BoulderWX

Yup. Not just bad forecasting on amounts but timing. This has one - two hours left for Morris county

Turned out my QPF concern was right all along. We’ll be luck to hit .20”

Places in Long Island will bust high, almost all of NJ will bust low. It happens. dumping snow but back edge is so close. Not one model had this done by 9 which it will be at this rate

Radar looks atrocious. Like you said, I could easily see this over by midnight.

At this rate even the NAM will be too high for MBY LOL - will be tough to hit 2/3” at this rate

I thought 3-6 was realistic and I’ll be the first to admit I was wrong. Congratulations to all who cash in!

Cooked? It’s weather lol…

All sleet and freezing rain in Morristown.

I was wrong. Heavy sleet and snow right now

Back to almost all snow in Morristown. With you on the sledding. That’s the only metric I care about.

Confirming the same in Morristown. All sleet at the moment

First flakes and ice pellets started in Morristown

nothing in Morristown despite good radar returns.

Sleet is fine. But hoping nobody gets into a freezing rain situation.

Nothing at MMU yet but getting under heavier returns so hopefully breaks through.

Where are you located? I want it to be right too lol

Great map and explanation; aligned with this

Keeps reducing to talks to our area but I’ll gladly take the 4.5” verbatim

My Holly stays the course..was thinking they’d go 3-6 in their latest pacemaker URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 125 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025 NJZ001-008-270900- /O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-251227T1500Z/ Sussex-Morris- Including the cities of Morristown and Newton 125 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Snow and sleet accumulations between 5 and 8 inches. Local amounts up to 10 inches possible. * WHERE...Morris and Sussex Counties. * WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Saturday.

Might as well hold off on any more cave talk since we will have a clear answer in about 14 hours 26/3 - Mostly Cloudy

For sure. Went from 0.8 QPF to 0.4 in two HRRR Runs. as you said it will bounce around but it will be a relatively thin band of 0.8-1.0QPF IMO with a more general 0.4-0.6 for most. Mesos have much spottier precip compared to globals as I said yesterday I’ve always been more concerned about QPF than I am about too much mixing 21/7

Oh it’s in the mix of guidance, I use all of it though, not just one model which the OP does all the time. I know I’m gonna get mixing, that’s for sure - it’s just how much and I think the NAM is still clearly playing catch up

In all fairness the NAM has handled the storm terribly. I wouldn’t be hanging my hat on that. I have no dog in this fight as I’m not in NYC but I think they do very well (5+) with this setup.

This is going to be a brutal borderline to ride. I wouldn’t be surprised with 2 or 6” and were less than twelve hours out.

It was great for NYC - like 8-10 @10:1