NorthArlington101

The folks I follow aren’t fans. Haven’t bothered to check his credentials myself. Assume he has to know a little bit about what he’s talking about, though that hardly means he’s a good actor.

00z GFS has the 9th-10th storm - pretty solid hit especially for the central parts of the area.

Went back and tweaked my first guess (upward), FYI. Best of luck to everyone!

I’ll be that guy too - first ever work trip is on the 8th/9th, so sorta rooting against our first window here. Good thing it’s always the storm-after-the-storm that pulls through.

Super late reply -- I'm not Jacob, though Jacob is great! Most recent article I did was the Ryan Hall one, for those who want to stalk me. Less time to write now that I'm employed elsewhere.

The 12z GFS made a *slight* shift towards a stormier outcome for Black Friday, lol.

It’s sad seeing a stretch of snow squall warnings to the north and west and knowing they aren’t gonna make it, haha.

Seeing an mPING snow report near Columbia, any reports from in the stuff up a bit more north? Assuming it has to be wintry precip of some kind.

Gotta love the 00z GFS spitting out a Cat 4/5 hurricane in the Caribbean within the first week of December. Probably more likely than seeing 1” of snow at DCA by Dec. 5.

Kind of a snow game on TV? Nice flurries at least.

Great memory you've got there! I'll never quite forgive myself for that one... needed to have my own car freshman year so I could've pivoted back down to Cville.

I don't think I've ever actually looked at the Veterans Day '87 snow map... that would've been a fun one on this board.

Couple models drop a dusting in parts of MD Friday afternoon. Something short-term to watch. I'd love to see some flurries.

for posterity

Looking at exact P-Type maps for a moment (yes, bad idea, I know @CAPE ) it's verbatim a very close swing and a miss. Still first wintry precip for many, ignoring random sleet or flurries.

I don't know much, but a few weeks later I imagine this would be really exciting.

Since I now have a real job that can largely be done remotely, I’m gonna have to start eyeing chasing some of these snowstorms in the future, especially if things get dire locally. Any obvious chasing tips? My job doesn’t allow me quite the amount of flexibility that one might need to chase these events, but my concern is always dumb stuff, like getting stuck in the mountains if I’m running to Snowshoe chasing 2’ of snow that would’ve been 2” in Arlington.

Not really a met for our area but Tomer is a good guy. Something to track at least, as others have said.

Peaked at it and it’s because one member shows a HECS - around 20” for DCA. Minus that all you can see is the potential for something.

Seems to be just rain in my (new) Courthouse location in Arlington. Maybe heavier returns will allow me to record a sketchy trace of sleet.

Sadly, I’ll take the under

Both very fair -- the reason I choose to post the snow maps here vs. there is that I think posting them here starts a discussion on whether the threat has any merit, whereas posting them in the digital snow thread dooms them to never really be discussed. It may be generous to call the Day 7/8 storm a threat, but the period has been showing up for ~4 days as a window for some kind of storm, so what I'm *hoping* to do is spark discussion of the period... I'm a sicko who enjoys the leadup more than the actual event, unless it's a blizzard.

Nothing about the 06z? Better result at Day 7 with a similar set-up -- first flakes+ for favored spots. 00z EURO has the first snowstorm for the mountains but little for anyone else. EPS members have a handful that are decent and the control is an event for those out west.

Not really that close haha but a mix for the mountains. Warming up for mediocre winter analysis.