radarman

~1" since 5/1

Not sure if you saw that rogue tower that went up over Granby yesterday... didn't move an inch.

Was driving S earlier on 128 through Belmont, Lexington into Waltham and down to the Pike in a deluge. Left 2.5 lanes had to merge all the way right at one point with about a foot of water on the road. Every underpass had cars and/or motorcycles stopped underneath.

63MPH gust at DFW. First notable mesoscale system in seemingly weeks for the metroplex

43 here but the breeze didn't completely slacken.

picked up a much appreciated 1/2" at UMass

Also just got Shifts mounted on Icelantic natural 111s and a pair of Scarpa Maestrale XTs. And have yet to use em (thanks covid!)

Treehouse probably getting some big gusts

Maybe just post it... Then delete afterward?

Solid soak

BTW Happy 10th anniversary of one of our all time severe wx fails.

Sounds like we're getting an upgrade to slight risk. KOD?

34 at CEF ties a record from 1967.

18z 3km is a little more vigorous with the line tonight. Keeps it going even as surface based instability wanes.

At UMass, 1.9". Of that 1.15" fell on 5/1. And another .4" in about 15 minutes on 5/15 with the line of thunderstorms, some of which runs off when falling so fast. Only .1" in the last 2 weeks.

Semi agree. Seemingly not a year goes by when the local paper isn't quoting a farmer blaming climate change for whatever the most recent conditions are, as though the 'right mix' year you describe used to be the norm. But the fact is that it's been one of the driest Mays on record, with a quite a bit of sun and low dews (save the last few days) and more en route. So they'll be hurting and the fact it isn't a threat to the public water supply in metro boston is irrelevant.

Drought affects farmers on short time scales, and they struggle to make ends meet year to year. Too wet, too dry, etc. Granted, they signed up for it to a certain extent in the fickle weather of SNE. But it is a big deal out here, particularly this year. The cities probably don't care.

Even this far west seems borderline. I don't even care if a line rapidly weakens with loss of daytime heating, if it can just push through enough to give us a drink. Or maybe we can get lucky with a quick hit convective shower as the HRRR sort of puts in play.

Just a gut feeling but it's a little early for fronts to be hanging up and training I think, especially with this bully airmass that'll be dropping in. I think it'll push through a little faster than progged with an attendant wind threat. If it does stay back we'd at least have a shot at something discrete popping out ahead during the afternoon, which we always say... For whatever it's worth.

maybe can't rule out some kind of popcorn pulsers with enough solar insolation and totally uncapped. Big fat rain drops that so look like they want to flip to hail, but then don't. Anyway, we can still cheer on hopes for a marginally severe line on Friday in the meantime.

Pretty strongly worded AFD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 206 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2020 .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY/ THE OVERNIGHT PLAINS CONVECTION MADE A RUN AT NORTH TEXAS, BUT ALL THAT REMAINS IS A STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO DENTON TO BONHAM. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS GRAVITY WAVES CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CUMULUS FIELD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS, WHICH IS A SIGN OF A VERY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. THIS INVERSION IS VERIFIED ON RECENT AMDAR SOUNDINGS, AND WE'LL BE SENDING UP A BALLOON WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO TO SAMPLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE THERMODYNAMIC AND MOISTURE PROFILE. OBVIOUSLY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE AN IMPORTANT MESOSCALE FEATURE THAT WILL IMPACT NOT ONLY CONVECTIVE INITIATION, BUT ALSO STORM MODE AND HAZARDS. THE BACKING OF WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY HAS SERVED TO INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES NOTABLY, RESULTING IN AN ENVIRONMENT NOW SUPPORTIVE OF PROLONGED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES NEAR AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE INSOLATION HAS BEEN EXCELLENT ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH MLCAPE LIKELY TO EXCEED 3500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND PREDICTION OF SLOW EASTWARD RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS, IT IS LIKELY THAT ACTUAL SUPERCELL MOTIONS WILL BE EVEN MORE RIGHTWARD OR DUE SOUTH. THIS IS IMPORTANT AS IT WILL IMPACT THE STORM COVERAGE AND EVOLUTION. IN THE LAST FEW HOURS WE'VE SEEN THE HRRR TREND TOWARD MORE SUPERCELLULAR COVERAGE WHICH IS INHERENTLY MORE SCATTERED AND THEREFORE SUGGESTS LESS STORM COVERAGE THAN A MULTICELL CLUSTER OR LINE WOULD HAVE PRODUCED. THIS MORE SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE IS ALSO VERIFIED BY THE WOFS WHICH IS HIGHLIGHTING THE SUPERCELL THREAT PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES OVER THE NEXT 4 HOURS WHERE WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW FAILED ATTEMPTS AT INITIATION. SINCE MATURE STORM MOTION MAY TEND TO TAKE IT SOUTHWARD, IT MAY BE A WHILE BEFORE STORMS CAN INITIATE FARTHER EAST (EAST OF I-35/I-35E AND NORTH OF I-30) WHERE STORM COVERAGE IS MORE IN QUESTION. SPC HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 8 PM. WE'VE AGREED TO WATCH HOW TRENDS EVOLVE BEFORE GOING TOO FAR EAST WITH A WATCH. LIKEWISE WE'RE CONCERNED THAT THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AROUND SUNSET, SO THIS WATCH EXPIRING AT 8 PM ALLOWS AN ASSESSMENT OF THOSE TRENDS THIS EVENING. FOR NOW THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS LIKE VERY LARGE HAIL - POSSIBLY UP TO BASEBALL SIZE - AS WE ANTICIPATE THAT WE'LL HAVE MORE SUSTAINED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES THAN WE WERE EARLIER. GIVEN THE ALREADY SLOW MOTION OF SUPERCELLS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME NEARLY STATIONARY OR STALLED CELLS EITHER WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED MULTI-INCH RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING. BY THIS EVENING WE DO EXPECT MORE COVERAGE OF STORMS AND EVENTUALLY ENOUGH OF A COLD POOL SHOULD DEVELOP TO HELP SEND CELLS SOUTHEASTWARD EITHER AS A MULTICELL CLUSTER OR BROKEN LINE. THE EVENING HOURS PROBABLY REPRESENT MOST OF THE DFW METROPLEX'S BEST SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF I-20 BY MIDNIGHT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS, BUT THE INTENSITY/COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE. THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF I-20, AS THIS IS ADVERTISED BY A COUPLE OF THE MODELS. SO WE CAN'T SAY FOR SURE THAT ONCE THE FIRST ROUND MOVES THROUGH THAT NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE DONE WITH THE EVENT. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE WORKED OVER FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS ON SATURDAY AND HAVE KEPT POPS LOW BUT ADVERTISED LOTS OF CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S BUT IT SHOULD BE VERY MUGGY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING. TR.92

Quabbin allowing for boats as of tomorrow, but NOT renting boats. Which sucks for those of us without a boat.

Mt. Ascutney might be in the running.