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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    This post finally radicalized me. Canceled my WxBell subscription and am becoming a severe weenie.
  2. NorthArlington101
    tbf - part of the problem is that this coastal is simply nothing impressive. 850s are fine but surface temps aren't great - would certaintly be helpful if precip was actually heavy. Should it be snow with any real cold? Probably. But not like we're getting soaked by a majority of members. Just trust me that the other half look like this too.
  3. NorthArlington101
    I guess it doesn't include *all* of Wave 2, but that's most of it. Snow mean might tick up a tenth or two in our far N/NW spots, but that's the coastal.
  4. NorthArlington101
    Unfortunately it doesn't work, see psu post above. Just not cold enough. Not an impressive mean
  5. NorthArlington101
    Unfortunately more models look like the GFS than the EURO. I’m definitely not counting on storm #1
  6. NorthArlington101
    GFS is no EURO but it has a little bit of snow for favored spots Saturday night.
  7. NorthArlington101
    FWIW - if I understand percentiles correctly (which I may not) the EPS says a good chunk of people should at least see snow Saturday-Sunday, which is a horrifically low bar but we don't have much. This is the 10th percentile map, so a bottom 10% situation when all the ens are considered. If people want I'd share other maps but want to avoid too much clutter
  8. NorthArlington101
    individual members have it but largely too warm but for our favored areas - better shot for you prob - though still nice and interesting in the medium range
  9. NorthArlington101
    Last 5 runs of the EPS for storm #1 - current output would be the best storm of the season for most. Was trending downhill til this last run so we'll have to see if there is something real.
  10. NorthArlington101
    Don't think this GFS run will get it done - some very light snow at 99 in the favored spots but that h5 pass needs to be further south. Good difference between the GFS/Euro (the latter of which is barely enough) still at this point.
  11. NorthArlington101
    I don’t get snow clown maps but the 540 line and 850s look ok the whole time
  12. NorthArlington101
    Just a little wet
  13. NorthArlington101
    168 looks promising
  14. NorthArlington101
    while we wait
  15. NorthArlington101
    It's loading the blizzard like the GFS was earlier
  16. NorthArlington101
    snowing at 111 - light snow into DC, little heavier to the west. Marginal though Rates make it happen a bit at 117 - but as @psuhoffmanalluded to temps are hardly great
  17. NorthArlington101
    hmmm
  18. NorthArlington101
    Yep, that was it. There was also an EPS Control run that gave us an areawide 6-12" on May 11. Must've been ridiculously anomalously cold.
  19. NorthArlington101
    We had a May "threat" last til' NAM range back in 2020. Can dig up the old images but we got teased really, really late.
  20. NorthArlington101
    That looks really, really good imo. Fine place to be 6/7 days out.
  21. NorthArlington101
    Not that it matters much, but a lot of those misses north are today/tomorrow's storm still showing up on the means/individual members.
  22. NorthArlington101
    just fun to look - agree the massive takeaway is that the ens are substantially improved.
  23. NorthArlington101
    About every possible outcome in the book - which isn't surprising, I suppose.
  24. NorthArlington101
    Wow, didn't even notice that. What a wicked signal on an ens mean. Might be the most snow I've ever seen on an ens mean not in the mountains. edit: guess half of this is from a storm tomorrow that I somehow didn't notice they were having. Still nuts.
  25. NorthArlington101
    I've been waiting patiently for this run to load on WxBell but this run seems to have broken the site. Oh well.
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