthArlington101
    bouta say, I might prefer the OG GFS. I'm just choosing to believe @psuhoffman and am running with the idea that the middle is a happy place to be.
  16. NorthArlington101
  17. NorthArlington101
  18. NorthArlington101
    I agree in principle, but when you can't find at least one winner among all the GEFS members and there are a decent handful of stinkers in the 12z EPS (and now more in the 18z), I tend to align (perhaps incorrectly) with the more "consistent" guidance. I realize the GFS/GEFS has been inconsistent in why it's bad for us, but it's always bad for us.
  19. NorthArlington101
    I'm not in love with these maps, but they clearly demonstrate that the look ain't getting better. 18z 12z 00z It ain't over by any means, but it's not good.
  20. NorthArlington101
    FWIW, no idea how the GEPS performs, but it also says no and most of its members have shown nada for its past four runs. Which is interesting since the Canadian had been somewhat in on this storm. It's 00z and yesterdays 12z and 00z would be outliers among its members.
  21. NorthArlington101
    That's true... but I'm inclined to believe the GFS/GEFS and the 20% of EPS members that equally suck. I'm going for pessimism here -- trying a new strategy.
  22. NorthArlington101
    GEFS has a signal but it's not great. Could argue its #rightwherewewant it though.
  23. NorthArlington101
    This speaks for itself, lol.
  24. NorthArlington101
    Hah, we clearly disagree. I’m gonna defer to you though. I’m sure you’re better at this.
  25. NorthArlington101
    Fair enough. It’s definitely chiller than the OP. But don’t think it was an improvement over 06z, which was actually a better mean than 00z handwringing over the Control aside.
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