radarman

That line turned out to be a massive fail as well.

Fargo?

it's super frustrating when the 18z HRRR and the 3km initialize totally off. We already had cells in SNE at hr00 and by hour 1 both could already be tossed. It's like radar data didn't make it in.

Wingaersheik is cool but the parking situation is horrendous, especially coming from out here. And unless you're renting a house w/ a parking sticker a lot of the Cape bay beaches are no goes as well. Marconi and Coast Guard, also Salisbury are really the best bets for access. Even Misquamicut can be tough at times in spite of that huge lot.

well the 12z 3km gets stuff going earlier out here in W MA and W CT at the expense of the line later on. Goes bonkers with the instability and keeps stuff discrete. Honestly I'm pretty skeptical based on those soundings earlier but look out if it happened to be onto something.

decent line through most of CT and W MA mainly south of the pike before falling apart ORH->east It could be overdone, but it's something

The best lapse rates are from like 850 to 600 at present, and of course as we heat up and clear out this shallow inversion it'll extend from the surface up. The upper levels are sort of meh. And that applies to both lapse rates and winds. I kind of think the tornado risk may be slightly underplayed, but the severe hail and straight line wind risk might be overplayed. Heavy downpours regardless, albeit hopefully transient enough to avoid flash flood risk.

tossed 3km nam has consistently done better for convection here so far this year

RIP Gary England Met him more than once. Legend. https://www.oklahoman.com/story/entertainment/2025/06/10/friday-night-in-the-big-town-oklahomas-master-meteorologist-gary-england-dies-at-85/84115807007/

Nice. Didn't see that.

That last bit that came through the southern portions of the pioneer valley was totally garden variety.

Storms finally triggering on the tail end, maybe outflow from earlier was enough to get it done

I'd probably go to 116 and Meadow St on the north side of town in the fields. Really good visibility over there.

Not bad at all

That cell over W ORH county seems to be the best thing going right now. Maybe it could clip HubbDave but probably skirt him just to the south. Seems like we needed a little relief to promote cumulus growth. Valleys just not cutting it in spite of the pooling dews.

If I had to chase I'd probably take my chances with the surface based instability in the valley S of HFD and just hope something pops. Could bust completely but higher upside IMO. Often further north has better dynamics but I just don't see them today.

I can't get excited at all for setups with no shear and New England style high instability You want to give me >4k mucape pulsers maybe I'll raise an eyebrow, but otherwise meh

That's been happening for a couple weeks now. Not sure if it's the result of DDOS attacks (these govt servers just get hammered all the time) or some broken/overloaded proxy servers that need replacing. I kind of suspect that the cybersecurity scanning tools (tenable, etc) that are employed constantly are almost acting like DOS attacks with the port scans and the proxy server can't handle all the incoming requests. The repeating pattern of a couple minutes of down time, and then fine for several hours suggests it.

They got hit then too. The 2013 storm I think was the largest tornado on record and killed those chasers but some think the 2011 tornado was up there with the strongest tornadoes on record. Tossed a 1.9 million pound oil rig.

Don't forget Irene. And not just here either. Super outbreak 4/27. Joplin 5/22. Major outbreak 5/24 (El Reno, et al).

Get industrial vinegar, otherwise yeah that should do the trick. And thank you for not spraying roundup.

51, thin overcast, breeze

First thunderclap of the day

After a pretty extended period of dry and often sunny that line came through with heavy rain. Still pouring. No thunder however.