radarman

Yeah you can see backfilling over the northern part of the Catskills. They've already done well and should keep stacking up. Flakes have begun here after a pretty solid period of virga

I got like 2.5" on Boxing Day in Noho. Went to a funeral the next morning and in spots was bare ground due to winds.

10% ABV cans down there today?

West of the spine IMO

I'm thinking a glorified snow squall NOP, with ----sn before and after a 60-90 minute slug

19/-5 Snowflakes will be falling like dandruff Dandruff will be falling like snowflakes

Agree about the dry air... what might sometimes be small flakes in a subsidence zone w/ a heavy band to the west will just sublimate entirely. Brief heavy burst should yield an inch or two.

Catamount should be skiing well on Saturday. It's been pretty rare for the Taconics to maybe jack a snowstorm in recent years. Possibly an early season event like 3-4 years ago that rained on most of us.

We caught about an inch at the last

Agree. And we do understand that blocking has been a thorn in their side forever, but the euro completely spit the bit on the 12/2 storm. The GFS did pretty badly on the 12/14 system. They all basically failed inside day 3 for today. And then you have what you mentioned above. They frickin nailed 12/19 though, that's for sure

Models have been atrocious this month Seriously

Temps in the valley generally 35 or 36. Would be snow with any rates but there's no rates.

Out here I'm kind of thinking a March like system on Tuesday. Cold column but warmish BL. Elevation gradient locally. Upside down with paste esp in the valley bottoms all stuck to trees by the end. Inflow of moisture channeling up the valley, favoring hills EOR. Low end advy event above 400' or so. CMC like but not exactly. We shall see.

Tell me it's not winter while you're freezing to death on east winds at Fenway

I doubt it would. It isn't about hitting climo averages. I think most would sign for a 3 footer and then spring. I'd sign for 1" a day for the next 4 mos myself.

QPF ramping down on the GFS. Will a 6" partially glacial pack withstand a 48hr warmup and maybe 3/4" rain? My guess is yeah, and even if not a coating to measurable seems kind of likely before christmas anyway.

with respect to that surface hp around the 22nd/23rd, there isn't much to suggest we're gonna run a big moisture plume into it right now and even a 6z gfs front ender doesn't have a lot of support at this time (including from 12z). But maybe a deamplifying wave of some kind could be in play on the front side of the ridge going up in the center of the CONUS. Normally that's not gonna excite most people, but could be the difference in a white Christmas for some.

I'll take my chances with stout HP at this range on that model in the upcoming pattern

glad we don't live at H5 for a while

shovel off the rink before the cutter folks... great now and might still be good after. Anything unshoveled will likely be skunked.

should finish up with about 2" here.

Yeah I just pulled up the 12/2 event where it was raining hard there and we don't really see anything similar. Blockage/trees aren't going away obv. In that event I do see very faint hints of filtering near the radar (very low levels) along the isodop and the clutter removal may be 'tricked' by strong signal but velocity near zero... Today's event has much less signal especially near the ground. The low level winds are basically nil, metar at KTAN reporting calm so velocity is again near zero even though it's not associated with the isodop this time. My guess is it's still thinking clutter in certain areas, or in this case maybe some other kind of false signal... But it is definitely a filter of some kind not blockage.

1" new

Such a great start to the skating season. Folks already on the CT river Oxbow as of yesterday. Almost every pond in play out here. Only drawback is some were already frozen when the snow came on 12/2. I looked through the records and we're colder than 12/05 and 12/77 to date. Maybe 12/89 beats it. That might be it. Impressive.