radarman
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Everything posted by radarman
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the 3km nam snakes some really dry air down the valley which seems unrealistic compared to the other models. May at least partially explain the sharp cutoff. -
if they ever retire the nam I'm pulling a Jan 6th on ncep
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even if it's just a hair worse aloft, I like the earlier blossoming of the precip shield back this way.
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not saying you are wrong, but that's not a good way to communicate risk. Fortunately, I doubt anyone pays attention to those maps.
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12z overall takeaways less dragging the energy out of the sw better northern stream phasing maybe a little less confluence unclear surface structure
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give me that h5 and I'll take my chances with the surface
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I think Newport jackpotted 12/7/81. Push it back to 2031.
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Also, esp in the Berks they'll likely start snowing tomorrow night and snow off and on til Sunday with the approaching n stream dynamics and the available moisture. Hi ratio stuff too. I'm thinking 3-6" anyway even if the slp happened to go well east. Nam has been bullish on the convective processes, which we like to see.
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Gefs mean is pretty well skewed by its far east members that I think can be safely tossed. Good clustering to the west.
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What would a great event be without a nammy run like that? This is why we're here. At least me
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yeah the coastal peeps can keep it. Give me PDII, straight down.
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Jan 2011 was quite good in the valley albeit ramping up going east. Anyway, such is our climo, we get a little cut of action to the west and to the east with the occasional planetary alignment megaband.
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Good skating as well
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It's been pretty cold here too, probably -2 for Jan. Most pond ice is 8-12" thick even at the valley bottoms. Anyway these three were enjoying it and I was happy for them.
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Love to see nammy bullish on the dynamic snows out ahead. Let the others figure out the phase.
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that's awesome Since it's a big day, this one deserves reposting... one of the best things on youtube
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The west fork (particularly southern end) is largely over 100' deep, which is substantial. I think it gets to like 160'ish. Not 360' like Sebago however. Most years it does not freeze over, with a few exceptions. Definitely Feb 2015 it was something out of the arctic (see below). I was a bit surprised our chilly January hasn't done the trick. Coves are frozen however.
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Main body of water not frozen over at Quabbin yet.
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1.75" here, pure fluff
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Much as that run sucked, I'd have to take the over on the mesoscale stuff in the hills. Wintertime PRE... they should rip dendrites a couple hours even if they whiff the main event.
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more of a split camp. some members almost miss the phase completely, others hug compared to the mean
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I like how the baroclinic zone sets up near the coast out ahead of the system behind the departing HP to the east and the incoming N stream s/w. Bodes well for heavy precip... on top of that associated with the rapid deepening of course.
