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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    Depends on the model right now. EURO would say you'd be dealing with ice on top of 4", PARA says it would've flipped to rain by that point so the ice on top of the 4" might be sorta out of the way (though roads still probably not great), original GFS says it would've been rained away, and ICON says you'll never leave your house again. In sum... too early to know, Friday morning being icy is well within the realm of possibility.
  2. NorthArlington101
    GEFS got colder/snowier. 18z 12z
  3. NorthArlington101
    Para GFS showing off it's new and improved CAD skills. vs. the old GFS
  4. NorthArlington101
    I know we brought up ICON but this is a snow/ice disaster. that's all frozen anywhere where temps are 32 or lower here. historically bad ice storm for VA/NC/SC
  5. NorthArlington101
    I don't think it would be mitigated by rates for at least the first 6-12 hours of the storm. It's a little chilly.
  6. NorthArlington101
  7. NorthArlington101
    Details I don't understand aside there is definitely support for this starting with a period of snow. Interesting stuff.
  8. NorthArlington101
    Trees are melting off so fast it seems like it’s raining. Snow on most surfaces has been turned into a glacier though so I suspect I get at least another day with snow cover. Still a winter wonderland down in Charlottesville.
  9. NorthArlington101
    Maybe its not going to be low 30s trust me, kinda hope it isn't. i didn't get upgraded to an ISW so I'm ready to try again.
  10. NorthArlington101
    had to share cause I thought it was funny... probably a legit ice storm in the blue ridge but in most places where people actually live a lot of this is during daylight and temps are only low 30s, so color me skeptical it would accrete that bad.
  11. NorthArlington101
    With 850s getting that toasty no shot this ever is snow for long but good trend I suppose. Little more CAD and this is a historic ice storm.
  12. NorthArlington101
    @Ji savor it while it lasts
  13. NorthArlington101
    This one is coming back. I can feel it.
  14. NorthArlington101
    Fully ice in Charlottesville, which still makes me wonder why we have the WSW with non-mixed precip and others have the ISW with mixed-precip.
  15. NorthArlington101
    Not crazy icy in CHO but trees and plants definitely have a glaze on them. Cars very icy. Snow has been glacierized.
  16. NorthArlington101
    Maybe slightly cooler but it looks essentially identical to 00z from my quick glance.
  17. NorthArlington101
    Roads are fine in Charlottesville but sidewalks and trees are heavily glazed. 30 degrees.
  18. NorthArlington101
    Real icy in CHO.
  19. NorthArlington101
    Rooting for another 1-2” inches for everyone but Richmond. Seems doable.
  20. NorthArlington101
    PARA and the HRRR both have this as a little bit of snow for the favored spots. Warm nose must really be less impressive than initially modeled. Not even favored areas, actually. Take this as you will. edit: RAP also agrees
  21. NorthArlington101
    ^ luckily it flips itself to rain on the way out so it wouldn't be awful but that would accrete everywhere verbatim.
  22. NorthArlington101
    Thursday is a really bad ice storm as depicted. Surface is frozen.
  23. NorthArlington101
    Yeah, I don't mean to minimize the threat that ice poses! I do like to root for interesting weather (that isn't tornadoes or wind) though, so I'm slightly disappointed when the numbers are lower. Totally understand the danger remains.
  24. NorthArlington101
    Yeah, not too much to speak of. Slightly drier.
  25. NorthArlington101
    Looks like about .4" of sleet and barely any FRZA. So mostly a sleet storm. I mostly noted it because it's got quite a wide swath of sleet.
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